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Catena Media plc (0RUE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Catena Media plc SEK 1.34, price SEK 3.10, upside -56.8%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Communication Services · GB · ISIN MT0001000109

CM Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Catena Media plc

0RUE · LSE

Stretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value kr 1.34 · Strongly overvalued (−56.8%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +16.8 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -10.9% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2020 11.8%
✓Low debt
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 72.63 kr 1.58 Fair Value kr 1.34 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 1.58 – kr 72.63 · fair‑value band kr 1.00 – kr 1.68 · the kr 3.10 price screens above the kr 1.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Catena Media plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides marketing services for operators of online sports betting and casino platforms in North America and Latin America. The company operates in two segments: Casino and Sports.

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Catena Media plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides marketing services for operators of online sports betting and casino platforms in North America and Latin America. The company operates in two segments: Casino and Sports. The Casino segment provides content, insights, and offers that connect people interested in slots, poker, blackjack, and other casino games with its partner online casino operators. The Sports segment publishes targeted content on sports players, teams, and fixtures to inform sports, fantasy sports, and esports betting fans and help them compare the right offers from online sports betting operators. Catena Media plc was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Gzira, Malta.

Stock analysis

Catena Media plc (0RUE) currently trades at kr 3.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.34, 56.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 1.26 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the kr 3.10 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 0.3800, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: kr 1.00 (bear) to kr 1.68 (bull), the price of kr 3.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Catena Media plc reported revenue of 106M SEK in FY2020 versus 40.0M SEK in FY2016, a compound +27.5%/yr. Reported net income was 12.5M SEK in FY2020, compounding −6.2%/yr from FY2016.

Key figures

Market cap 1.8B SEK (≈ $179M) · P/S ratio 36.6 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.0670 · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity −4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% · Operating margin 99.9% · Revenue (TTM) 49.1M SEK.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −57%, 0RUE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 1.00 Fair Value kr 1.34 Bull kr 1.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF kr 1.11 kr 1.92 kr 3.09 75
EPV kr 0.4200 kr 0.4900 kr 0.5500 74
Growth DCF kr 1.08 kr 1.77 kr 2.69 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 1.11 kr 1.92 kr 3.09 75
5Y Revenue Exit kr 0.6500 kr 1.09 kr 1.66 68
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 0.8700 kr 1.55 kr 2.38 70
5Y P/E Exit kr 0.6100 kr 1.00 kr 1.43 67
10Y Revenue Exit kr 0.8100 kr 1.26 kr 1.90 63
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 0.9500 kr 1.55 kr 2.42 64
10Y P/E Exit kr 0.8000 kr 1.21 kr 1.74 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 0.2100 kr 1.00 kr 1.38 61
Lynch FV kr 0.2700 kr 0.3800 kr 0.5000 58
PEG = 1.0 kr 0.2700 kr 0.3800 kr 0.5000 55
EPV kr 0.4200 kr 0.4900 kr 0.5500 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 0.5000 kr 0.6700 kr 0.8400 63
P/S Multiple kr 0.3900 kr 0.5200 kr 0.6500 58
P/B Multiple kr 0.3900 kr 0.5200 kr 0.6500 55
EV/EBIT kr 0.9400 kr 1.31 kr 1.69 66
EV/EBITDA kr 0.8000 kr 1.13 kr 1.46 67
EV/Revenue kr 0.3600 kr 0.5900 kr 0.8200 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.2900 kr 0.3900 kr 0.5800 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 1.08 kr 1.77 kr 2.69 74
Rev-Margin DCF kr 0.6500 kr 1.10 kr 1.63 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 0.4000 kr 0.3900 kr 0.4000 68
ROIC Compounder kr 0.4200 kr 0.4900 kr 0.5500 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 0.4300 kr 0.6100 kr 0.7900 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 53
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 19
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
46.6% (2016) → 36.3% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0RUE screens overvalued: fair value 57% below the price. Compare with Alphabet Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 121 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside −83.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 9.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) −10.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 99.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 25.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.32× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.78× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.84× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 12.8× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alphabet Inc GOOG $341.08 $334.16 −2%
Meta Platforms, Inc META $725.18 $797.70 +10%
Tencent Holdings 0700 HK$431.00 HK$707.84 +64%
Spotify Technology S.A SPOT $487.38 $536.12 +10%
Baidu, Inc BIDU $86.71 $67.13 −23%
Reddit, Inc RDDT $145.36 $131.44 −10%
NAVER Corporation 035420 194,700 KRW 314,922 KRW +62%
Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 HK$30.02 HK$101.50 +238%
Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 HK$32.38 HK$71.46 +121%
REA Group REA A$157.50 A$173.25 +10%

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Catena Media plc · Fair Value
kr 1.34 −57%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Catena Media plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0RUE

Frequently asked questions

Is Catena Media plc (0RUE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 1.34 versus a price of kr 3.10, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0RUE?
Our model-based fair value for Catena Media plc is kr 1.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 3.10.
What is the quality score of 0RUE?
Catena Media plc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 1.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 1.00, optimistic scenario kr 1.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Catena Media plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 1.34, about −57% upside versus a price of kr 3.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 1.00, optimistic scenario kr 1.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
Catena Media plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 49.1M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Catena Media plc it is kr 1.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 3.10. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Catena Media plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0RUE trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 3.10, fair value kr 1.34, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0RUE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 3.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 1.34). For Catena Media plc the two are kr 1.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Catena Media plc worth?
The market values Catena Media plc at about 1.8B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 3.10; our models calculate a fair value of kr 1.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0RUE?
Our models span a range for Catena Media plc: cautious scenario kr 1.00, base kr 1.34, optimistic kr 1.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 3.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Catena Media plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.5%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0RUE from its 52-week high?
Catena Media plc trades at kr 3.10, about 29% below its 52-week high of kr 4.37 and 96% above the low of kr 1.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 1.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Catena Media plc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Catena Media plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 3.10, calculated fair value kr 1.34 (−57%), Quality Score 63/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0RUE calculated?
We run Catena Media plc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 1.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Catena Media plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 3.10. Our model-based fair value is kr 1.34, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Catena Media plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 1.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Catena Media plc

How large is the market capitalisation of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
The market capitalisation of Catena Media plc is 1.8B SEK (≈ $179M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Catena Media plc is 36.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
Earnings per share at Catena Media plc are kr −0.0670. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
The net margin of Catena Media plc is 11.8% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Catena Media plc is −4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Catena Media plc is 7.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
The operating margin of Catena Media plc is 99.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
Revenue at Catena Media plc is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Catena Media plc (0RUE)?
Earnings per share at Catena Media plc are growing +148% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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