Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited (1114) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$9.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$6.71 to HK$6.63 (−1.2%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +10.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 190% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$4.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3101 – HK$4.39 · fair‑value band HK$4.97 – HK$8.28 · the HK$2.29 price screens below the HK$6.63 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited (1114) currently trades at HK$2.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.63, implying the stock looks roughly 190.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$1.2B. Revenue grew 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$4.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$4.97 (bear case) to HK$8.28 (bull case); at HK$2.29, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 190%, 1114 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$6.69) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.79). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells BMW vehicles, non-BMW vehicles, and automotive components in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It provides minibuses and multi-purpose vehicles.
Full company description
Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells BMW vehicles, non-BMW vehicles, and automotive components in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It provides minibuses and multi-purpose vehicles. The company's automotive components include mouldings, seats, axles, safety and airbag systems, and interior decoration products, as well as engines for minibuses, sedans, sport utility vehicles, light duty trucks, etc. In addition, it provides BMW sport activity vehicles. Further, the company offers auto-financing services. It has strategic partnerships and alliances with BMW, Group Renault, Toyota, JINBEI, TCL, CATL, EVE ENERGY, and INOVANCE. Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$1.2B in FY2025 versus HK$2.1B in FY2021, a compound −13.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.0B in FY2025, compounding −36.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $188.22 | $247.83 | +32% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,610 MXN | +37% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,783 CZK | +262% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,875 | ₹8,236 | -41% |
| Kia Corporation 000270 | 135,600 KRW | 341,751 KRW | +152% |
| Weichai Power Co 2338 | HK$36.40 | HK$28.46 | -22% |
| Geely Automobile Holdings 80175 | HK$15.50 | HK$19.14 | +23% |
| Bajaj Auto Limited BAJAJAUTO | ₹11,700 | ₹4,574 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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