United Parcel Service, Inc (UPS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $99.6B
United Parcel Service, Inc
UPS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $104.49 to $104.58 (+0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −7.8% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($58.10 to $164.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $78.73 – $187.08 · fair‑value band $58.10 – $164.93 · the $103.20 price screens below the $104.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
United Parcel Service, Inc (UPS) currently trades at $103.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $104.58, implying the stock looks roughly 1.3% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, United Parcel Service, Inc generated revenue of $88.3B at a net margin of 5.9%. Revenue declined 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.4%. Net debt stands at $26.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $58.10 (bear case) to $164.93 (bull case); at $103.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at 1%, UPS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($126.88) versus Asset-Based ($14.56). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S.
Full company description
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
United Parcel Service, Inc reported revenue of $88.7B in FY2025 versus $97.2B in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was $5.6B in FY2025, compounding −18.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- UPS Announces Quarterly Dividend
- Is United Parcel Service (UPS) the Best Dividend Stock in the Industrial Sector?
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 216 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 191,200 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +145% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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