Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $13.6B

A solid business, but screening 40% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range ($11.77 to $21.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.74 – $47.53 · fair‑value band $11.77 – $21.65 · the $25.09 price screens above the $15.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) currently trades at $25.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.02, implying the stock looks roughly 40.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hormel Foods Corporation generated revenue of $12.2B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at $2.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11.77 (bear case) to $21.65 (bull case); at $25.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -40%, HRL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($15.93) versus Earnings-Based ($6.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice, convenience store, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Foodservice, and International segments.

Full company description

Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice, convenience store, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Foodservice, and International segments. The company provides various perishable products, including resh meats, frozen items, refrigerated meal solutions, bacon, sausages, hams, guacamole, and other items that require refrigeration; and shelf-stable products, such as canned luncheon meats, nut butters, snack nuts, chili, shelf-stable microwaveable meals, hash, stews, tortillas, salsas, tortilla chips, and other items that do not require refrigeration. It sells its products under the HORMEL, ALWAYS TENDER, APPLEGATE, AUSTIN BLUES, BACON 1, BLACK LABEL, BREAD READY, BURKE, CAFÉ H, CERATTI, CHI-CHI'S, COLUMBUS, COMPLEATS, CORN NUTS, CURE 81, DAN'S PRIZE, DI LUSSO, DINTY MOORE, DON MIGUEL, DOÑA MARIA, EMBASA, FAST "N EASY, FIRE BRAISED, FONTANINI, HERDEZ, HORMEL GATHERINGS, HOUSE OF TSANG, JENNIE-O, JUSTIN'S, LA VICTORIA, LAYOUT, LLOYD'S, MARY KITCHEN, MR. PEANUT, NATURAL CHOICE, NUT-RITION, OLD SMOKEHOUSE, OVEN READY, PILLOW PACK, PLANTERS, ROSA GRANDE, SADLER'S SMOKEHOUSE, SKIPPY, SPAM, SQUARE TABLE, SPECIAL RECIPE, VALLEY FRESH, and WHOLLY brands through sales personnel, independent brokers, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Geo. A. Hormel & Company and changed its name to Hormel Foods Corporation in January 1995. Hormel Foods Corporation was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Austin, Minnesota.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hormel Foods Corporation reported revenue of $12.1B in FY2025 versus $11.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was $478M in FY2025, compounding −14.8%/yr from FY2021.

HRL screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Hormel Foods Corporation Announces Third Quarter Earnings Call Yahoo Finance · Aug 3, 2026
• Hormel Foods Completes Sale of CERATTI® Business in Brazil Yahoo Finance · Jul 31, 2026
• Is Hormel Foods (HRL) a Buy After New CEO? Yahoo Finance · Jul 30, 2026

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 650 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.