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JY Gas Ltd (1407) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$251M

JG JY Gas Ltd 1407 · HK
PriceHK$0.5800
Fair ValueHK$1.08
Upside+86.2%
Quality50/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 8.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.79% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Moderate moat 47/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.8800 – HK$1.33 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +7.4% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 86% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

HK$1.11 HK$0.3022 Fair Value HK$1.08 Nov 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

45‑month range HK$0.3022 – HK$1.11 · fair‑value band HK$0.8800 – HK$1.33 · the HK$0.5800 price screens below the HK$1.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

JY Gas Ltd (1407) currently trades at HK$0.5800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.08, implying the stock looks roughly 86.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, JY Gas Ltd generated revenue of HK$335M at a net margin of 8.5%. Revenue declined 12.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$151M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.8800 (bear case) to HK$1.33 (bull case); at HK$0.5800, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 86%, 1407 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.5600 HK$0.5800 HK$0.6000 80
Residual Income HK$0.5400 HK$0.5700 HK$0.5900 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.9200 HK$1.21 HK$1.57 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.5600 HK$0.5700 HK$0.6100 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.00 HK$1.14 HK$1.36 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.9200 HK$1.21 HK$1.64 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9200 HK$1.22 HK$1.61 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.9000 HK$1.18 HK$1.51 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.7300 HK$0.9000 HK$1.10 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.7400 HK$0.9100 HK$1.08 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.7300 HK$0.8900 HK$1.04 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.4300 HK$0.5200 HK$0.5900 54
EPV HK$0.9600 HK$1.01 HK$1.06 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.8500 HK$1.13 HK$1.41 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.8000 HK$1.07 HK$1.34 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.8000 HK$1.07 HK$1.34 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.51 HK$1.85 HK$2.19 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.38 HK$1.68 HK$1.97 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.31 HK$1.67 HK$2.02 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.7100 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.5600 HK$0.5800 HK$0.6000 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.9200 HK$1.21 HK$1.57 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.5400 HK$0.5700 HK$0.5900 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.9600 HK$1.03 HK$1.09 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.6000 HK$0.8600 HK$1.12 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$1.13) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.4800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$335M
Revenue growth (YoY) -12.7%
Net margin 8.5%
Return on equity 9.0%
Free cash flow HK$4.4M FY2025
P/E ratio 8.1 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 16.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300
Dividend yield 1.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +3.5%
Net cash HK$151M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Jy Gas Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale of natural gas in the People's Republic of China. The company offers piped natural gas, compressed natural gas, and liquefied natural gas.

Full company description

Jy Gas Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale of natural gas in the People's Republic of China. The company offers piped natural gas, compressed natural gas, and liquefied natural gas. It also provides construction and installation services to property developers, and residential and non-residential piped natural gas end-users; sells gas-burning appliances, such as gas stoves, wall-hung gas boilers, and water heaters to property owners and occupiers; and engages in international trading activities. It serves retail customers consisting of residential, commercial and industrial end-users, as well as refueling stations. Jy Gas Limited was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Gaomi, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

JY Gas Ltd reported revenue of HK$326M in FY2025 versus HK$441M in FY2021, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$27.7M in FY2025, compounding −20.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$326M
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.9%
Revenue −7.3%/yr
FY21 HK$441M
FY22 HK$476M
FY23 HK$403M
FY24 HK$370M
FY25 HK$326M
Net income −20.0%/yr
FY21 HK$67.5M
FY22 HK$50.8M
FY23 HK$24.5M
FY24 HK$30.0M
FY25 HK$27.7M

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JY Gas Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.08 +86%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "JY Gas Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1407

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +86% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Above median
Revenue growth -13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.8% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.80× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.75× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 0.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 23
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 36 · sector 34
HEALTH 99 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 36 · sector 74

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.94 €31.58 +9%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $169.59 $85.67 -49%
NiSource Inc NI $42.01 $28.59 -32%
Uniper SE UN0 €47.45 €48.32 +2%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$6.76 HK$4.79 -29%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹177.95 ₹130.21 -27%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹654.05 ₹101.36 -85%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥17.32 ¥25.71 +48%
ENN Energy Holdings 2688 HK$47.16 HK$107.98 +129%
China Suntien Green Energy Corporation 600956 ¥7.26 ¥7.37 +2%

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Frequently asked questions

Is JY Gas Ltd (1407) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.08 versus a price of HK$0.5800, about +86% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1407?
Our model-based fair value for JY Gas Ltd is HK$1.08 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.5800.
What is the quality score of 1407?
JY Gas Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of JY Gas Ltd (1407)?
JY Gas Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$335M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1407?
The net profit margin of JY Gas Ltd is about 8.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does JY Gas Ltd pay a dividend?
JY Gas Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.79% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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