China Merchants Bank Co (600036) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CN · Market cap 929B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from ¥73.66 to ¥74.10 (+0.6%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +6.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 90% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥55.57). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥21.80 – ¥44.43 · fair‑value band ¥55.57 – ¥92.62 · the ¥38.97 price screens below the ¥74.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
China Merchants Bank Co (600036) currently trades at ¥38.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥74.10, implying the stock looks roughly 90.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Bank Co generated revenue of 299B CNY at a net margin of 50.5%. Revenue grew 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 15.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥55.57 (bear case) to ¥92.62 (bull case); at ¥38.97, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 90%, 600036 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥484.85) versus Asset-Based (¥39.82). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services. It operates through Wholesale Finance Business, Retail Finance Business, and Other Business segments. It offers current, demand, time, call, savings, notice, and renminbi accounts.
Full company description
China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services. It operates through Wholesale Finance Business, Retail Finance Business, and Other Business segments. It offers current, demand, time, call, savings, notice, and renminbi accounts. The company also offers loan products include personal commercial real estate, consumption, housing, and car loans; loans to finance for studying abroad; micro-business loans; mortgage loans for equipment; joint guarantee, special guarantee, and housing mortgage loan; bank acceptance, discount, liquid capital, and fixed asset loans; and loans for vessels. In addition, it offers credit cards; insurance products; open-ended funds; discount and guarantees for commercial bills, redemption of commercial bills, and guaranteed discount for commercial acceptance bills; and financial consultation, debt financing underwriting, merger and acquisition financing, and equity financing and enterprise listing services. Further, the company provides forfeiting and risk participation, escrow, cross-border RMB clearing, and interbank services; and risk and financial management, cross-border RMB and oversea financing, international factoring and settlement, and trade finance services. Additionally, it offers financial leasing and guarantee, investment and wealth management, forex option and gold trading, forex express trading, international, offshore and private banking, custody, pension, and electronic banking services. The company also operates in Hong Kong, New York, London, Singapore, Luxembourg, and Sydney. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Merchants Bank Co reported revenue of ¥338B in FY2025 versus ¥265B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥150B in FY2025, compounding +5.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China (SEHK:1398) Tests Repo Based Loans, Is The Stock Still Cheap?
- China Merchants Bank Subsidiary Brings $3.8B Institutional Fund to BNB Chain
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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