Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Zto Express Cayman Inc HK$175, price HK$153, upside +14.5%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$114.35 – HK$229.59 · fair‑value band HK$107.72 – HK$272.50 · the HK$153.10 price screens below the HK$175.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services.
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057) currently trades at HK$153.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$175.36, implying the stock looks roughly 12.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$318.92 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$153.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$63.34, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$107.72 (bear) to HK$272.50 (bull), the price of HK$153.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Zto Express Cayman Inc reported revenue of 47.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 30.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +12.0%/yr. Reported net income was 8.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +16.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$126B (≈ $16.0B) · P/E ratio 13.7 · P/S ratio 2.53 · EPS (TTM) HK$11.84 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 18.5% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 15%, 2057 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$107.72Fair Value HK$175.36Bull HK$272.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$5.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.2% vs 20.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 20%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.6% a year for the price and +7.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 213 stocks
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Is Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$175.36 versus a price of HK$153.10, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2057?
Our model-based fair value for Zto Express Cayman Inc is HK$175.36 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$153.10.
What is the quality score of 2057?
Zto Express Cayman Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$175.36 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$107.72, optimistic scenario HK$272.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zto Express Cayman Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$175.36, about +15% upside versus a price of HK$153.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$107.72, optimistic scenario HK$272.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
Zto Express Cayman Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 51.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Zto Express Cayman Inc pay a dividend?
Zto Express Cayman Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zto Express Cayman Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2057 use?
Our models discount Zto Express Cayman Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zto Express Cayman Inc that is +3.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zto Express Cayman Inc grew +13.7 % a year. The price currently implies +3.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zto Express Cayman Inc (+3.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.12 %: that much free cash flow Zto Express Cayman Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zto Express Cayman Inc it is HK$175.36 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$153.10. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zto Express Cayman Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2057 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$153.10, fair value HK$175.36, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2057?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$153.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$175.36). For Zto Express Cayman Inc the two are HK$22.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zto Express Cayman Inc worth?
The market values Zto Express Cayman Inc at about HK$126B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$153.10; our models calculate a fair value of HK$175.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2057?
Our models span a range for Zto Express Cayman Inc: cautious scenario HK$107.72, base HK$175.36, optimistic HK$272.50 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$153.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2057?
Zto Express Cayman Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$175.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.6, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 2057?
The PEG ratio of Zto Express Cayman Inc is 1.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zto Express Cayman Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2057 from its 52-week high?
Zto Express Cayman Inc trades at HK$153.10, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$204.00 and 9% above the low of HK$140.15 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$175.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zto Express Cayman Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zto Express Cayman Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$153.10, calculated fair value HK$175.36 (+15%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2057 calculated?
We run Zto Express Cayman Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$175.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Zto Express Cayman Inc currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$153.10. Our model-based fair value is HK$175.36, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zto Express Cayman Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$107.72 to HK$272.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057) come from?
Earnings per share at Zto Express Cayman Inc grew +22.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +21.6 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zto Express Cayman Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
The market capitalisation of Zto Express Cayman Inc is HK$126B (≈ $16.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zto Express Cayman Inc is 2.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
Earnings per share at Zto Express Cayman Inc are HK$11.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
The dividend yield of Zto Express Cayman Inc is 3.2% (payout 40.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
The net margin of Zto Express Cayman Inc is 18.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zto Express Cayman Inc is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zto Express Cayman Inc is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
The operating margin of Zto Express Cayman Inc is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
Revenue at Zto Express Cayman Inc is growing +22.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057)?
Earnings per share at Zto Express Cayman Inc are growing +9.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zto Express Cayman Inc (2057) carry?
The net debt of Zto Express Cayman Inc is 1.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 27, 2026