Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Zangge Holding Co Ltd stock ¥17.47, price ¥69.19, that is 74.8% below the price, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥14.46 – ¥92.04 · fair‑value band ¥14.15 – ¥24.86 · the ¥69.19 price screens above the ¥17.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Zangge Mining Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, researches, develops, manufactures, and sells potassium chloride and lithium carbonate in China and internationally.
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The company is also involved in mineral product development; investment activities; trade business; research and development of lithium extraction technology; and import and export of goods activities. In addition, it engages in the mining of copper, silver, and molybdenum deposits.
The company was formerly known as Zangge Holding Company Limited and changed its name to Zangge Mining Company Limited in December 2021. Zangge Mining Company Limited was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Golmud, China.
Stock analysis
Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408) currently trades at ¥69.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.47, 75% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥40.15 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the ¥69.19 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥9.94, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥14.15 (bear) to ¥24.86 (bull), the price of ¥69.19 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Zangge Holding Co Ltd reported revenue of 3.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 3.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding +28.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 108B CNY (≈ $16.3B) Large · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 16.2 · EPS (TTM) ¥4.62 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 108% · Return on equity 43.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 24.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −75%, 000408 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥14.15Fair Value ¥17.47Bull¥24.86
Price ¥69.19 · Downside -74.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.79 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +78.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +75.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 75.0% / 15.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 43%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.15 per share, median 0.55 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.0% a year for the price.
AI conclusion: The main strength is the Mami Cuo lithium project now at design capacity adding low-cost volume alongside steady potash and lithium output, while the main weak point remains heavy dependence on non-operating gains from the Julong Copper stake.
Main risk: Most earnings derive from the equity stake in Julong Copper without operational control, so any change in dividends or performance at that partner could sharply reduce Zangge's reported profits and cash flow.
Bull case: By scaling its own potash and lithium output through the Mami Cuo project and African assets while securing more control or diversification, Zangge could lessen dependence on the copper stake and stabilise earnings from core operations.
Bear case: If regulatory halts recur or the Julong partner withholds dividends while DLE competitors gain share, Zangge's lithium segment could stay constrained and overall earnings could remain volatile and heavily tied to external factors.
Zangge reports sharply higher nine-month profits, with most of the gain coming from its equity stake in Julong Copper while its own potash and lithium segments deliver steady output and improving margins. The new Mami Cuo lithium project has reached design capacity, adding volume at lower costs even as lithium prices fluctuate. Our models currently see it as undervalued. Will the core chemical operations scale enough to reduce reliance on the copper investment, or will that stake continue to drive most of the earnings?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 340 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−74.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)43.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets21.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)160.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)58.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)73.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B6.67× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)24.11× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow30.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA39.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)72· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zangge Holding Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000408
Frequently asked questions
Is Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥17.47 versus a price of ¥69.19, about 75% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000408?
Our model-based fair value for Zangge Holding Co Ltd is ¥17.47 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥69.19.
What is the quality score of 000408?
Zangge Holding Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥17.47 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥14.15, optimistic scenario ¥24.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zangge Holding Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥17.47, about 75% lower versus a price of ¥69.19 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥14.15, optimistic scenario ¥24.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
Zangge Holding Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Zangge Holding Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Zangge Holding Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.61% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zangge Holding Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +15.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.3 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000408 use?
Our models discount Zangge Holding Co Ltd at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zangge Holding Co Ltd that is +15.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zangge Holding Co Ltd grew +13.3 % a year. The price currently implies +15.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zangge Holding Co Ltd (+15.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.29 %: that much free cash flow Zangge Holding Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zangge Holding Co Ltd it is ¥17.47 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of ¥69.19. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zangge Holding Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 000408 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥69.19, fair value ¥17.47, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000408?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥69.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥17.47). For Zangge Holding Co Ltd the two are ¥51.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zangge Holding Co Ltd worth?
The market values Zangge Holding Co Ltd at about 108B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is ¥69.19; our models calculate a fair value of ¥17.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000408?
Our models span a range for Zangge Holding Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥14.15, base ¥17.47, optimistic ¥24.86 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price ¥69.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000408?
Zangge Holding Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥17.47 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 29.6. Other multiples: P/B 6.7, P/S 24.1, EV/EBITDA 39.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zangge Holding Co Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 43.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000408 from its 52-week high?
Zangge Holding Co Ltd trades at ¥69.19, about 25% below its 52-week high of ¥92.04 and 31% above the low of ¥53.01 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥17.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zangge Holding Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Hengli Petrochemical Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zangge Holding Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price ¥69.19, calculated fair value ¥17.47 (−75%), Quality Score 78/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000408 calculated?
We run Zangge Holding Co Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥17.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Zangge Holding Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥69.19. Our model-based fair value is ¥17.47, about 75% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zangge Holding Co Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥24.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408) come from?
Earnings per share at Zangge Holding Co Ltd grew +12.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.1 %, EBIT margin +7.7 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zangge Holding Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
The market capitalisation of Zangge Holding Co Ltd is 108B CNY (≈ $16.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zangge Holding Co Ltd is 16.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
Earnings per share at Zangge Holding Co Ltd are ¥4.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
The dividend yield of Zangge Holding Co Ltd is 3.6% (payout 54.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
The net margin of Zangge Holding Co Ltd is 108% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zangge Holding Co Ltd is 43.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zangge Holding Co Ltd is 24.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
The operating margin of Zangge Holding Co Ltd is 58.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
Revenue at Zangge Holding Co Ltd is growing +73.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408)?
Earnings per share at Zangge Holding Co Ltd are growing +161% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Zangge Holding Co Ltd (000408) hold?
Zangge Holding Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.7B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026