Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value of Vestas Wind Systems A/S DKK 125, price DKK 184, upside -32.0%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 82.56 – kr 276.41 · fair‑value band kr 93.80 – kr 156.33 · the kr 184.00 price screens above the kr 125.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 10, 2026.
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Vestas Wind Systems A/S engages in the design, manufacture, installation, and services of wind turbines the United States, Denmark, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Power Solutions and Service.
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The Power Solutions segment offers onshore and offshore wind power plants, wind turbines, development sites, etc. The Service segment engages in the sale of service contracts, spare parts, and related activities. Vestas Wind Systems A/S was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Aarhus, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS) currently trades at kr 184.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 125.06, 32.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 203.17 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 184.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 19.83, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 93.80 (bear) to kr 156.33 (bull), the price of kr 184.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vestas Wind Systems A/S reported revenue of €18.8B in FY2025 versus €15.6B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was €778M in FY2025, compounding +55.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 184B DKK (≈ $27.7B) · P/E ratio 22.4 · P/S ratio 0.93 · EPS (TTM) kr 8.22 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 30.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −32%, VWS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 93.80Fair Value kr 125.06Bullkr 156.33
Price kr 184.00 · Upside -32.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 5.92 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+24.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.8% vs 2.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
2025 sits 172% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.8% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from solid ROE and cash flows supported by an expanding service backlog, yet its main weakness is the thin evidence of a durable moat and limited differentiation signals.
Main risk: Project execution risks in turbine installation could weigh more heavily on results and pressure margins amid still lumpy order volumes.
Vestas keeps adding orders in Europe and North America that pair new turbines with 20- to 30-year service contracts. These deals enlarge the service backlog, which already makes up more than half the total order book and supplies steadier cash flows than equipment sales alone. At the same time, rising interest rates lift financing costs for developers and order volumes stay lumpy. Will the growing service revenue cushion margin swings in turbine installation, or will project execution risks weigh more heavily on results?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 811 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−32.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)30.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B7.17× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.37× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow18.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.4× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.55× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vestas Wind Systems A/S Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VWS
Frequently asked questions
Is Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 125.06 versus a price of kr 184.00, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VWS?
Our model-based fair value for Vestas Wind Systems A/S is kr 125.06 (as of Oct 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 184.00.
What is the quality score of VWS?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 125.06 (as of Oct 10, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 93.80, optimistic scenario kr 156.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vestas Wind Systems A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 125.06, about −32% upside versus a price of kr 184.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 93.80, optimistic scenario kr 156.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €20.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 10, 2026).
Does Vestas Wind Systems A/S pay a dividend?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.40% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vestas Wind Systems A/S would have to grow free cash flow by +1.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Oct 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VWS use?
Our models discount Vestas Wind Systems A/S at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vestas Wind Systems A/S that is +1.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vestas Wind Systems A/S grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +1.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vestas Wind Systems A/S (+1.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.02 %: that much free cash flow Vestas Wind Systems A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vestas Wind Systems A/S it is kr 125.06 per share (as of Oct 10, 2026), against a price of kr 184.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vestas Wind Systems A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 10, 2026, VWS trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 184.00, fair value kr 125.06, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VWS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 184.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 125.06). For Vestas Wind Systems A/S the two are kr 58.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vestas Wind Systems A/S worth?
The market values Vestas Wind Systems A/S at about 184B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 10, 2026). Per share that is kr 184.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 125.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VWS?
Our models span a range for Vestas Wind Systems A/S: cautious scenario kr 93.80, base kr 125.06, optimistic kr 156.33 per share (as of Oct 10, 2026, price kr 184.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VWS?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.4 (as of Oct 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 125.06 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 30.2 (reported for FY2025: 31.9). Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 7.2, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
What is the PEG ratio of VWS?
The PEG ratio of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 0.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 10, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vestas Wind Systems A/S (as of Oct 10, 2026): return on equity 30.9%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VWS from its 52-week high?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S trades at kr 184.00, about 16% below its 52-week high of kr 219.10 and 53% above the low of kr 120.03 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 125.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vestas Wind Systems A/S?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vestas Wind Systems A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 10, 2026: price kr 184.00, calculated fair value kr 125.06 (−32%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VWS calculated?
We run Vestas Wind Systems A/S through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 125.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Vestas Wind Systems A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was kr 184.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 125.06, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vestas Wind Systems A/S right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 156.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS) come from?
Earnings per share at Vestas Wind Systems A/S grew −3.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin −10.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vestas Wind Systems A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
The market capitalisation of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 184B DKK (≈ $27.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 0.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
Earnings per share at Vestas Wind Systems A/S are kr 8.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
The dividend yield of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 0.4% (payout 11.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 12.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
The net margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 30.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
The operating margin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
Revenue at Vestas Wind Systems A/S is growing +26.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS)?
Earnings per share at Vestas Wind Systems A/S are growing +833% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS) hold?
Vestas Wind Systems A/S holds more cash than debt, €996M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 10, 2026