Roche Holding AG (RO) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CH · Market cap CHF 265B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +6.8% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range (CHF 194.73 to CHF 441.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 216.26 – CHF 379.21 · fair‑value band CHF 194.73 – CHF 441.10 · the CHF 362.80 price screens above the CHF 306.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Roche Holding AG (RO) currently trades at CHF 362.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 306.54, implying the stock looks roughly 15.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Roche Holding AG generated revenue of CHF 63.4B at a net margin of 20.3%. Revenue declined 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 37.3%. Net debt stands at CHF 27.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 194.73 (bear case) to CHF 441.10 (bull case); at CHF 362.80, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -16%, RO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (CHF 277.44) versus Asset-Based (CHF 28.20). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Roche Holding AG engages in the pharmaceuticals and diagnostics businesses in Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia, Africa, Australia, and New Zealand.
Full company description
Roche Holding AG engages in the pharmaceuticals and diagnostics businesses in Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia, Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. The company offers pharma solutions in the therapeutic areas of anaemia, blood and solid tumors, dermatology, haematology, infectious diseases, inflammatory and autoimmune, neurological disorders, ophthalmology, respiratory disorders, and transplantation. It also provides in vitro tests for the diagnosis of various diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, Covid-19, hepatitis, human papillomavirus, and others; diagnostic instruments; and digital health solutions. The company was founded in 1896 and is based in Basel, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Roche Holding AG reported revenue of CHF 61.5B in FY2025 versus CHF 62.8B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 12.9B in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.1 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
RO screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Roche (SWX:ROG) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher As Analysts Weigh Pipeline Growth
- ChemoMetec enters collaboration agreement with Roche Diagnostics
- Roche Stock Jumps as Morgan Stanley Sees Drug Breakout
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,220 | $389.47 | -68% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $260.86 | $169.04 | -35% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $248.76 | $67.72 | -73% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €115.42 | €118.21 | +2% |
| Novartis AG NVSN | 2,742 MXN | 1,964 MXN | -28% |
| AstraZeneca PLC AZN | $158.50 | $127.32 | -20% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 299.50 | kr 409.46 | +37% |
| Sanofi SNYN | 770.00 MXN | 1,041 MXN | +35% |
| GSK plc GSKN | 917.00 MXN | 879.08 MXN | -4% |
| Bayer Aktiengesellschaft BAYER | 17,685 HUF | 14,810 HUF | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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