Alcon Inc (ALC) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $34.3B
Alcon Inc
ALC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +4.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($51.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($27.93 to $51.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $55.68 – $99.92 · fair‑value band $27.93 – $51.63 · the $69.54 price screens above the $39.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Alcon Inc (ALC) currently trades at $69.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.78, implying the stock looks roughly 42.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alcon Inc generated revenue of $10.6B at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 9.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at $3.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $27.93 (bear case) to $51.63 (bull case); at $69.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -43%, ALC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($41.64) versus Dividend Discount ($4.94). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Surgical and Vision Care.
Full company description
Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Surgical and Vision Care. It offers equipment, instrumentation and diagnostics, intraocular lenses (IOLs), and other implantables; and consumables, including viscoelastics, surgical solutions, incisional instruments, surgical custom packs, and other products for surgical procedures. The company's cataract products include Unity CS, LenSx laser system, Verion reference unit and Verion digital marker, ARGOS biometer, SMARTCATARACT health platform, NGENUITY 3D visualization system, LuxOR surgical ophthalmic microscope, and ORA system for intra-operative measurements; ADI cloud-based platform; and implantable products, including monofocal, Toric, and Presbyopia-Correcting IOLs, as well as delivery systems, such as AutonoMe and UltraSert. In addition, it provides Custom Pak surgical procedure packs vitreoretinal products comprising constellation vision systems, procedure packs, lasers and hand-held microsurgical instruments, Grieshaber, MIVS instruments; scissors, forceps and micro-instruments, medical grade vitreous tamponades, and Hypervit probes; and refractive surgery products, including WaveLight and Contoura Vision used for LASIK refractive procedure. Further, the company offers daily disposable, reusable, and color-enhancing contact lenses; ocular health products, such as dry eye, ocular allergies, glaucoma, and contact lens care, as well as ocular vitamins and redness relievers. The company was formerly known as Alcon Universal S.A. and changed its name to Alcon Inc. in December 2001. Alcon Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alcon Inc reported revenue of $10.4B in FY2025 versus $8.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $980M in FY2025, compounding +27.1%/yr from FY2021.
ALC screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Intuitive Surgical, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alcon (ALC) Q2 Earnings on the Horizon: Analysts' Insights on Key Performance Measures
- Do Options Traders Know Something About Alcon Stock We Don't?
Peer Group
Medical Instruments & Supplies · 204 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intuitive Surgical, Inc ISRG | $402.33 | $150.04 | -63% |
| EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme 1EL | €175.00 | €70.52 | -60% |
| Medline Inc MDLN | $41.11 | $30.15 | -27% |
| Becton, Dickinson and Company BDX | $150.65 | $103.53 | -31% |
| ResMed Inc RMD | $203.87 | $187.89 | -8% |
| West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc WST | $353.71 | $143.97 | -59% |
| Straumann Holding STMN | CHF 106.00 | CHF 47.31 | -55% |
| Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A DIM | €188.50 | €51.16 | -73% |
| Coloplast A/S COLOB | kr 414.00 | kr 382.22 | -8% |
| Solventum Corporation SOLV | $81.31 | $117.08 | +44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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