LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A $15.58, price $58.73, upside -73.5%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.92 – $89.72 · fair‑value band $15.58 – $18.08 · the $58.73 price screens above the $15.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally.
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LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Olefins and Polyolefins"Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins"Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; and Technology. The company produces and markets olefins and co-products, such as ethylene, aromatics, propylene and butadiene; polyolefins; polyethylene; polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers; propylene oxide and derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer and acetyls. It also produces and markets compounding and solutions, including polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, and engineered composites and colors. In addition, it develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts and serves food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, and paints and coatings applications. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD) currently trades at $58.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.58, 73.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $44.01 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $58.73 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $12.53, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.58 (bear) to $18.08 (bull), the price of $58.73 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A reported revenue of $30.2B in FY2025 versus $46.2B in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$738M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $18.9B · P/E ratio 0.0 · EPS (TTM) $17.57 · Dividend yield 8.2% · Net margin −2.4% · Return on equity −6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% · Operating margin 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −73%, 0EDD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.58Fair Value $15.58Bull $18.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.8% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.4% (2020) → 3.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.5% a year for the price and −3.1% for the forecasts.
Compare LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 341 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−73.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−2.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.52× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.64× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF49.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 2
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 63
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)24· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0EDD
Frequently asked questions
Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.58 versus a price of $58.73, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0EDD?
Our model-based fair value for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A is $15.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $58.73.
What is the quality score of 0EDD?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.58, optimistic scenario $18.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.58, about −73% upside versus a price of $58.73 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.58, optimistic scenario $18.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $29.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A pay a dividend?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.17% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A would have to grow free cash flow by +37.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0EDD use?
Our models discount LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A that is +37.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies +37.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (+37.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.53 %: that much free cash flow LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A it is $15.58 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $58.73. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 0EDD trades above its calculated fair value: price $58.73, fair value $15.58, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0EDD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($58.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.58). For LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A the two are $43.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A worth?
The market values LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A at about $18.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $58.73; our models calculate a fair value of $15.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0EDD?
Our models span a range for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A: cautious scenario $15.58, base $15.58, optimistic $18.08 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $58.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0EDD?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.0 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 13.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
Balance-sheet figures for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −6.0%, debt of 1.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0EDD from its 52-week high?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A trades at $58.73, about 28% below its 52-week high of $81.26 and 44% above the low of $40.65 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $58.73, calculated fair value $15.58 (−73%), Quality Score 40/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0EDD calculated?
We run LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $58.73. Our model-based fair value is $15.58, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD) come from?
Earnings per share at LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A grew −5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin −9.1 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A
How large is the market capitalisation of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
The market capitalisation of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A is $18.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
Earnings per share at LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A are $17.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
The dividend yield of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A is 8.2% (payout 27.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
The net margin of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A is −2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
The operating margin of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
Revenue at LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A is growing −6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD)?
Earnings per share at LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A are growing −29.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (0EDD) carry?
The net debt of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A is $12.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 32.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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