James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$21.8B

Below-average quality, and screening another 83% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$6.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• A fairly wide model range (A$3.62 to A$6.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$25.43 – A$62.60 · fair‑value band A$3.62 – A$6.87 · the A$40.82 price screens above the A$6.87 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) currently trades at A$40.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$6.87, implying the stock looks roughly 83.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, James Hardie Industries plc generated revenue of A$4.8B at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue grew 44.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.4%. Net debt stands at A$4.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$3.62 (bear case) to A$6.87 (bull case); at A$40.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -83%, JHX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$8.15) versus Earnings-Based (A$1.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

James Hardie Industries plc engages in the manufacture and sale of fiber cement, fiber gypsum, and cement bonded boards in the United States, Australia, Europe, and New Zealand. It operates through four segments: Siding & Trim, Deck, Rail & Accessories, Australia & New Zealand, and Europe.

Full company description

James Hardie Industries plc engages in the manufacture and sale of fiber cement, fiber gypsum, and cement bonded boards in the United States, Australia, Europe, and New Zealand. It operates through four segments: Siding & Trim, Deck, Rail & Accessories, Australia & New Zealand, and Europe. The Siding & Trim segment manufactures fiber cement and PVC siding and trim products, mouldings, interior linings, and accessories under brands such as Hardie, AZEK Exteriors, and Versatex are used in both residential new construction and repair and remodel applications. The Deck, Rail & Accessories segment produces decking, railing, cladding, pergolas, cabanas, and related accessories, including wood-alternative decking and railing solutions offered under the TimberTech, ULTRALOX, and INTEX brands, as well as functional and decorative outdoor accessories, including drink rails, structural mounting posts, lighting systems and gate kits; and adjustable louvered pergola systems through StruXure. The Australia & New Zealand segment manufactures and sells fiber cement products for residential and commercial applications, including exterior cladding, interior wall linings, flooring, eaves and soffits, and façade systems, primarily under the Hardie brand. The Europe segment produces fiber gypsum products and cement-bonded boards under the fermacell brand, and fiber cement products under the Hardie brand, serving residential and commercial repair, remodel, and new construction markets. The company offers its products through a network of specialty building products distributors, lumberyards, and home improvement retailers to builder's merchants, remodelers, DIY stores, and professional contractors. James Hardie Industries plc was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

James Hardie Industries plc reported revenue of A$4.8B in FY2026 versus A$3.6B in FY2022, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$104M in FY2026, compounding −31.0%/yr from FY2022.

JHX screens 83% overvalued. Compare with CRH plc →

Peer Group

Building Materials · 253 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.