Amgen Inc (AMGN) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $196B

A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($339.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• A fairly wide model range ($138.86 to $339.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $172.66 – $410.95 · fair‑value band $138.86 – $339.52 · the $410.95 price screens above the $252.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Amgen Inc (AMGN) currently trades at $410.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $252.02, implying the stock looks roughly 38.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Amgen Inc generated revenue of $37.2B at a net margin of 21.0%. Revenue grew 5.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 101.3%. Net debt stands at $45.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $138.86 (bear case) to $339.52 (bull case); at $410.95, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at -39%, AMGN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($251.52) versus Asset-Based ($10.75). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; …

Full company description

Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout. It also markets other products, including PROLIA, REPATHA, OTEZLA, ENBREL, EVENITY, XGEVA, TEPEZZA, BLINCYTO, NPLATE, TEZSPIRE, KYPROLIS, ARANESP, KRYSTEXXA AND VECTIBIX, MVASI, PAVBLU, UPLIZNA, IMDELLTRA/IMDYLLTRA, AMJEVITA/AMGEVITA, TAVNEOS, NEULASTA, LUMAKRAS/LUMYKRAS, RAVICTI, PARSABIV, AIMOVIG, WEZLANA/WEZENLA, AND PROCYSBI. The company serves healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies. It distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors. The company has collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca plc for the development and commercialization of TEZSPIRE; BEONE MEDICINES LTD. to develop and commercialize Aimovig; UCB for the development and commercialization of EVENITY; Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. for rocatinlimab development and commercialization; and BeiGene, Ltd. for oncology products expansion and development. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is he

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Amgen Inc reported revenue of $36.7B in FY2025 versus $26.0B in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $7.7B in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.

AMGN screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Upcoming Dividend Run For AMGN? Nasdaq · Aug 6, 2026
• Amgen Stock Climbs as Drug Growth Outruns Obesity Setback Yahoo Finance · Aug 5, 2026
• Amgen gains after strong quarterly results and continued product momentum Yahoo Finance · Aug 5, 2026
• Notable Wednesday Option Activity: AMGN, DDOG, APP Nasdaq · Aug 5, 2026

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - General · 76 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 35/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.