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Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 14, 2026: fair value of Telefónica, S.A $6.97, price $4.24, upside +64.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 29, 2026
Telefónica, S.A
0A2Y · LSECheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $6.97 · Strongly undervalued (+64.4%)
!Quality 47/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −1.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.28 – $4.46 · fair‑value band $5.24 – $6.97 · the $4.24 price screens below the $6.97 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Spain, Brazil, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
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Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Spain, Brazil, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The company offers digital services for residential customers, such as entertainment, home connectivity and security; and advanced solutions for businesses and public administrations, including cloud, cybersecurity, IoT, artificial intelligence, and professional services. It also provides wholesale services to other operators; fixed and wireless telephony services. It is also involved in the wholesale commercialization of a fiber-to-the-home network; and manages borrowing activities. In addition, the company offers ecosystem services, such as devices, health, insurance, video content, solar energy, alarm systems, advertising, financial services and education, etc.; traffic, connection fees, regular network usage fees, interconnection, network and equipment leasing, and handset sales; and other digital services comprising Pay TV and value-added services. Telefónica, S.A. was incorporated in 1924 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
Stock analysis
Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y) currently trades at $4.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.97, implying the stock looks roughly 39.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.97 per share, and 5 of the 8 models we run sit above the $4.24 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.16, and 3 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.24 (bear) to $6.97 (bull), the price of $4.24 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Telefónica, S.A reported revenue of €35.1B in FY2025 versus €39.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€4.3B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.7T · P/S ratio 74.7 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1000 · Net margin −12.3% · Return on equity −8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% · Operating margin 13.3% · Revenue (TTM) €35.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 64%, 0A2Y screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.24
Fair Value $6.97
Bull $6.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$9.29
$15.10
$25.56
75
Growth DCF
$9.29
$15.10
$24.40
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.32
$4.65
$6.97
68
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$9.29
$15.10
$25.56
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.32
$4.65
$6.97
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$4.65
$6.97
$8.13
65
Multiples
EV/EBIT
n/a
$2.32
$3.49
59
EV/Revenue
n/a
$1.16
$2.32
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.16
$2.32
$2.32
55
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$9.29
$15.10
$24.40
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.32
$4.65
$8.13
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
47/100
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Profitability
14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
51
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.5% (2021) → 5.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.7% a year for the price and −1.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−4.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.9%
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Compare Telefónica, S.A with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Communication Services sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Communication Services
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Mobile Limited 80941 | HK$67.30 | HK$114.85 | +71% |
| Verizon Communications Inc VZ | $45.87 | $70.27 | +53% |
| T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS | $162.98 | $272.88 | +67% |
| AT&T Inc T | $24.48 | $51.11 | +109% |
| Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL | ₹1,741 | ₹1,883 | +8% |
| China Telecom Corporation 601728 | ¥6.16 | ¥8.36 | +36% |
| Saudi Telecom Company 7010 | 43.22 SAR | 41.80 SAR | −3% |
| Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z74 | 4.28 SGD | 2.16 SGD | −50% |
| Swisscom AG SCMN | CHF 639.00 | CHF 505.18 | −21% |
| Telstra Group TLS | A$4.83 | A$4.43 | −8% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.97 versus the last price from Aug 14, 2026 of $4.24, about +64% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0A2Y?
Our model-based fair value for Telefónica, S.A is $6.97 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 14, 2026): $4.24.
What is the quality score of 0A2Y?
Telefónica, S.A has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.97 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.24, optimistic scenario $6.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telefónica, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.97, about +64% upside versus the last price from Aug 14, 2026 of $4.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.24, optimistic scenario $6.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
Telefónica, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €35.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telefónica, S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -6.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -2.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0A2Y use?
Our models discount Telefónica, S.A at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Telefónica, S.A that is -6.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Telefónica, S.A grew -2.8 % a year. The price currently implies -6.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.98 %: that much free cash flow Telefónica, S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Telefónica, S.A it is $6.97 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $4.24. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Telefónica, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0A2Y trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.24, fair value $6.97, a gap of about +64% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0A2Y?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.97). For Telefónica, S.A the two are $2.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Telefónica, S.A worth?
The market values Telefónica, S.A at about $2.7T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $4.24; our models calculate a fair value of $6.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0A2Y?
Our models span a range for Telefónica, S.A: cautious scenario $5.24, base $6.97, optimistic $6.97 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $4.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 0A2Y?
The PEG ratio of Telefónica, S.A is 0.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
Balance-sheet figures for Telefónica, S.A (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −8.9%, debt of 1.97 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0A2Y from its 52-week high?
Telefónica, S.A trades at $4.24, about 5% below its 52-week high of $4.46 and 11% above the low of $3.82 (as of Aug 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Telefónica, S.A?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Telefónica, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $4.24, calculated fair value $6.97 (+64%), Quality Score 47/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0A2Y calculated?
We run Telefónica, S.A through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Telefónica, S.A currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 14, 2026 and stands at $4.24. Our model-based fair value is $6.97, about +64% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Telefónica, S.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.24). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Telefónica, S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
The market capitalisation of Telefónica, S.A is $2.7T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Telefónica, S.A is 74.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
Earnings per share at Telefónica, S.A are $−0.1000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
The net margin of Telefónica, S.A is −12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Telefónica, S.A is −8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Telefónica, S.A is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
The operating margin of Telefónica, S.A is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
Revenue at Telefónica, S.A is growing −12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y)?
Earnings per share at Telefónica, S.A are growing +26.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Telefónica, S.A (0A2Y) carry?
The net debt of Telefónica, S.A is €25.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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