Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK 112, price DKK 216, upside -48.4%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines.
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Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; Vaxchora, an oral vaccine for immunization against cholera; and Vivotif/Typhoral, an oral vaccine for immunization against typhoid fever. It is also developing MVA-BN WEV, that is in phase 2 trial for the treatment of encephalitis viruses. It operates in the United States, Denmark, Canada, France, Germany, Singapore, England, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, Austria, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB) currently trades at kr 216.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 111.66, 48.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 224.73 per share, and 2 of the 23 models we run sit above the kr 216.20 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at kr 40.28, and 21 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 41.58 (bear) to kr 229.76 (bull), the price of kr 216.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bavarian Nordic A/S reported revenue of 1.9B DKK in FY2020 versus 1.0B DKK in FY2016, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was 278M DKK in FY2020, compounding +73.5%/yr from FY2016.
Key figures
Market cap 12.2B DKK (≈ $1.8B) · P/S ratio 2.05 · Net margin 15.0% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% · Operating margin −0.7% · Revenue growth (YoY) −21.4% · EPS growth (YoY) −92.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −48%, 0DPB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 41.58Fair Value kr 111.66Bull kr 229.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+179.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
’16
’17
’18
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’20
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.3% (2016) → 20.5% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Air Freight & Logistics” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5266 stocks
Beats the sector median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−72.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)19.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−21.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
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Is Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 111.66 versus a price of kr 216.20, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0DPB?
Our model-based fair value for Bavarian Nordic A/S is kr 111.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 216.20.
What is the quality score of 0DPB?
Bavarian Nordic A/S has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 111.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 41.58, optimistic scenario kr 229.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bavarian Nordic A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 111.66, about −48% upside versus a price of kr 216.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 41.58, optimistic scenario kr 229.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bavarian Nordic A/S it is kr 111.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 216.20. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bavarian Nordic A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0DPB trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 216.20, fair value kr 111.66, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0DPB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 216.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 111.66). For Bavarian Nordic A/S the two are kr 104.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bavarian Nordic A/S worth?
The market values Bavarian Nordic A/S at about 12.2B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 216.20; our models calculate a fair value of kr 111.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0DPB?
Our models span a range for Bavarian Nordic A/S: cautious scenario kr 41.58, base kr 111.66, optimistic kr 229.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 216.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bavarian Nordic A/S (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.7%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0DPB from its 52-week high?
Bavarian Nordic A/S trades at kr 216.20, about 10% below its 52-week high of kr 240.91 and 25% above the low of kr 172.50 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 111.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bavarian Nordic A/S?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value FLOMIC, REETECH, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bavarian Nordic A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 216.20, calculated fair value kr 111.66 (−48%), Quality Score 49/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0DPB calculated?
We run Bavarian Nordic A/S through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 111.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bavarian Nordic A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 216.20. Our model-based fair value is kr 111.66, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bavarian Nordic A/S right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 41.58 to kr 229.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Bavarian Nordic A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
The market capitalisation of Bavarian Nordic A/S is 12.2B DKK (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bavarian Nordic A/S is 2.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
The net margin of Bavarian Nordic A/S is 15.0% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bavarian Nordic A/S is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bavarian Nordic A/S is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
The operating margin of Bavarian Nordic A/S is −0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
Revenue at Bavarian Nordic A/S is growing −21.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bavarian Nordic A/S (0DPB)?
Earnings per share at Bavarian Nordic A/S are growing −92.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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