Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Avis Budget Group Inc. $359, price $112, upside +220.8%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.68 – $706.50 · fair‑value band $178.50 – $539.11 · the $111.86 price screens below the $358.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Avis Budget Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides car and truck rentals, car sharing, and ancillary products and services to businesses and consumers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia, and Australasia.
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Avis Budget Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides car and truck rentals, car sharing, and ancillary products and services to businesses and consumers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia, and Australasia. The company operates the Avis brand, which offers vehicle rental and other mobility solutions to the commercial and leisure segments of the travel industry and the Zipcar brand, a car sharing network that offers vehicle rental and other mobility solutions comprising budget car rental and budget truck. It also operates various other car rental brands, such as Payless, Apex, Maggiore, Morini Rent, FranceCars, AmicoBlu, Turiscar, and ACL Hire and McNicoll vehicle Hire. The company was formerly known as Cendant Corporation and changed its name to Avis Budget Group, Inc. in September 2006. Avis Budget Group, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4) currently trades at $111.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $358.80, implying the stock looks roughly 68.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $358.80 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the $111.86 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $39.99, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $178.50 (bear) to $539.11 (bull), the price of $111.86 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Avis Budget Group Inc. reported revenue of $11.7B in FY2025 versus $9.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$889M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.9B · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $31.87 · Net margin −7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0% · Operating margin 1.8% · Revenue (TTM) $11.8B · Revenue growth (YoY) +4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 84% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 221%, 0HK4 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $178.50Fair Value $358.80Bull $539.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($24.10 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.5% (2020) → 9.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Road & Rail” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5266 stocks
Beats the sector median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets2.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−5.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.33× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.3× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)21· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 37
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avis Budget Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0HK4
Frequently asked questions
Is Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $358.80 versus a price of $111.86, about +221% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0HK4?
Our model-based fair value for Avis Budget Group Inc. is $358.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $111.86.
What is the quality score of 0HK4?
Avis Budget Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $358.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $178.50, optimistic scenario $539.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avis Budget Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $358.80, about +221% upside versus a price of $111.86 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $178.50, optimistic scenario $539.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
Avis Budget Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avis Budget Group Inc. it is $358.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $111.86. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avis Budget Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HK4 trades below its calculated fair value: price $111.86, fair value $358.80, a gap of about +221% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HK4?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($111.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($358.80). For Avis Budget Group Inc. the two are $246.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avis Budget Group Inc. worth?
The market values Avis Budget Group Inc. at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $111.86; our models calculate a fair value of $358.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HK4?
Our models span a range for Avis Budget Group Inc.: cautious scenario $178.50, base $358.80, optimistic $539.11 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $111.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0HK4?
Avis Budget Group Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $358.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avis Budget Group Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0HK4 from its 52-week high?
Avis Budget Group Inc. trades at $111.86, about 84% below its 52-week high of $706.50 and 28% above the low of $87.59 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $358.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avis Budget Group Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value STL, ABCINDQ, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avis Budget Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $111.86, calculated fair value $358.80 (+221%), Quality Score 33/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HK4 calculated?
We run Avis Budget Group Inc. through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $358.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Avis Budget Group Inc. currently trades 69 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $111.86. Our model-based fair value is $358.80, about +221% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avis Budget Group Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($178.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($178.50 to $539.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Avis Budget Group Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
The market capitalisation of Avis Budget Group Inc. is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
Earnings per share at Avis Budget Group Inc. are $31.87 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
The net margin of Avis Budget Group Inc. is −7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avis Budget Group Inc. is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
The operating margin of Avis Budget Group Inc. is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
Revenue at Avis Budget Group Inc. is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4)?
Earnings per share at Avis Budget Group Inc. are growing +52.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4) generate?
The free cash flow of Avis Budget Group Inc. is −$1.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Avis Budget Group Inc. (0HK4) carry?
The net debt of Avis Budget Group Inc. is $28.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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