Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock TRY 63.19, price TRY 359, upside -82.4%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7.17 TRY – 434.00 TRY · fair‑value band 45.66 TRY – 82.34 TRY · the 358.50 TRY price screens above the 63.19 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi engages in research, development, engineering, production, testing, assembly, integration, sale, support, consultancy, and trading of software, equipment, systems, tools, materials, and platforms in turkey.
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It operates in six divisions: Communication and Information Technologies; Microelectronics, Guidance & Electro-Optics; Avionics and Guidance Systems Vice Presidency; Integrated Defence Systems Technologies; Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems; and Transportation, Security, Energy, Automation and Healthcare Systems.
The company offers military communication and information, mission critical communication, avionics and navigation, electro-optic, guidance and seeker, land and weapon, naval and underwater, air and missile, transportation and energy, and security and health systems; satellite and space technologies; radar technologies; electronic warfare system technologies; and command, control, communication and computer systems.
It also provides geographic information system; business development and repair services; and consultancy services, as well as operates in the fields of augmented reality, artificial intelligence, simulation software, research, development, and design and engineering.
In addition, the company is involved in serial production, maintenance and repair activities of visible precision optical and electro optical devices; designing of electronic industry and integrated circuit; marketing and business development business; research, designing, development, and engineering activities of weapons and weapons systems; after-sales services of electronic components within the field of military power electronics; and commercial and industrial activities related to electromechanical industrial products and slip ring.
The company was incorporated in 1975 and is headquartered in Ankara, Turkey. ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi is a subsidiary of Turkish Armed Forces Foundation.
Stock analysis
Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS) currently trades at 358.50 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 63.19 TRY, 82.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 130.70 TRY per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the 358.50 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 31.32 TRY, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 45.66 TRY (bear) to 82.34 TRY (bull), the price of 358.50 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported revenue of 180B TRL in FY2025 versus 20.1B TRL in FY2021, a compound +73.0%/yr. Reported net income was 29.9B TRL in FY2025, compounding +43.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.6T TRY (≈ $32.8B) Large · P/E ratio 43.6 · P/S ratio 8.26 · EPS (TTM) 8.22 TRY · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 18.2% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 104% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −82%, ASELS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.3400 TRY to 210.34 TRY). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear45.66 TRYFair Value 63.19 TRYBull82.34 TRY
Price 358.50 TRY · Upside -82.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (6.45 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+72.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +51.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+27.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+61.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+46.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.7% a year for the price and +22.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Strong order inflows and production expansions provide solid near-term momentum, yet sparse details on lasting edges and government linkages limit confidence in durable profitability.
Main risk: Execution challenges and competitive pressures in defense electronics could constrain the company's ability to convert its order backlog into sustained margin improvements.
ASELSAN reported a record order backlog above 30 billion dollars with nine-month revenue up 28 percent in real terms and new contracts worth 14 billion dollars. The company is also expanding production capacity, including the first phase of its Oğulbey Technology Base now online. Will the surge in orders and investments drive lasting profitability gains, or will execution and competitive pressures in defense electronics cap the results?
Compare Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 232 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−82.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.0% · Above median
Return on assets6.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)18.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)22.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)32.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)43.6× · Pricier than median
P/B6.53× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)8.26× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow152.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA31.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)60· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASELS
Frequently asked questions
Is Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 63.19 TRY versus a price of 358.50 TRY, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASELS?
Our model-based fair value for Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 63.19 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 358.50 TRY.
What is the quality score of ASELS?
Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 63.19 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 45.66 TRY, optimistic scenario 82.34 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 63.19 TRY, about −82% upside versus a price of 358.50 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 45.66 TRY, optimistic scenario 82.34 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 198B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS pay a dividend?
Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS currently shows a dividend yield of 0.12% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS would have to grow free cash flow by +61.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +62.1 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASELS use?
Our models discount Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS at 13.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS that is +61.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS grew +62.1 % a year. The price currently implies +61.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (+61.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.66 %: that much free cash flow Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS it is 63.19 TRY per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 358.50 TRY. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, ASELS trades above its calculated fair value: price 358.50 TRY, fair value 63.19 TRY, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASELS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (358.50 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (63.19 TRY). For Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS the two are 295.31 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS worth?
The market values Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS at about 1.6T TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 358.50 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 63.19 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASELS?
Our models span a range for Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS: cautious scenario 45.66 TRY, base 63.19 TRY, optimistic 82.34 TRY per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 358.50 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASELS?
Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.6 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 63.19 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.5, P/S 8.3, EV/EBITDA 31.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASELS from its 52-week high?
Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS trades at 358.50 TRY, about 17% below its 52-week high of 434.00 TRY and 104% above the low of 175.78 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 63.19 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 358.50 TRY, calculated fair value 63.19 TRY (−82%), Quality Score 45/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASELS calculated?
We run Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 63.19 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 358.50 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 63.19 TRY, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (82.34 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (45.66 TRY to 82.34 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
The market capitalisation of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 1.6T TRY (≈ $32.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 8.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
Earnings per share at Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS are 8.22 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
The dividend yield of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 0.1% (payout 5.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
The net margin of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 18.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
The operating margin of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 22.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
Revenue at Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is growing +32.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +72.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS)?
Earnings per share at Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS are growing +61.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ASELS) carry?
The net debt of Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 14.0B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 28, 2026