Excel Development Ltd (1372) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Excel Development Ltd HK$0.34, price HK$1.06, upside -67.8%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2430 – HK$6.09 · fair‑value band HK$0.2805 – HK$0.3910 · the HK$1.06 price screens above the HK$0.3400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China Carbon Neutral Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the civil engineering and construction business in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China.
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China Carbon Neutral Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the civil engineering and construction business in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. It operates through Global Carbon Neutral, Ecological Governance and Civil Engineering Business, Green Credit Digital Technology, and Battery Cascading Utilization Business segments. The Global Carbon Neutral segment engages in trading of carbon credit and carbon asset development; management and investment in carbon neutral related fields, and carbon consulting and planning services. This segment develops utilization and storage of natural carbons, and carbon capture related process. The Ecological Governance and Civil Engineering Business segment engages in civil engineering, ecological governance, building construction, and maintenance works. The Green Credit Digital Technology segment offers ESG analysis reports and assists in obtaining green financing. The Battery Cascading Utilization Business segment engages in the acquisition of waste materials from power batteries, while developing the cascade utilization of retired batteries from new energy public buses. It is also involved in the provision of ecological governance, and civil engineering business and maintenance works to government, public utilities companies, and private organizations. In addition, the company engages in the development, operation, management, and sale of carbon credit assets; provision of carbon neutral advisory services; and trading of waste batteries. The company has a strategic partnership with the People's Government of Hua County for the development of a green energy project. China Carbon Neutral Development Group Limited was formerly known as Bisu Technology Group International Limited and changed its name to China Carbon Neutral Development Group Limited in April 2021. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Wong Chuk Hang, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Excel Development Ltd (1372) currently trades at HK$1.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3400, 67.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$0.7600 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the HK$1.06 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.1300, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2805 (bear) to HK$0.3910 (bull), the price of HK$1.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Excel Development Ltd reported revenue of HK$624M in FY2025 versus HK$468M in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$44.5M in FY2025, compounding −36.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$882M (≈ $112M) · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600 · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 43,852% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.4% · Operating margin 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −68%, 1372 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.2805Fair Value HK$0.3400Bull HK$0.3910
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0450 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.2% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−42.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−42.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−42.1% vs −9.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−40% → −7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 802 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−67.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.03× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B19.00× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.42× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.4× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)72· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)48· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Excel Development Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1372
Frequently asked questions
Is Excel Development Ltd (1372) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3400 versus a price of HK$1.06, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1372?
Our model-based fair value for Excel Development Ltd is HK$0.3400 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.06.
What is the quality score of 1372?
Excel Development Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3400 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2805, optimistic scenario HK$0.3910. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Excel Development Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3400, about −68% upside versus a price of HK$1.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2805, optimistic scenario HK$0.3910. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
Excel Development Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$624M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Excel Development Ltd it is HK$0.3400 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.06. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Excel Development Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1372 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.06, fair value HK$0.3400, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1372?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3400). For Excel Development Ltd the two are HK$0.7150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Excel Development Ltd worth?
The market values Excel Development Ltd at about HK$882M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.06; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1372?
Our models span a range for Excel Development Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2805, base HK$0.3400, optimistic HK$0.3910 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1372?
Excel Development Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.3400 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 19.0, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
Balance-sheet figures for Excel Development Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): debt of 1.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1372 from its 52-week high?
Excel Development Ltd trades at HK$1.06, about 43% below its 52-week high of HK$1.86 and 17% above the low of HK$0.9000 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Excel Development Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Excel Development Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.06, calculated fair value HK$0.3400 (−68%), Quality Score 29/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1372 calculated?
We run Excel Development Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Excel Development Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.06. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3400, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Excel Development Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3910). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Excel Development Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
The market capitalisation of Excel Development Ltd is HK$882M (≈ $112M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Excel Development Ltd is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
Earnings per share at Excel Development Ltd are HK$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
The net margin of Excel Development Ltd is 7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Excel Development Ltd is 43,852% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Excel Development Ltd is −14.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
The operating margin of Excel Development Ltd is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
Revenue at Excel Development Ltd is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Excel Development Ltd (1372)?
Earnings per share at Excel Development Ltd are growing −98.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Excel Development Ltd (1372) generate?
The free cash flow of Excel Development Ltd is −HK$65.3M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Excel Development Ltd (1372) carry?
The net debt of Excel Development Ltd is HK$85.1M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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