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China Merchants Bank Co (600036) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 929B CNY

CM China Merchants Bank Co 600036 · SHG
Price¥38.97
Fair Value¥74.10
Upside+90.2%
Quality56/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 50.5% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
5.47% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Wide moat 68/100
Evidence: High Range ¥55.57 – ¥92.62 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from ¥73.66 to ¥74.10 (+0.6%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +6.6% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 90% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥55.57). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥44.43 ¥21.80 Fair Value ¥74.10 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥21.80 – ¥44.43 · fair‑value band ¥55.57 – ¥92.62 · the ¥38.97 price screens below the ¥74.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

China Merchants Bank Co (600036) currently trades at ¥38.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥74.10, implying the stock looks roughly 90.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Bank Co generated revenue of 299B CNY at a net margin of 50.5%. Revenue grew 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 15.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥55.57 (bear case) to ¥92.62 (bull case); at ¥38.97, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 90%, 600036 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥249.85 ¥484.85 ¥913.95 80
Residual Income ¥56.34 ¥68.13 ¥144.76 76
ROIC Compounder ¥136.62 ¥204.92 ¥300.32 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥251.94 ¥506.43 ¥977.44 38
Owner Earnings ¥59.96 ¥142.58 ¥295.50 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥73.94 ¥112.52 ¥157.71 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥162.07 ¥296.42 ¥463.38 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥124.78 ¥218.60 ¥323.79 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥127.83 ¥184.81 ¥259.98 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥188.94 ¥323.64 ¥524.93 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥163.52 ¥264.90 ¥403.93 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥49.50 ¥239.18 ¥329.37 54
Lynch FV ¥63.96 ¥91.37 ¥118.78 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥63.96 ¥91.37 ¥118.78 46
EPV ¥114.92 ¥140.91 ¥164.01 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥28.79 ¥62.86 ¥105.77 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥28.79 ¥51.49 ¥65.51 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥109.20 ¥145.60 ¥182.00 63
P/S Multiple ¥30.68 ¥40.91 ¥51.13 58
P/B Multiple ¥92.82 ¥123.76 ¥154.70 55
EV/EBIT ¥188.55 ¥262.18 ¥335.81 53
EV/EBITDA ¥134.47 ¥190.07 ¥245.67 54
EV/Revenue ¥8.57 ¥20.84 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥29.72 ¥39.82 ¥59.43 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥249.85 ¥484.85 ¥913.95 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥56.34 ¥68.13 ¥144.76 76
ROIC Compounder ¥136.62 ¥204.92 ¥300.32 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥97.05 ¥138.64 ¥180.24 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥484.85) versus Asset-Based (¥39.82). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 299B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.7%
Net margin 50.5%
Return on equity 11.9%
Free cash flow 423B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 6.5
More key figures
Operating margin 62.0%
EPS (TTM) ¥5.71
Dividend yield 5.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +0.7%
Net cash 15.0B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 1
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 52
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services. It operates through Wholesale Finance Business, Retail Finance Business, and Other Business segments. It offers current, demand, time, call, savings, notice, and renminbi accounts.

Full company description

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services. It operates through Wholesale Finance Business, Retail Finance Business, and Other Business segments. It offers current, demand, time, call, savings, notice, and renminbi accounts. The company also offers loan products include personal commercial real estate, consumption, housing, and car loans; loans to finance for studying abroad; micro-business loans; mortgage loans for equipment; joint guarantee, special guarantee, and housing mortgage loan; bank acceptance, discount, liquid capital, and fixed asset loans; and loans for vessels. In addition, it offers credit cards; insurance products; open-ended funds; discount and guarantees for commercial bills, redemption of commercial bills, and guaranteed discount for commercial acceptance bills; and financial consultation, debt financing underwriting, merger and acquisition financing, and equity financing and enterprise listing services. Further, the company provides forfeiting and risk participation, escrow, cross-border RMB clearing, and interbank services; and risk and financial management, cross-border RMB and oversea financing, international factoring and settlement, and trade finance services. Additionally, it offers financial leasing and guarantee, investment and wealth management, forex option and gold trading, forex express trading, international, offshore and private banking, custody, pension, and electronic banking services. The company also operates in Hong Kong, New York, London, Singapore, Luxembourg, and Sydney. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Merchants Bank Co reported revenue of ¥338B in FY2025 versus ¥265B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥150B in FY2025, compounding +5.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
338B CNY
Latest YoY
+13.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+8.4%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y)
+15.9%
Revenue +6.2%/yr
FY21 ¥265B
FY22 ¥288B
FY23 ¥298B
FY24 ¥297B
FY25 ¥338B
Net income +5.8%/yr
FY21 ¥120B
FY22 ¥138B
FY23 ¥147B
FY24 ¥148B
FY25 ¥150B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants Bank Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600036

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Below median
Fair Value upside +90% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 50% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 62% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.5% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.56× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.76× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.11× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 26.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.11× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 39
FUTURE 9 · sector 44
PAST 48 · sector 41
HEALTH 72 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 6,175 IDR 6,087 IDR -1%
KB Financial Group 105560 184,400 KRW 213,797 KRW +16%
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 2,970 IDR 4,891 IDR +65%
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 4,310 IDR 7,841 IDR +82%
Banco Bradesco S.A BBD 5,120 ARS 10,240 ARS +100%
Shinhan Financial Group 055550 107,900 KRW 137,259 KRW +27%
Hana Financial Group 086790 136,800 KRW 193,969 KRW +42%
Lloyds Banking Group LYG 4,138 ARS 8,275 ARS +100%
Banco de Chile, CHILE 193.10 CLP 152.55 CLP -21%
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB 59,400 VND 84,201 VND +42%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Merchants Bank Co (600036) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥74.10 versus a price of ¥38.97, about +90% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600036?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Bank Co is ¥74.10 (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥38.97.
What is the quality score of 600036?
China Merchants Bank Co has a Quality Score of 56/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Merchants Bank Co (600036)?
China Merchants Bank Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 299B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600036?
The net profit margin of China Merchants Bank Co is about 50.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 50.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Merchants Bank Co pay a dividend?
China Merchants Bank Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.29% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 14, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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