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Saudi National Bank (1180) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Saudi National Bank SAR 41.98, price SAR 40.00, upside +5.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · SA · ISIN SA13L050IE10

SN Broad data Sep 27, 2026

Saudi National Bank

1180 · SR

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value 41.98 SAR · Fairly valued (+5.0%)
!Quality 54/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +16.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 65.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!5.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
✓Wide moat 71/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

48.87 SAR 25.46 SAR Fair Value 41.98 SAR Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 25.46 SAR – 48.87 SAR · fair‑value band 32.50 SAR – 58.53 SAR · the 40.00 SAR price screens below the 41.98 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

The Saudi National Bank, through its subsidiaries, provides banking and investment management services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally.

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The Saudi National Bank, through its subsidiaries, provides banking and investment management services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company offers current, Al Wessam, gold, commercial enterprise, and corporate accounts; Shariah-compliant financing solutions, financial solutions to MSMEs, point-of-sale Merchant Financing, personal and lease finance, and residential finance; and corporate finance solutions, including Ijara, Musharaka financing, Project and Structured Finance, Syndications and Placements, and Tawarruq. It also provides deposit, prepaid, and credit cards; cash management services, such as dividend distribution, payroll, escrow account management, deposit, and debit services; guarantees, fleet leasing, investment products, and digital banking; treasury services, such as foreign currency exchange, money markets, and shariah compliant products; payments and transfers; and trade finance, including documentary collection, export and import letter of credit, letter of guarantees, documentary collection, letter of credit program for Saudi industrial development fund clients. In addition, it operates as a private equity fund; keeps and manages title deeds and collateralized real estate properties; trades in derivatives and repos/reverse repos activities; sells POS equipment and devices; manages liquidity, market, and credit risks; and provides recruitment services, safety deposit boxes, private banking services, wealth management, asset management, investment banking, and shares brokerage services, as well as correspondent banking products and services, including money market and foreign exchange. The company was formerly known as The National Commercial Bank and changed its name to The Saudi National Bank in April 2021. The Saudi National Bank was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

Saudi National Bank (1180) currently trades at 40.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 41.98 SAR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.7%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 47.95 SAR per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the 40.00 SAR price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 22.95 SAR, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 32.50 SAR (bear) to 58.53 SAR (bull), the price of 40.00 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Saudi National Bank reported revenue of 46.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 29.4B SAR in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 25.1B SAR in FY2025, compounding +18.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 237B SAR (≈ $63.2B) · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 5.19 · EPS (TTM) 4.19 SAR · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 54.4% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 5%, 1180 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 32.50 SAR Fair Value 41.98 SAR Bull 58.53 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.41 SAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 32.07 SAR 38.01 SAR 51.77 SAR 76
Gordon GGM 18.56 SAR 38.60 SAR 61.23 SAR 66
DDM Multi-Stage 18.56 SAR 32.55 SAR 40.51 SAR 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 18.56 SAR 38.60 SAR 61.23 SAR 66
DDM Multi-Stage 18.56 SAR 32.55 SAR 40.51 SAR 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 41.16 SAR 54.88 SAR 68.60 SAR 63
P/B Multiple 35.96 SAR 47.95 SAR 59.94 SAR 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 17.13 SAR 22.95 SAR 34.25 SAR 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 32.07 SAR 38.01 SAR 51.77 SAR 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 76
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.1% vs 6.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.59% → 59%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.9% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−10.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.2%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1056 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside +4.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12.6% · Above median
Return on assets 2.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 65.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 75.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.17× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 6.02× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 41.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.3× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)40 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)34 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)50 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 52

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.95 €77.62 −8%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.79 €4.02 −41%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.07 $6.86 −38%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €99.30 €105.99 +7%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹735.60 ₹406.44 −45%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €13.23 €8.46 −36%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,327 ₹615.71 −54%

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Saudi National Bank · Fair Value
41.98 SAR +5%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi National Bank Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1180

Frequently asked questions

Is Saudi National Bank (1180) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 41.98 SAR versus a price of 40.00 SAR, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1180?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi National Bank is 41.98 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 40.00 SAR.
What is the quality score of 1180?
Saudi National Bank has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi National Bank (1180)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 41.98 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 32.50 SAR, optimistic scenario 58.53 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi National Bank stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 41.98 SAR, about +5% upside versus a price of 40.00 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 32.50 SAR, optimistic scenario 58.53 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
Saudi National Bank reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 39.5B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Saudi National Bank pay a dividend?
Saudi National Bank currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saudi National Bank (1180)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi National Bank would have to grow free cash flow by +14.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1180 use?
Our models discount Saudi National Bank at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi National Bank that is +14.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi National Bank (1180) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi National Bank grew +16.0 % a year. The price currently implies +14.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi National Bank (1180) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi National Bank (+14.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.42 %: that much free cash flow Saudi National Bank produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi National Bank it is 41.98 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 40.00 SAR. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi National Bank stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1180 trades below its calculated fair value: price 40.00 SAR, fair value 41.98 SAR, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1180?
No. The price is what the market pays today (40.00 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (41.98 SAR). For Saudi National Bank the two are 1.98 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi National Bank worth?
The market values Saudi National Bank at about 237B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 40.00 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 41.98 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1180?
Our models span a range for Saudi National Bank: cautious scenario 32.50 SAR, base 41.98 SAR, optimistic 58.53 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 40.00 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1180?
Saudi National Bank trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 41.98 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 6.0, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi National Bank (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1180 from its 52-week high?
Saudi National Bank trades at 40.00 SAR, about 8% below its 52-week high of 43.40 SAR and 16% above the low of 34.42 SAR (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 41.98 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi National Bank?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi National Bank stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 40.00 SAR, calculated fair value 41.98 SAR (+5%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1180 calculated?
We run Saudi National Bank through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 41.98 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi National Bank currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was 40.00 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 41.98 SAR, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi National Bank right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (32.50 SAR to 58.53 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Saudi National Bank (1180) come from?
Earnings per share at Saudi National Bank grew +4.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.7 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Saudi National Bank

How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi National Bank is 237B SAR (≈ $63.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi National Bank is 5.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
Earnings per share at Saudi National Bank are 4.19 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
The dividend yield of Saudi National Bank is 5.8% (payout 54.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
The net margin of Saudi National Bank is 54.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi National Bank is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi National Bank is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi National Bank (1180)?
The operating margin of Saudi National Bank is 75.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi National Bank (1180)?
Revenue at Saudi National Bank is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi National Bank (1180)?
Earnings per share at Saudi National Bank are growing +8.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saudi National Bank (1180) carry?
The net debt of Saudi National Bank is 66.5B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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