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Holcim AG (0QKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Holcim AG €77.79, price €64.52, upside +20.6%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Holcim AG
0QKY · LSEUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value €77.79 · Undervalued (+20.6%)
✓Quality 70/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 83.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.6% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €17.12 – €79.89 · fair‑value band €53.96 – €108.45 · the €64.52 price screens below the €77.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa.
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Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa. It provides foundation, flooring, walling and roofing products, including cement, clinker, and other cementitious materials; ready-mix concrete; aggregates, such as crushed stone, gravel, and sand; and precast, concrete products, asphalts, mortars, roofing systems, insulation systems, tile adhesives, facade solutions, and contracting and services. The company also provides digital services through HOLCIM+ platform and digital concrete services. Its products are used in infrastructure projects, such as tunnels, railways and train stations, airports and ports, and bridges; housing projects, including individual and collective housing; commercial projects comprising offices, retail, and public buildings; and industrial projects consisting of renewable energy, oil and gas, and mining. The company sells its products under the ECOPact, ECOPlanet, Aggneo, Hydromedia, ZinCo Holcim, Elevate, Airium, PRB Group, Cantillana, Flachdach Technologie, Izolbet, Disensa, Tector, DYNAMax, Agilia, Ductal, Artevia, Humes, Tensolite, Compaktuna, and other service brands. The company was formerly known as LafargeHolcim Ltd and changed its name to Holcim AG in May 2021. Holcim AG was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Holcim AG (0QKY) currently trades at €64.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €77.79, implying the stock looks roughly 17.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €86.76 per share, and 15 of the 23 models we run sit above the €64.52 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €27.22, and 8 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €53.96 (bear) to €108.45 (bull), the price of €64.52 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Holcim AG reported revenue of €27.0B in FY2023 versus €26.7B in FY2019, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was €3.0B in FY2023, compounding +8.1%/yr from FY2019.
Key figures
Market cap €36.9B · P/E ratio 0.1 · P/S ratio 0.01 · EPS (TTM) €3.72 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 11.3% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 21%, 0QKY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €53.96
Fair Value €77.79
Bull €108.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€59.20
€82.56
€129.26
80
Growth DCF
€61.88
€84.77
€126.66
78
Residual Income
€40.38
€46.14
€57.69
76
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€59.20
€82.56
€129.26
80
5Y Revenue Exit
€44.89
€65.43
€96.24
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
€59.83
€90.77
€132.99
75
5Y P/E Exit
€52.48
€78.31
€110.17
71
10Y Revenue Exit
€48.56
€67.29
€88.24
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
€59.02
€84.01
€112.09
69
10Y P/E Exit
€54.51
€75.78
€97.28
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€34.70
€57.29
€69.47
67
EPV
€44.72
€53.46
€61.10
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€22.19
€27.22
€32.57
69
DDM Multi-Stage
€22.19
€29.67
€38.95
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€65.07
€86.76
€108.45
63
P/S Multiple
€50.96
€67.95
€84.93
58
P/B Multiple
€65.07
€86.76
€108.45
55
EV/EBIT
€67.68
€92.82
€117.95
66
EV/EBITDA
€71.01
€97.25
€123.49
67
EV/Revenue
€39.84
€60.22
€80.61
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€21.80
€29.21
€43.60
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€61.88
€84.77
€126.66
78
Rev-Margin DCF
€44.89
€66.81
€95.07
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€40.38
€46.14
€57.69
76
ROIC Compounder
€44.79
€54.73
€65.85
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€46.36
€66.22
€86.09
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
70/100
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Profitability
43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
’12
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’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
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’20
’21
’22
’23
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.4% vs 9.1%, steady
Profit margin 2018 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 16%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.6% a year for the price and −8.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2024 (sales)−14.8%
Forecast 2025 (sales)−14.8%
Forecast 2026 (sales)−14.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.9%
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Compare Holcim AG with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRH plc CRH | $85.04 | $74.79 | −12% |
| Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM | $484.30 | $207.85 | −57% |
| UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO | ₹11,155 | ₹4,719 | −58% |
| Vulcan Materials Company VMC | $245.00 | $131.66 | −46% |
| China Jushi Co 600176 | ¥43.06 | ¥28.26 | −34% |
| Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM | ₹3,191 | ₹1,245 | −61% |
| Amrize AG AMRZ | $38.22 | $35.08 | −8% |
| James Hardie Industries plc JHX | A$36.98 | A$8.06 | −78% |
| Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 | ¥17.51 | ¥28.02 | +60% |
| Ambuja Cements Limited AMBUJACEM | ₹383.80 | ₹194.48 | −49% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Holcim AG (0QKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €77.79 versus a price of €64.52, about +21% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0QKY?
Our model-based fair value for Holcim AG is €77.79 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €64.52.
What is the quality score of 0QKY?
Holcim AG has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Holcim AG (0QKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €77.79 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €53.96, optimistic scenario €108.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Holcim AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €77.79, about +21% upside versus a price of €64.52 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €53.96, optimistic scenario €108.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
Holcim AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €15.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Holcim AG pay a dividend?
Holcim AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.63% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Holcim AG (0QKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Holcim AG would have to grow free cash flow by -3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.3 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0QKY use?
Our models discount Holcim AG at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Holcim AG that is -3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Holcim AG (0QKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Holcim AG grew -0.3 % a year. The price currently implies -3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.75 %: that much free cash flow Holcim AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Holcim AG it is €77.79 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of €64.52. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Holcim AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 0QKY trades below its calculated fair value: price €64.52, fair value €77.79, a gap of about +21% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€64.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€77.79). For Holcim AG the two are €13.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Holcim AG worth?
The market values Holcim AG at about €36.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is €64.52; our models calculate a fair value of €77.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QKY?
Our models span a range for Holcim AG: cautious scenario €53.96, base €77.79, optimistic €108.45 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price €64.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0QKY?
Holcim AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €77.79 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Holcim AG (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 2.1%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QKY from its 52-week high?
Holcim AG trades at €64.52, about 19% below its 52-week high of €79.89 and 7% above the low of €60.37 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €77.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Holcim AG?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, Vulcan Materials Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Holcim AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price €64.52, calculated fair value €77.79 (+21%), Quality Score 70/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QKY calculated?
We run Holcim AG through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €77.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Holcim AG currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €64.52. Our model-based fair value is €77.79, about +21% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Holcim AG right now?
A fairly wide model range (€53.96 to €108.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Holcim AG (0QKY) come from?
Earnings per share at Holcim AG grew +11.2 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.3 %, EBIT margin +3.0 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Holcim AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
The market capitalisation of Holcim AG is €36.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Holcim AG is 0.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
Earnings per share at Holcim AG are €3.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
The dividend yield of Holcim AG is 2.6% (payout 45.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
The net margin of Holcim AG is 11.3% (fiscal year 2023). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Holcim AG is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Holcim AG is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Holcim AG (0QKY)?
The operating margin of Holcim AG is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Holcim AG (0QKY)?
Revenue at Holcim AG is growing −3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Holcim AG (0QKY)?
Earnings per share at Holcim AG are growing +10.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Holcim AG (0QKY) carry?
The net debt of Holcim AG is €7.7B (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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