Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Johnson & Johnson is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
- Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
- Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
- Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
At a glance
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · US
A strong business, but trading 63% above our fair value of $169.04.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Johnson & Johnson is $169.04 per share against a price of $275.23, so the fair value sits 39% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +6.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($254.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($106.21 to $254.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $134.35 – $278.43 · fair‑value band $106.21 – $254.91 · the $275.23 price screens above the $169.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Analysis
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) currently trades at $275.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $169.04, implying the stock looks roughly 62.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $206.75 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $275.23 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.70, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Johnson & Johnson generated revenue of $96.4B at a net margin of 21.8%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.4%. Net debt stands at $28.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Scenario range: $106.21 (bear) to $254.91 (bull), the price of $275.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −39%, JNJ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.36 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($206.75) versus Asset-Based ($22.70). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech.
Full company description
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular and metabolism distributed through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides a portfolio of products used in the surgery, orthopedic, cardiovascular, and vision fields distributed through wholesalers, hospitals and retailers, and used in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals and clinics. This segment also offers products and enabling technologies that support joint reconstruction, trauma, spine, sports related injuries, and others, as well as open, laparoscopic, and robotic surgical procedures; instrumentation, energy devices, stapling systems, wound closure, biosurgery products, and digital and robotic technologies; breast aesthetics and reconstruction; contact lenses under the ACUVUE brand; intraocular lenses for cataract surgery, and other products used in cataract and refractive procedures under the TECNIS brand. The company was founded in 1886 and is based in New Brunswick, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Johnson & Johnson reported revenue of $94.2B in FY2025 versus $78.7B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $26.8B in FY2025, compounding +6.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.4 % · buybacks/dilution +1.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
JNJ screens 63% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Insider trades: Nvidia, TSMC, and Johnson & Johnson among notable names
- Is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Cheap After The Louisiana Talc Verdict?
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Johnson & Johnson deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,149 | $389.47 | −66% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $256.46 | $67.72 | −74% |
| Roche Holding RO | CHF 374.60 | CHF 306.54 | −18% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €131.98 | €101.38 | −23% |
| Novartis AG NOVN | CHF 123.74 | CHF 114.90 | −7% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 295.50 | kr 409.46 | +39% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $437.23 | $252.02 | −42% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $151.00 | $146.50 | −3% |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $28.45 | $24.87 | −13% |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | $66.58 | $75.98 | +14% |
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