Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd stock ¥19.26, price ¥16.98, upside +13.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.45 – ¥31.20 · fair‑value band ¥13.48 – ¥25.04 · the ¥16.98 price screens below the ¥19.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Hengli Petrochemical Co.,Ltd. engages in petrochemical industry in China and internationally. The company operates through Petrochemical Business and Polyester Fiber Business segments.
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It offers oil refining products, chemical products, purified terephthalic acid, polyester chips, and polyester fibers; and engineering plastics, functional films, and biodegradable materials. The company also provides civilian and industrial polyester filament; and polyester filament.
In addition, it engages in wholesale and retail activities; transportation industry; and industrial investment activities, as well as other financial services.
Further, the company is involved in sale of petroleum, synthetic materials, rubber products, metal chains, metal materials, metal mines, textiles and raw materials, coal, and non-metallic minerals; wholesale of hardware; business management consulting; non-residential real estate leasing; domestic trade agency; and offshore trade operations.
The company was formerly known as Dalian Rubber and Plastic Machinery Co., Ltd and changed its name to Hengli Petrochemical Co.,Ltd. in May 2016. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in Dalian, China.
Stock analysis
Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346) currently trades at ¥16.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥19.26, implying the stock looks roughly 12% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥60.77 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥16.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥5.50, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥13.48 (bear) to ¥25.04 (bull), the price of ¥16.98 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd reported revenue of 201B CNY in FY2025 versus 198B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was 7.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 120B CNY (≈ $18.0B) Large · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.60 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 5.8% · Return on equity 16.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 13%, 600346 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥13.48Fair Value ¥19.26Bull¥25.04
Price ¥16.98 · Upside +13.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.11 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV¥13.80¥16.87¥19.5774
Residual Income¥8.55¥9.56¥11.8974
FCF DCF¥54.46¥100.27¥222.7972
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥54.46¥100.27¥222.7972
Owner Earnings¥42.09¥96.06¥204.8868
5Y Revenue Exit¥27.03¥49.11¥82.7668
5Y EBITDA Exit¥32.25¥60.77¥101.9670
5Y P/E Exit¥21.34¥37.29¥55.9467
10Y Revenue Exit¥34.38¥61.38¥98.8363
10Y EBITDA Exit¥38.79¥70.74¥123.7564
10Y P/E Exit¥31.20¥51.19¥80.8361
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥6.83¥43.71¥61.1161
Lynch FV¥12.66¥18.08¥23.5059
PEG = 1.0¥12.66¥18.08¥23.5055
EPV¥13.80¥16.87¥19.5774
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥10.95¥22.89¥36.5264
DDM Multi-Stage¥10.95¥19.24¥24.0064
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥12.81¥17.09¥21.3663
P/S Multiple¥12.81¥17.09¥21.3658
P/B Multiple¥16.90¥22.53¥28.1655
EV/EBIT¥8.10¥15.68¥23.2563
EV/EBITDA¥14.09¥23.67¥33.2465
EV/Revenue¥5.07¥13.51¥21.9550
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥4.10¥5.50¥8.2154
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥52.34¥112.20¥222.1471
Rev-Margin DCF¥27.03¥49.78¥82.4768
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥8.55¥9.56¥11.8974
ROIC Compounder¥16.79¥27.26¥35.7869
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥16.38¥23.40¥30.4265
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.1% vs 13.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.8% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Hengli's integrated oil-coal-chemical platform supports strong rebounds in refining and PTA margins, yet high leverage with debt above equity remains the central constraint.
Main risk: Rivals such as Rongsheng Petrochemical and Shenghong Petrochemical are commissioning large new integrated refining and PTA complexes which could increase domestic supply and force lower prices or margins on Hengli's PTA, polyester and petrochemical outputs.
Bull case: Hengli could leverage its domestic scale and operational flexibility to optimise processes and capture share from less efficient rivals amid capacity additions.
Bear case: Persistent oversupply from rival expansions combined with stricter carbon rules could erode margins and limit growth in Hengli's core refining and chemicals segments.
Hengli's integrated oil-coal-chemical platform has driven a strong rebound, with nine-month net income more than doubling year on year as refining and PTA margins improved. US sanctions on its Dalian refining unit, however, have disrupted some international ties and raised questions about future feedstock options. Will the company's domestic scale and operational flexibility absorb these pressures, or will they limit expansion into global markets?
Compare Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 341 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+13.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.92× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600346
Frequently asked questions
Is Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥19.26 versus a price of ¥16.98, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600346?
Our model-based fair value for Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is ¥19.26 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.98.
What is the quality score of 600346?
Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥19.26 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥13.48, optimistic scenario ¥25.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥19.26, about +13% upside versus a price of ¥16.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥13.48, optimistic scenario ¥25.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 195B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.71% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -6.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600346 use?
Our models discount Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd that is -6.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd grew +5.7 % a year. The price currently implies -6.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (-6.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.09 %: that much free cash flow Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd it is ¥19.26 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of ¥16.98. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 600346 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥16.98, fair value ¥19.26, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600346?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥19.26). For Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd the two are ¥2.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd at about 120B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.98; our models calculate a fair value of ¥19.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600346?
Our models span a range for Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥13.48, base ¥19.26, optimistic ¥25.04 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price ¥16.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600346?
Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥19.26 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.8, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 600346?
The PEG ratio of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is 1.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 16.6%, debt of 0.92 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600346 from its 52-week high?
Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd trades at ¥16.98, about 36% below its 52-week high of ¥26.74 and 13% above the low of ¥15.00 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥19.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price ¥16.98, calculated fair value ¥19.26 (+13%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600346 calculated?
We run Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥19.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd currently trades 12% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥16.98. Our model-based fair value is ¥19.26, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (¥13.48 to ¥25.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
The market capitalisation of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is 120B CNY (≈ $18.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is 0.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
Earnings per share at Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd are ¥1.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
The dividend yield of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is 1.7% (payout 18.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
The net margin of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is 5.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
The operating margin of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
Revenue at Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346)?
Earnings per share at Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd are growing +228% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd (600346) carry?
The net debt of Hengli Petrochemical Co Ltd is 103B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026