Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Lian Hwa Foods Corp TWD 28.69, price TWD 79.60, upside -64.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 35.60 TWD – 178.00 TWD · fair‑value band 15.07 TWD – 50.07 TWD · the 79.60 TWD price screens above the 28.69 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Lian Hwa Foods Corporation engages in the manufacture, processing, trade, wholesale, and retail of food products in Taiwan and internationally. It operates through Snack Food and RTE (Ready-to-Eat) Foods segments.
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Lian Hwa Foods Corporation engages in the manufacture, processing, trade, wholesale, and retail of food products in Taiwan and internationally. It operates through Snack Food and RTE (Ready-to-Eat) Foods segments. The company's products portfolio include seaweed, squid, noodles, pasta, rice bran, beans, nuts, melon seeds, jams, beverages, sugar, candy, biscuits, peanut butter, and other products. It also provides processed products, frozen processed food, canned food, and the wholesale and retail of tobacco and alcohol, as well as various marine and land food. In addition, the company engages in the manufacturing and selling of munchies, and investment activities, as well as planting and manufacturing agricultural products and by-products. It offers its products under the KOLOKO, VIVA, CADINA, Moto-Moto-Yama, Chef Hoka, and Lucky Star brand names. Lian Hwa Foods Corporation was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231) currently trades at 79.60 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 28.69 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 177.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 71.13 TWD per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the 79.60 TWD price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 7.25 TWD, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 15.07 TWD (bear) to 50.07 TWD (bull), the price of 79.60 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lian Hwa Foods Corp reported revenue of 12.9B TWD in FY2025 versus 9.5B TWD in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B TWD in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 27.0B TWD (≈ $849M) · P/E ratio 20.9 · P/S ratio 1.85 · EPS (TTM) 3.81 TWD · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 18.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −64%, 1231 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 15.07 TWDFair Value 28.69 TWDBull 50.07 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.69 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 11%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +41.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 646 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−64% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.9× · Pricier than median
P/B3.73× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.07× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF3.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA19.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.57× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)36· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)74· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)38· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 28.69 TWD versus a price of 79.60 TWD, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1231?
Our model-based fair value for Lian Hwa Foods Corp is 28.69 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 79.60 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1231?
Lian Hwa Foods Corp has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 28.69 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 15.07 TWD, optimistic scenario 50.07 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lian Hwa Foods Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 28.69 TWD, about −64% upside versus a price of 79.60 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 15.07 TWD, optimistic scenario 50.07 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
Lian Hwa Foods Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.1B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Lian Hwa Foods Corp pay a dividend?
Lian Hwa Foods Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lian Hwa Foods Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +43.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1231 use?
Our models discount Lian Hwa Foods Corp at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lian Hwa Foods Corp that is +43.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lian Hwa Foods Corp grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +43.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lian Hwa Foods Corp (+43.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.04 %: that much free cash flow Lian Hwa Foods Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lian Hwa Foods Corp it is 28.69 TWD per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 79.60 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lian Hwa Foods Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 1231 trades above its calculated fair value: price 79.60 TWD, fair value 28.69 TWD, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1231?
No. The price is what the market pays today (79.60 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (28.69 TWD). For Lian Hwa Foods Corp the two are 50.91 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lian Hwa Foods Corp worth?
The market values Lian Hwa Foods Corp at about 27.0B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 79.60 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 28.69 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1231?
Our models span a range for Lian Hwa Foods Corp: cautious scenario 15.07 TWD, base 28.69 TWD, optimistic 50.07 TWD per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 79.60 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1231?
Lian Hwa Foods Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 28.69 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 3.7, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 19.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 1231?
The PEG ratio of Lian Hwa Foods Corp is 0.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lian Hwa Foods Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 18.4%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1231 from its 52-week high?
Lian Hwa Foods Corp trades at 79.60 TWD, about 39% below its 52-week high of 130.00 TWD and at the low of 79.30 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 28.69 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lian Hwa Foods Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lian Hwa Foods Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 79.60 TWD, calculated fair value 28.69 TWD (−64%), Quality Score 43/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1231 calculated?
We run Lian Hwa Foods Corp through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 28.69 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lian Hwa Foods Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 79.60 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 28.69 TWD, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lian Hwa Foods Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (50.07 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (15.07 TWD to 50.07 TWD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231) come from?
Earnings per share at Lian Hwa Foods Corp grew +13.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +4.9 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lian Hwa Foods Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
The market capitalisation of Lian Hwa Foods Corp is 27.0B TWD (≈ $849M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lian Hwa Foods Corp is 1.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
Earnings per share at Lian Hwa Foods Corp are 3.81 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
The dividend yield of Lian Hwa Foods Corp is 1.9% (payout 39.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
The net margin of Lian Hwa Foods Corp is 8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lian Hwa Foods Corp is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lian Hwa Foods Corp is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
The operating margin of Lian Hwa Foods Corp is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
Revenue at Lian Hwa Foods Corp is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231)?
Earnings per share at Lian Hwa Foods Corp are growing +140% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lian Hwa Foods Corp (1231) carry?
The net debt of Lian Hwa Foods Corp is 4.9B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 19.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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