Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp ¥1.73, price ¥8.72, upside -80.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.50 – ¥15.44 · fair‑value band ¥1.29 – ¥2.16 · the ¥8.72 price screens above the ¥1.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation engages in the film screening and related businesses in China. It is also involved in theatrical distribution; film and television production; merchandise business; provision of advertising services; and projection equipment and related facilities.
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Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation engages in the film screening and related businesses in China. It is also involved in theatrical distribution; film and television production; merchandise business; provision of advertising services; and projection equipment and related facilities. The company was formerly known as Guangzhou Jin Yi Movie Investment Group Company Limited and changed its name to Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation in December 2010. Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation was founded in 2004 and is based in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905) currently trades at ¥8.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.73, 80.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥8.05 per share, and 6 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥8.72 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.3100, and 19 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.29 (bear) to ¥2.16 (bull), the price of ¥8.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp reported revenue of 1.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was 29.5M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.3B CNY (≈ $490M) · P/S ratio 3.21 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2600 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity −78.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.2% · Operating margin −2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −80%, 002905 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.29Fair Value ¥1.73Bull ¥2.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.8% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−22.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22.5% vs −19.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−85% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.7% a year for the price.
Compare Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 220 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−80.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−11.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−2.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−51.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
P/B5.78× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.55× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF1.7× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 6
HEALTH (low debt)76· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 49
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002905
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.73 versus a price of ¥8.72, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002905?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp is ¥1.73 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.72.
What is the quality score of 002905?
Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.73 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.29, optimistic scenario ¥2.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.73, about −80% upside versus a price of ¥8.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.29, optimistic scenario ¥2.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 890M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.3 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002905 use?
Our models discount Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp that is -1.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp grew +14.3 % a year. The price currently implies -1.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (-1.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.06 %: that much free cash flow Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp it is ¥1.73 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of ¥8.72. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 002905 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.72, fair value ¥1.73, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002905?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.73). For Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp the two are ¥6.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp worth?
The market values Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp at about 3.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.72; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002905?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp: cautious scenario ¥1.29, base ¥1.73, optimistic ¥2.16 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price ¥8.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −78.8%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002905 from its 52-week high?
Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp trades at ¥8.72, about 42% below its 52-week high of ¥15.04 and 29% above the low of ¥6.75 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price ¥8.72, calculated fair value ¥1.73 (−80%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002905 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥8.72. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.73, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp is 3.3B CNY (≈ $490M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp is 3.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp are ¥−0.2600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp is −78.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp is −3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp is growing −51.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp are growing −30.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp (002905) carry?
The net debt of Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corp is 1.7B CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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