Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd HK$0.40, price HK$0.21, upside +93.2%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1357 – HK$1.26 · fair‑value band HK$0.3000 – HK$0.5000 · the HK$0.2070 price screens below the HK$0.4000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Xinchen China Power Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of automotive engines primarily in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Gasoline Engines, Diesel Engines, and Engine Components.
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Xinchen China Power Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of automotive engines primarily in the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: Gasoline Engines, Diesel Engines, and Engine Components. The company also manufactures engine parts and components of passenger vehicles, as well as engages in leasing of factory premises. Its products are used in a range of passenger and light duty commercial vehicles, including sedans, sport utility vehicles, multi-purpose vehicles, small and minibuses, and small and light-duty trucks. Xinchen China Power Holdings Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148) currently trades at HK$0.2070, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.4000, implying the stock looks roughly 48.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$1.08 per share, and 8 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$0.2070 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1900, and 2 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.3000 (bear) to HK$0.5000 (bull), the price of HK$0.2070 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd reported revenue of 4.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +34.0%/yr. Reported net income was 20.2M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$291M (≈ $37.1M) · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.7% · Operating margin 0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 93%, 1148 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.3000Fair Value HK$0.4000Bull HK$0.5000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0075 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+28.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.1% vs −21.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−19% → 0%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 110 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1148
Frequently asked questions
Is Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.4000 versus a price of HK$0.2070, about +93% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1148?
Our model-based fair value for Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is HK$0.4000 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2070.
What is the quality score of 1148?
Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.4000 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.3000, optimistic scenario HK$0.5000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.4000, about +93% upside versus a price of HK$0.2070 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.3000, optimistic scenario HK$0.5000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd pay a dividend?
Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.96% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd it is HK$0.4000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2070. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1148 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2070, fair value HK$0.4000, a gap of about +93% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1148?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2070); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.4000). For Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd the two are HK$0.1930 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd worth?
The market values Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd at about HK$291M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2070; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.4000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1148?
Our models span a range for Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.3000, base HK$0.4000, optimistic HK$0.5000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2070). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.2%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1148 from its 52-week high?
Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd trades at HK$0.2070, about 43% below its 52-week high of HK$0.3600 and at the low of HK$0.2070 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.4000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2070, calculated fair value HK$0.4000 (+93%), Quality Score 52/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1148 calculated?
We run Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.4000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.2070. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.4000, about +93% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.3000). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
The market capitalisation of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is HK$291M (≈ $37.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is 0.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
Earnings per share at Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd are HK$0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
The dividend yield of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is 4.0% (payout 82.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
The net margin of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is −2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
The operating margin of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
Revenue at Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is growing −44.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +41.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148)?
Earnings per share at Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd are growing −77.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148) generate?
The free cash flow of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is −80.1M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd (1148) carry?
The net debt of Xinchen China Power Hldg Ltd is 760M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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