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Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · ES · Market cap €26.7B

NE Naturgy Energy Group NTGY · MC
Price€28.78
Fair Value€35.80
Upside+24.4%
Quality61/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Moderate moat 61/100
Evidence: Medium Range €21.46 – €49.13 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Share price +4.8% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 24% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (€21.46 to €49.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€29.94 €17.07 Fair Value €35.80 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €17.07 – €29.94 · fair‑value band €21.46 – €49.13 · the €28.78 price screens below the €35.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY) currently trades at €28.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €35.80, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% undervalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Naturgy Energy Group generated revenue of €19.1B at a net margin of 10.7%. Revenue declined 6.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.0%. Net debt stands at €13.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €21.46 (bear case) to €49.13 (bull case); at €28.78, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -23% fair-value upside, at 24%, NTGY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €18.24 €28.17 €42.64 80
Residual Income €13.31 €16.01 €38.75 76
Rev-Margin DCF €21.25 €37.42 €55.15 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €17.31 €27.70 €43.64 38
Owner Earnings €7.26 €13.71 €23.61 31
5Y Revenue Exit €21.25 €37.08 €57.49 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €30.46 €53.07 €79.44 41
5Y P/E Exit €18.54 €32.39 €46.75 38
10Y Revenue Exit €18.53 €32.26 €48.67 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €25.22 €42.93 €64.01 37
10Y P/E Exit €17.83 €29.13 €41.16 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €14.85 €29.30 €36.72 54
EPV €19.08 €23.79 €27.91 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €16.61 €23.53 €30.63 70
DDM Multi-Stage €16.61 €23.29 €31.06 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €32.76 €43.67 €54.59 63
P/S Multiple €27.84 €37.12 €46.40 58
P/B Multiple €22.69 €30.25 €37.82 55
EV/EBIT €43.02 €60.42 €77.83 53
EV/EBITDA €45.37 €63.55 €81.74 54
EV/Revenue €26.00 €41.09 €56.17 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €5.04 €6.76 €10.08 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €18.24 €28.17 €42.64 80
Rev-Margin DCF €21.25 €37.42 €55.15 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €13.31 €16.01 €38.75 76
ROIC Compounder €19.78 €25.88 €32.31 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €23.71 €33.88 €44.04 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (€41.09) versus Asset-Based (€6.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €19.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) -6.9%
Net margin 10.7%
Return on equity 22.0%
Free cash flow €2.4B FY2025
P/E ratio 12.9
More key figures
Operating margin 17.9%
EPS (TTM) €2.22
EPS growth (YoY) +13.9%
Net debt €13.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 76
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments.

Full company description

Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments. The company is involved in the regulated gas and electricity distribution; management of transport infrastructure; trade and shipping of liquefied natural gas; supply, procurement, and management of other gas infrastructure; and management of gas pipeline. It also manages conventional thermal generation facilities; facilities and generation projects using wind energy, mini hydro, solar and cogeneration, as well as hydroelectric power; photovoltaic generation projects; and renewable electricity generation projects. In addition, the company is involved in renewable gas projects, such as biomethane and green hydrogen; supply of gas, electricity and services to end customers. It operates in Spain, Australia, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Panama, the rest of Latin America, and the rest of Europe. The company was formerly known as Gas Natural SDG, S.A. and changed its name to Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. in June 2018. Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. was incorporated in 1843 and is based in Madrid, Spain.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Naturgy Energy Group reported revenue of €19.5B in FY2025 versus €22.1B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was €2.0B in FY2025, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€19.5B
Latest YoY
+1.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−17.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+5.7%
Revenue −3.2%/yr
FY21 €22.1B
FY22 €34.0B
FY23 €22.6B
FY24 €19.3B
FY25 €19.5B
Net income +13.6%/yr
FY21 €1.2B
FY22 €1.6B
FY23 €2.0B
FY24 €1.9B
FY25 €2.0B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Naturgy Energy Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTGY

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +24% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Above median
Revenue growth -7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.38× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 3.30× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.62× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 13.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 6.40× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 66 · sector 24
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 88 · sector 34
HEALTH 31 · sector 84
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 68

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $177.68 $85.67 -52%
NiSource Inc NI $47.07 $28.59 -39%
Uniper SE UN0 €42.80 €49.13 +15%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.03 HK$5.08 -28%
Italgas S.p.A IG €9.98 €8.11 -19%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹171.71 ₹147.74 -14%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥16.69 ¥25.71 +54%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹723.90 ₹101.36 -86%
UGI Corporation UGI $35.84 $27.13 -24%
Southwest Gas Holdings SWX $92.06 $70.67 -23%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €35.80 versus a price of €28.78, about +24% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NTGY?
Our model-based fair value for Naturgy Energy Group is €35.80 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €28.78.
What is the quality score of NTGY?
Naturgy Energy Group has a Quality Score of 61/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY)?
Naturgy Energy Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NTGY?
The net profit margin of Naturgy Energy Group is about 10.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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