Kelfred Holdings (1134) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$173M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −31.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band (HK$0.0800 to HK$0.0900), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1700 – HK$2.66 · fair‑value band HK$0.0800 – HK$0.0900 · the HK$0.2310 price screens above the HK$0.0900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Kelfred Holdings (1134) currently trades at HK$0.2310, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0900, implying the stock looks roughly 61.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kelfred Holdings generated revenue of HK$500M at a net margin of -3.0%. Revenue grew 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$39.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0800 (bear case) to HK$0.0900 (bull case); at HK$0.2310, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -61%, 1134 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.6400) versus Multiples (HK$0.1000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kelfred Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of eyewear products in the People's Republic of China, Italy, the United Kingdom, India, Spain, the Philippines, Hong Kong, France, Japan, Australia, the United States, and internationally.
Full company description
Kelfred Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of eyewear products in the People's Republic of China, Italy, the United Kingdom, India, Spain, the Philippines, Hong Kong, France, Japan, Australia, the United States, and internationally. The company produces and sells a range of spectacle frames and sunglasses primarily through original design manufacturing and original equipment manufacturing. It also offers product design and development, raw materials procurement, production, quality control, packaging, and delivery services. In addition, the company provides original brand manufacturing products under the Miga brand name. Further, it is involved in property holding activities. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Sha Tin, Hong Kong. Kelfred Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Conquer Holding Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kelfred Holdings reported revenue of HK$500M in FY2025 versus HK$435M in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$15.1M in FY2025.
1134 screens 61% overvalued. Compare with Intuitive Surgical, Inc →
Peer Group
Medical Instruments & Supplies · 202 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intuitive Surgical, Inc ISRG | $401.27 | $150.04 | -63% |
| EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme 1EL | €164.40 | €68.55 | -58% |
| Medline Inc MDLN | $35.50 | $30.15 | -15% |
| Becton, Dickinson and Company BDX | $181.41 | $100.46 | -45% |
| Alcon Inc ALC | $73.58 | $39.78 | -46% |
| ResMed Inc RMD | $226.00 | $187.89 | -17% |
| West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc WST | $352.29 | $141.58 | -60% |
| Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A DIM | €180.30 | €48.88 | -73% |
| Coloplast A/S COLOB | kr 429.70 | kr 382.22 | -11% |
| Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals., a biopharmaceutical company, 603087 | ¥77.48 | ¥27.22 | -65% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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