FedEx Corporation (FDX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $75.1B
FedEx Corporation
FDX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $265.52 to $347.68 (+30.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 10% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($215.18 to $465.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $215.18 (bear) to $465.65 (bull), base $347.68. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 66/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $104.48 – $337.49 · fair‑value band $215.18 – $465.65 · the $315.87 price screens below the $347.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
FedEx Corporation (FDX) currently trades at $315.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $347.68, implying the stock looks roughly 10.1% undervalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, FedEx Corporation generated revenue of $91.9B at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 8.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.9%. Net debt stands at $29.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $215.18 (bear case) to $465.65 (bull case); at $315.87, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 10%, FDX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($370.52) versus Asset-Based ($88.86). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
FedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments.
Full company description
FedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments. The company offers transportation services, including express, freight, less-than-truckload freight, and time-specific freight-shipping; and small-package ground delivery services. It also provides e-commerce and digital solutions; dataworks; printing and shipping management, including digital printing, professional finishing, document creation, design solutions, direct mail, signs and graphics, custom-branded boxes, copying, computer rental, free Wi-Fi, corporate print solutions, shredding, expedited U.S. passport processing and renewal, and digital notarization; packing services, as well as packing supplies and boxes; document and business services; and retail access for package transportation. In addition, the company offers logistics services, air and ocean freight-forwarding and cargo transportation, specialty transportation, customs brokerage and clearance, trade management tools and data, and door-to-door solutions; and third party logistics and supply chain management solutions, such as inbound logistics, warehousing and distribution, fulfillment, contract packaging and product configuration, systems integration, returns process and disposition, test, repair, refurbishment, and product liquidation. Further, it provides sales, marketing, administrative, information technology, and back-office support services. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
FedEx Corporation reported revenue of $94.7B in FY2026 versus $93.5B in FY2022, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $4.4B in FY2026, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 216 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 191,200 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +145% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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