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Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Thurgauer Kantonalbank £314, price £157, upside +100.3%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Thurgauer Kantonalbank
0QS4 · LSECheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value £313.50 · Strongly undervalued (+100.3%)
!Quality 47/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 37.8% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓2.3% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 60/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £96.83 – £192.46 · fair‑value band £254.07 – £413.08 · the £156.50 price screens below the £313.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Thurgauer Kantonalbank provides various banking products and services in Switzerland.
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Thurgauer Kantonalbank provides various banking products and services in Switzerland. It offers accounts; cards; mobile and instant payments, terminals, and QR invoice; mortgages and loans, including building and renovating, real estate pension, and property valuation; asset management; saving with securities; investments in securities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies; services packages; construction financing; business loans; fixed advance; capital good leasing; trade finance; foreign exchange; and digital banking. The company also provides stock exchange and markets; electronic tax statement; bank switching services; consultation; seminars; and business start-up services. It serves private individuals, companies, businesses, and public sectors. The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Weinfelden, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4) currently trades at £156.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £313.50, implying the stock looks roughly 50.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of £547.24 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the £156.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £220.11, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £254.07 (bear) to £413.08 (bull), the price of £156.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Thurgauer Kantonalbank reported revenue of £565M in FY2025 versus £393M in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was £162M in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £742M · P/E ratio 0.2 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) £7.28 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 28.7% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 100%, 0QS4 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £254.07
Fair Value £313.50
Bull £413.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (£2.78 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
£546.64
£547.24
£573.96
76
Gordon GGM
£154.07
£257.65
£367.94
68
DDM Multi-Stage
£154.07
£220.11
£282.27
67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
£154.07
£257.65
£367.94
68
DDM Multi-Stage
£154.07
£220.11
£282.27
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
£395.50
£527.33
£659.17
63
P/B Multiple
£517.19
£689.59
£861.99
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
£371.29
£497.53
£742.58
51
Economic Profit
Residual Income
£546.64
£547.24
£573.96
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
47/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Profitability
31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
98
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
’14
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−23.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.3% vs −12.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 31%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €91.54 | €105.99 | +16% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK | ₹721.20 | ₹406.44 | −44% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 32.01 SGD | 19.78 SGD | −38% |
| Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 | 63.15 SAR | 36.95 SAR | −41% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £313.50 versus a price of £156.50, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0QS4?
Our model-based fair value for Thurgauer Kantonalbank is £313.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £156.50.
What is the quality score of 0QS4?
Thurgauer Kantonalbank has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £313.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario £254.07, optimistic scenario £413.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thurgauer Kantonalbank stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £313.50, about +100% upside versus a price of £156.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £254.07, optimistic scenario £413.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
Thurgauer Kantonalbank reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £429M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thurgauer Kantonalbank pay a dividend?
Thurgauer Kantonalbank currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thurgauer Kantonalbank would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0QS4 use?
Our models discount Thurgauer Kantonalbank at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thurgauer Kantonalbank that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thurgauer Kantonalbank grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thurgauer Kantonalbank (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.69 %: that much free cash flow Thurgauer Kantonalbank produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thurgauer Kantonalbank it is £313.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £156.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thurgauer Kantonalbank stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0QS4 trades below its calculated fair value: price £156.50, fair value £313.50, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QS4?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£156.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£313.50). For Thurgauer Kantonalbank the two are £157.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thurgauer Kantonalbank worth?
The market values Thurgauer Kantonalbank at about £742M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £156.50; our models calculate a fair value of £313.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QS4?
Our models span a range for Thurgauer Kantonalbank: cautious scenario £254.07, base £313.50, optimistic £413.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £156.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0QS4 from its 52-week high?
Thurgauer Kantonalbank trades at £156.50, about 19% below its 52-week high of £192.46 and 1% above the low of £155.29 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £313.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thurgauer Kantonalbank?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thurgauer Kantonalbank stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £156.50, calculated fair value £313.50 (+100%), Quality Score 47/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QS4 calculated?
We run Thurgauer Kantonalbank through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £313.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Thurgauer Kantonalbank currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £156.50. Our model-based fair value is £313.50, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thurgauer Kantonalbank right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£254.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4) come from?
Earnings per share at Thurgauer Kantonalbank grew +3.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Thurgauer Kantonalbank
How large is the market capitalisation of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
The market capitalisation of Thurgauer Kantonalbank is £742M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Thurgauer Kantonalbank is 0.2 (as of Jul 30, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thurgauer Kantonalbank is 0.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
Earnings per share at Thurgauer Kantonalbank are £7.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
The dividend yield of Thurgauer Kantonalbank is 2.3% (payout 49.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
The net margin of Thurgauer Kantonalbank is 28.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thurgauer Kantonalbank is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thurgauer Kantonalbank is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
The operating margin of Thurgauer Kantonalbank is 39.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
Revenue at Thurgauer Kantonalbank is growing +5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4)?
Earnings per share at Thurgauer Kantonalbank are growing +6.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Thurgauer Kantonalbank (0QS4) carry?
The net debt of Thurgauer Kantonalbank is £7.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 62.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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