Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $1.1T
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $395.92 to $396.77 (+0.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.5% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($582.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($221.95 to $582.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $176.60 – $1,236 · fair‑value band $221.95 – $582.33 · the $1,192 price screens above the $396.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) currently trades at $1,192, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $396.77, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 75/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Eli Lilly and Company generated revenue of $72.2B at a net margin of 35.0%. Revenue grew 55.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 107.5%. Net debt stands at $35.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $221.95 (bear case) to $582.33 (bull case); at $1,192, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 92% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at -67%, LLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($352.97) versus Asset-Based ($19.94). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally.
Full company description
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer. In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. Further, it provides Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache, as well as Kisubla for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. The company has collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the Jardiance product family; and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Genentech, Inc. for lebrikizumab, as well as license agreements with Almirall, S.A. for Ebglyss; and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd for orforglipron; and strategic collaboration with Ascidian Therapeutics for discovery and development of therapies for undisclosed monogenic kidney diseases. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Eli Lilly and Company reported revenue of $65.2B in FY2025 versus $28.3B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was $20.6B in FY2025, compounding +38.7%/yr from FY2021.
LLY screens 67% overvalued. Compare with Johnson & Johnson, →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- The Bull Case For Eli Lilly (LLY) Could Change Following Raised 2026 Guidance On GLP-1 Demand
- This Will be Eli Lilly’s Price in 2027 And Morgan Stanley Agrees
- LLY Q2 Earnings Call Raises Outlook as Foundayo Gains Traction
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $257.59 | $169.04 | -34% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $254.49 | $67.72 | -73% |
| Roche Holding 1RO | €377.80 | €280.03 | -26% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €108.08 | €121.54 | +12% |
| Novartis AG NVSN | 2,742 MXN | 2,379 MXN | -13% |
| AstraZeneca PLC AZN | $171.61 | $129.54 | -25% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 329.90 | kr 409.46 | +24% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $363.39 | $252.02 | -31% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $134.28 | $146.50 | +9% |
| Sanofi SNYN | 770.00 MXN | 1,251 MXN | +63% |
Compare Eli Lilly and Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Healthcare stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of LLY?
What is the quality score of LLY?
What is the revenue of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What is the net profit margin of LLY?
Does Eli Lilly and Company pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Eli Lilly and Company and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.