Linzhou Heavy Machinery Group (002535) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.0B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥3.31 to ¥1.58 (−52.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +9.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥1.13 to ¥2.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.43 – ¥5.80 · fair‑value band ¥1.13 – ¥2.27 · the ¥2.51 price screens above the ¥1.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Linzhou Heavy Machinery Group (002535) currently trades at ¥2.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.58, implying the stock looks roughly 37.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Linzhou Heavy Machinery Group generated revenue of 996M CNY at a net margin of -6.6%. Revenue declined 42.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.1%. Net debt stands at 936M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.13 (bear case) to ¥2.27 (bull case); at ¥2.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -37%, 002535 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥3.56) versus Asset-Based (¥0.4900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Linzhou Heavy Machinery Group Co.,Ltd manufactures and sells coal mining machinery in China. It operates through two segments, Coal Mining Machinery and Comprehensive Services; and Military Industry.
Full company description
Linzhou Heavy Machinery Group Co.,Ltd manufactures and sells coal mining machinery in China. It operates through two segments, Coal Mining Machinery and Comprehensive Services; and Military Industry. The company provides hydraulic supports, scraper and belt conveyors, loaders, coal mining and tunneling machines, continuous mine hoists, iris recognition products, electro-hydraulic control systems, and cast and forged parts. It also engages in the military equipment manufacturing and high-tech service projects for space satellite data applications; provision of coal mine operation and financial leasing services; steel casting and forging business; and integration of energy equipment manufacturing, as well as involved in the sale, repair, and leasing of coal mining machinery and explosion-proof electrical equipment. Linzhou Heavy Machinery Group Co.,Ltd was founded in 1982 and is based in Linzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Linzhou Heavy Machinery Group reported revenue of ¥1.1B in FY2025 versus ¥454M in FY2021, a compound +25.5%/yr. Reported net income was −¥47.4M in FY2025.
of which total revenue −2.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
002535 screens 37% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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