BNP Paribas SA (BNP) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · FR · Market cap €113B
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +10.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 28% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €31.77 – €112.60 · fair‑value band €108.35 – €180.58 · the €112.60 price screens below the €144.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
BNP Paribas SA (BNP) currently trades at €112.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €144.46, implying the stock looks roughly 28.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, BNP Paribas SA generated revenue of €49.1B at a net margin of 25.5%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at €482B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €108.35 (bear case) to €180.58 (bull case); at €112.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 28%, BNP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€322.54) versus Dividend Discount (€42.30). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BNP Paribas SA provides various banking and financial products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three divisions: Corporate & Institutional Banking; Commercial, Personal Banking & Services; and Investment & Protection Services.
Full company description
BNP Paribas SA provides various banking and financial products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three divisions: Corporate & Institutional Banking; Commercial, Personal Banking & Services; and Investment & Protection Services. The Corporate & Institutional Banking division offers capital market, securities, financing, risk management, securities clearing, custody, consulting, transaction banking, cash management, investment banking, and financial advisory services for corporate and institutional clients. Its Commercial, Personal Banking & Services division provides financing and equipment leasing services, lending, investment, financial and non-financial services, mobility, and digital banking services, as well as current accounts, savings products, bancassurance, insurance products and services, and consumer loans. The Investment & Protection Services division provides protection, savings, investment, and real estate services to support individuals, professionals, corporate clients, and institutions, as well as asset management, insurance, protection, pensions, and private banking services. The company was formerly known as Banque Nationale de Paris and changed its name to BNP Paribas SA in May 2000. BNP Paribas SA was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BNP Paribas SA reported revenue of €119B in FY2025 versus €108B in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was €12.2B in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- BNP Paribas Sees Gold Hitting $5,000 as Trump’s Pressure on the Fed Weakens the Dollar
- BNP Paribas Resets Seagate Target After Stunning AI Signal
- BNP Paribas Revamps View on Boeing Stock
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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