Dow Inc (DOW) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $21.8B
Dow Inc
DOW · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $21.03 to $42.06 (+100.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +5.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 39% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide ($20.60 to $63.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.83 – $55.65 · fair‑value band $20.60 – $63.52 · the $30.30 price screens below the $42.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Dow Inc (DOW) currently trades at $30.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.06, implying the stock looks roughly 38.8% undervalued today. We read business quality at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dow Inc generated revenue of $39.3B at a net margin of -7.2%. Revenue declined 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -15.3%. Net debt stands at $15.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.60 (bear case) to $63.52 (bull case); at $30.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at 39%, DOW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($37.71) versus Asset-Based ($14.88). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
Full company description
Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers polyurethanes, including propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and polyether polyols; aromatic isocyanates and fully formulated polyurethane systems; and chlor-alkali and vinyl comprising chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chloride monomer; and construction chemicals consisting of cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions, as well as coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. The Performance Materials & Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings; and acrylics-based building blocks, silicon metals, siloxanes, and intermediates. The company also engages in the property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. The company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Dow Inc reported revenue of $40.0B in FY2025 versus $55.0B in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.6B in FY2025.
Watch DOW: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- New Dow CEO drives ‘transformation’ back to profitability amid oil market upheaval
- Dow (DOW) Delivers Strong Q2 Results As Pricing And Cost Actions Pay Off
- Dow Q2 Earnings Call Focuses on Cost Actions and Portfolio Shift
- How to Earn $500 a Month From Dow Stock Ahead of Q2 Earnings
Peer Group
Chemicals · 334 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BASF SE BASN | 1,034 MXN | 532.13 MXN | -49% |
| Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 | ¥20.32 | ¥20.17 | -1% |
| Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 | ¥42.85 | ¥23.35 | -46% |
| PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT | 1,690 IDR | 1,628 IDR | -4% |
| LG Chem, Ltd 051910 | 260,500 KRW | 587,755 KRW | +126% |
| Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation 1326 | 66.10 TWD | 6.79 TWD | -90% |
| PTT Global Chemical Public Company PTTGC | 35.50 THB | 18.21 THB | -49% |
| 542812 542812 | ₹4,369 | ₹791.05 | -82% |
| Indorama Ventures Public Company IVL | 24.50 THB | 17.95 THB | -27% |
| Navin Fluorine International Limited NAVINFLUOR | ₹7,647 | ₹2,200 | -71% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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