Novartis AG (0QLR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Novartis AG £122, price £117, upside +4.5%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £69.38 – £131.38 · fair‑value band £94.02 – £202.59 · the £117.00 price screens below the £122.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally.
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Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); Cosentyx to treat plaque psoriasis, pso riatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and nonradiographic axial spondy loarthritis; Kisqali, a selective oral cyclin dependent inhibitor of kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6); Promacta/Revolade to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), thrombocytopenia, and patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA); Tafinlar+Mekinist, an oral combination therapy to treat patients with certain types of cancers; and Jakavi for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and acute or chronic graftversushost disease (GvHD). It also provides Tasigna to treat philadelphia chromosomepositive chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic and/or accelerated phase; Xolair for the treatment of allergic asthma and nasal polyps or severe chronic rhinosi nusitis with nasal polyps; Ilaris to treat fever syndromes, Still's disease, and acute gouty arthritis; Pluvicto to treat prostatespecific membrane anti genpositive metastatic castrationresistant prostate cancer; Sandostatin SC and Sandostatin LAR to treat acromegaly carcinoid tumors and other types of functional gastro intestinal and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors; Zolgensma for the treatment of genetic root cause of spinal muscular atrophy; Lucentis; Leqvio to reduce LDL cholesterol; Lutathera; Scemblix; and Fabhalta. The company focuses on therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology. It has a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran), a therapy to reduce LDL cholesterol. Novartis AG was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Novartis AG (0QLR) currently trades at £117.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £122.24, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £266.58 per share, and 11 of the 25 models we run sit above the £117.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £27.14, and 14 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £94.02 (bear) to £202.59 (bull), the price of £117.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Novartis AG reported revenue of £52.9B in FY2021 versus £43.4B in FY2017, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was £24.0B in FY2021, compounding +32.9%/yr from FY2017.
Key figures
Market cap £195B · P/S ratio 3.45 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 45.4% · Return on equity 30.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% · Operating margin 34.6% · Revenue (TTM) £56.7B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 4%, 0QLR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £94.02Fair Value £122.24Bull £202.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
’17
’18
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’21
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.1% (2017) → 22.1% (2021)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−7.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)30.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)34.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novartis AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0QLR
Frequently asked questions
Is Novartis AG (0QLR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £122.24 versus a price of £117.00, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0QLR?
Our model-based fair value for Novartis AG is £122.24 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £117.00.
What is the quality score of 0QLR?
Novartis AG has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novartis AG (0QLR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £122.24 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £94.02, optimistic scenario £202.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novartis AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £122.24, about +4% upside versus a price of £117.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £94.02, optimistic scenario £202.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
Novartis AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £56.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Novartis AG pay a dividend?
Novartis AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.84% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novartis AG it is £122.24 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of £117.00. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Novartis AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 0QLR trades below its calculated fair value: price £117.00, fair value £122.24, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QLR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£117.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£122.24). For Novartis AG the two are £5.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novartis AG worth?
The market values Novartis AG at about £195B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is £117.00; our models calculate a fair value of £122.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QLR?
Our models span a range for Novartis AG: cautious scenario £94.02, base £122.24, optimistic £202.59 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price £117.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novartis AG (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 30.4%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QLR from its 52-week high?
Novartis AG trades at £117.00, about 11% below its 52-week high of £131.38 and 19% above the low of £98.03 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £122.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Novartis AG?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novartis AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price £117.00, calculated fair value £122.24 (+4%), Quality Score 76/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QLR calculated?
We run Novartis AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £122.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Novartis AG currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £117.00. Our model-based fair value is £122.24, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novartis AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (£94.02 to £202.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Novartis AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
The market capitalisation of Novartis AG is £195B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novartis AG is 3.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
The dividend yield of Novartis AG is 3.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
The net margin of Novartis AG is 45.4% (fiscal year 2021). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novartis AG is 30.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novartis AG is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novartis AG (0QLR)?
The operating margin of Novartis AG is 34.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novartis AG (0QLR)?
Revenue at Novartis AG is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Novartis AG (0QLR)?
Earnings per share at Novartis AG are growing −17.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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