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Cencora (0HF3) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Cencora $157, price $308, upside -49.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · GB · Home US

C Some data Sep 24, 2026

Cencora

0HF3 · LSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $156.87 · Strongly overvalued (−49.1%)
!Quality 56/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.8% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.7% dividend yield · Well covered
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $115.50 to $392.49
!Weak on future: 19 out of 100
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$376.67 $65.65 Fair Value $156.87 May 2018 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $65.65 – $376.67 · fair‑value band $115.50 – $392.49 · the $308.24 price screens above the $156.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Cencora, Inc. sources and distributes pharmaceutical products in the United States and internationally. The company's U.S.

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Cencora, Inc. sources and distributes pharmaceutical products in the United States and internationally. The company's U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment distributes generic and injectable pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter healthcare products, home healthcare supplies and equipment, and related services to acute care hospitals and health systems, independent and chain retail pharmacies, mail order pharmacies, medical clinics, long-term care and alternate site pharmacies, and other customers; distributes plasma and other blood products, vaccines, and other specialty pharmaceutical products; provides pharmacy management, staffing, and other consulting services; supply management software to retail and institutional healthcare providers; packaging solutions to institutional and retail healthcare providers; clinical trial support, product post-approval, and commercialization support services; data analytics, outcomes research, and other services for biotechnology and pharmaceutical manufacturers; pharmaceuticals, vaccines, parasiticides, diagnostics, micro feed ingredients, and other products to the companion animal and production animal markets; sales force services to manufacturers; and offers other services to physicians who specialize in various disease states, such as oncology, as well as to other healthcare providers, including hospitals and dialysis clinics. Its International Healthcare Solutions segment provides international pharmaceutical wholesale and related service, and global commercialization services; distributes pharmaceuticals, other healthcare products, and related services to pharmacies, doctors, health centers, and hospitals; and offers specialty transportation and logistics services for the biopharmaceutical industry. The company was formerly known as AmerisourceBergen Corporation and changed its name to Cencora, Inc. in August 2023. Cencora, Inc. was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Cencora (0HF3) currently trades at $308.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $156.87, 49.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $325.35 per share, and 2 of the 25 models we run sit above the $308.24 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $31.19, and 23 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $115.50 (bear) to $392.49 (bull), the price of $308.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Cencora reported revenue of $321B in FY2025 versus $214B in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.6B in FY2025, compounding +0.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $59.8B · P/E ratio 0.4 · EPS (TTM) $8.20 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 107% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Operating margin 1.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −49%, 0HF3 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $115.50 Fair Value $156.87 Bull $392.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.90 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $190.53 $340.23 $588.23 78
Growth DCF $188.90 $325.35 $543.15 76
Owner Earnings $117.93 $213.31 $371.34 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $190.53 $340.23 $588.23 78
Owner Earnings $117.93 $213.31 $371.34 74
5Y Revenue Exit $136.40 $230.99 $356.54 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $165.86 $291.27 $446.33 74
5Y P/E Exit $127.96 $213.73 $309.31 70
10Y Revenue Exit $149.62 $244.19 $383.72 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $172.58 $287.18 $456.67 67
10Y P/E Exit $148.09 $231.88 $345.35 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $49.87 $225.58 $309.34 64
Lynch FV $58.93 $84.19 $109.44 61
PEG = 1.0 $58.93 $84.19 $109.44 57
EPV $81.42 $95.78 $108.18 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $18.11 $36.09 $54.65 67
DDM Multi-Stage $18.11 $31.19 $38.10 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $115.50 $154.00 $192.50 63
P/S Multiple $93.50 $124.67 $155.83 58
P/B Multiple $24.01 $32.02 $40.02 55
EV/EBIT $159.58 $215.96 $272.34 66
EV/EBITDA $168.13 $227.37 $286.60 67
EV/Revenue $111.16 $162.90 $214.63 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.56 $4.77 $7.12 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $188.90 $325.35 $543.15 76
Economic Profit
Residual Income $23.30 $33.13 $72.04 70
ROIC Compounder $88.26 $111.90 $138.06 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $95.45 $136.36 $177.26 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.0% vs 7.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.9% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.2%

0HF3 screens overvalued: fair value 49% below the price. Compare with 534755 →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Trading Companies & Distributors” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5293 stocks

Beats the sector median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −49.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 107.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 0.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 4.23× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.4× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)19 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)15 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Cencora · Fair Value
$156.87 −49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cencora Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0HF3

Frequently asked questions

Is Cencora (0HF3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $156.87 versus a price of $308.24, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0HF3?
Our model-based fair value for Cencora is $156.87 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $308.24.
What is the quality score of 0HF3?
Cencora has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cencora (0HF3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $156.87 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $115.50, optimistic scenario $392.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cencora stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $156.87, about −49% upside versus a price of $308.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $115.50, optimistic scenario $392.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cencora (0HF3)?
Cencora reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $329B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Cencora pay a dividend?
Cencora currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cencora (0HF3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cencora would have to grow free cash flow by +12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0HF3 use?
Our models discount Cencora at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cencora that is +12.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cencora (0HF3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cencora grew +11.1 % a year. The price currently implies +12.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cencora (0HF3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cencora (+12.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cencora (0HF3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.05 %: that much free cash flow Cencora produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cencora (0HF3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cencora it is $156.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $308.24. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cencora stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HF3 trades above its calculated fair value: price $308.24, fair value $156.87, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HF3?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($308.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($156.87). For Cencora the two are $151.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cencora worth?
The market values Cencora at about $59.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $308.24; our models calculate a fair value of $156.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HF3?
Our models span a range for Cencora: cautious scenario $115.50, base $156.87, optimistic $392.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $308.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0HF3?
Cencora trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $156.87 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cencora (0HF3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cencora (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 107.1%, debt of 4.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0HF3 from its 52-week high?
Cencora trades at $308.24, about 18% below its 52-week high of $376.67 and 22% above the low of $253.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $156.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cencora?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 534755, SCTL, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cencora stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $308.24, calculated fair value $156.87 (−49%), Quality Score 56/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HF3 calculated?
We run Cencora through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $156.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Cencora itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cencora (0HF3)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $308.24. Our model-based fair value is $156.87, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cencora right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($115.50 to $392.49). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Cencora (0HF3) come from?
Earnings per share at Cencora grew +9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.9 %, EBIT margin −1.4 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Cencora

How large is the market capitalisation of Cencora (0HF3)?
The market capitalisation of Cencora is $59.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Cencora (0HF3)?
Earnings per share at Cencora are $8.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cencora (0HF3)?
The dividend yield of Cencora is 0.7% (payout 28.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cencora (0HF3)?
The net margin of Cencora is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cencora (0HF3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cencora is 107% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cencora (0HF3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cencora is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cencora (0HF3)?
The operating margin of Cencora is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cencora (0HF3)?
Revenue at Cencora is growing +3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cencora (0HF3)?
Earnings per share at Cencora are growing +128% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cencora (0HF3) carry?
The net debt of Cencora is $3.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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