Excel Development Ltd (1372) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$882M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +51.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.8075). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2430 – HK$7.38 · fair‑value band HK$0.4505 – HK$0.8075 · the HK$1.37 price screens above the HK$0.6375 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Excel Development Ltd (1372) currently trades at HK$1.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6375, implying the stock looks roughly 53.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Excel Development Ltd generated revenue of HK$624M at a net margin of 7.1%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. Net debt stands at HK$85.1M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 11.3 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4505 (bear case) to HK$0.8075 (bull case); at HK$1.37, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -53%, 1372 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$0.7600) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.0300). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Carbon Neutral Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the civil engineering and construction business in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China.
Full company description
China Carbon Neutral Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the civil engineering and construction business in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. It operates through Global Carbon Neutral, Ecological Governance and Civil Engineering Business, Green Credit Digital Technology, and Battery Cascading Utilization Business segments. The Global Carbon Neutral segment engages in trading of carbon credit and carbon asset development; management and investment in carbon neutral related fields, and carbon consulting and planning services. This segment develops utilization and storage of natural carbons, and carbon capture related process. The Ecological Governance and Civil Engineering Business segment engages in civil engineering, ecological governance, building construction, and maintenance works. The Green Credit Digital Technology segment offers ESG analysis reports and assists in obtaining green financing. The Battery Cascading Utilization Business segment engages in the acquisition of waste materials from power batteries, while developing the cascade utilization of retired batteries from new energy public buses. It is also involved in the provision of ecological governance, and civil engineering business and maintenance works to government, public utilities companies, and private organizations. In addition, the company engages in the development, operation, management, and sale of carbon credit assets; provision of carbon neutral advisory services; and trading of waste batteries. The company has a strategic partnership with the People's Government of Hua County for the development of a green energy project. China Carbon Neutral Development Group Limited was formerly known as Bisu Technology Group International Limited and changed its name to China Carbon Neutral Development Group Limited in April 2021. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Wong Chuk Hang, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Excel Development Ltd reported revenue of HK$624M in FY2025 versus HK$468M in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$44.5M in FY2025, compounding −36.2%/yr from FY2021.
1372 screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,020 | ₹1,994 | -50% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 357,500 KRW | 261,411 KRW | -27% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 113,700 KRW | 61,453 KRW | -46% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 49,300 KRW | 43,624 KRW | -12% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹230.00 | ₹48.92 | -79% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 18,400 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -65% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 99,800 KRW | 19,346 KRW | -81% |
| GS Engineering & Construction Corporation 006360 | 35,200 KRW | 23,135 KRW | -34% |
| DL E&C Co 375500 | 73,500 KRW | 148,433 KRW | +102% |
| KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering Co 051600 | 46,350 KRW | 43,924 KRW | -5% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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