Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Naturgy Energy Group SA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €17.13 – €29.98 · fair‑value band €18.13 – €40.28 · the €29.30 price screens below the €30.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments.
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Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the supply, liquefaction, regasification, transport, storage, distribution, and sale of gas. It operates through Distribution Networks and Energy Markets segments. The company is involved in the regulated gas and electricity distribution; management of transport infrastructure; trade and shipping of liquefied natural gas; supply, procurement, and management of other gas infrastructure; and management of gas pipeline. It also manages conventional thermal generation facilities; facilities and generation projects using wind energy, mini hydro, solar and cogeneration, as well as hydroelectric power; photovoltaic generation projects; and renewable electricity generation projects. In addition, the company is involved in renewable gas projects, such as biomethane and green hydrogen; supply of gas, electricity and services to end customers. It operates in Spain, Australia, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Panama, the rest of Latin America, and the rest of Europe. The company was formerly known as Gas Natural SDG, S.A. and changed its name to Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. in June 2018. Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. was incorporated in 1843 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
Stock analysis
Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY) currently trades at €29.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €30.66, implying the stock looks roughly 4.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €39.31 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the €29.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €6.76, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €18.13 (bear) to €40.28 (bull), the price of €29.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Naturgy Energy Group SA reported revenue of €19.5B in FY2025 versus €22.1B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was €2.0B in FY2025, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €28.4B · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) €2.22 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 22.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 5%, NTGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €18.13Fair Value €30.66Bull €40.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.61 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 18%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Naturgy Energy Group SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)18% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.38× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Naturgy Energy Group SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTGY
Frequently asked questions
Is Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €30.66 versus a price of €29.30, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NTGY?
Our model-based fair value for Naturgy Energy Group SA is €30.66 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €29.30.
What is the quality score of NTGY?
Naturgy Energy Group SA has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €30.66 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €18.13, optimistic scenario €40.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Naturgy Energy Group SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €30.66, about +5% upside versus a price of €29.30 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €18.13, optimistic scenario €40.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
Naturgy Energy Group SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Naturgy Energy Group SA pay a dividend?
Naturgy Energy Group SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Naturgy Energy Group SA would have to grow free cash flow by +4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NTGY use?
Our models discount Naturgy Energy Group SA at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Naturgy Energy Group SA that is +4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Naturgy Energy Group SA grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Naturgy Energy Group SA (+4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.28 %: that much free cash flow Naturgy Energy Group SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Naturgy Energy Group SA it is €30.66 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of €29.30. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Naturgy Energy Group SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, NTGY trades below its calculated fair value: price €29.30, fair value €30.66, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€29.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€30.66). For Naturgy Energy Group SA the two are €1.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Naturgy Energy Group SA worth?
The market values Naturgy Energy Group SA at about €28.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is €29.30; our models calculate a fair value of €30.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTGY?
Our models span a range for Naturgy Energy Group SA: cautious scenario €18.13, base €30.66, optimistic €40.28 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price €29.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTGY?
Naturgy Energy Group SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €30.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.4, P/B 3.3, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
What is the PEG ratio of NTGY?
The PEG ratio of Naturgy Energy Group SA is 6.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Naturgy Energy Group SA (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 22.0%, debt of 1.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTGY from its 52-week high?
Naturgy Energy Group SA trades at €29.30, about 2% below its 52-week high of €29.94 and 23% above the low of €23.86 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €30.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Naturgy Energy Group SA?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, The Hong Kong and China Gas Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Naturgy Energy Group SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price €29.30, calculated fair value €30.66 (+5%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTGY calculated?
We run Naturgy Energy Group SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €30.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Naturgy Energy Group SA currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €29.30. Our model-based fair value is €30.66, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Naturgy Energy Group SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€18.13 to €40.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY) come from?
Earnings per share at Naturgy Energy Group SA grew +4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.6 %, EBIT margin +7.3 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Naturgy Energy Group SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
The market capitalisation of Naturgy Energy Group SA is €28.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Naturgy Energy Group SA is 1.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
Earnings per share at Naturgy Energy Group SA are €2.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
The dividend yield of Naturgy Energy Group SA is 6.3% (payout 83.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
The net margin of Naturgy Energy Group SA is 10.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Naturgy Energy Group SA is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Naturgy Energy Group SA is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
The operating margin of Naturgy Energy Group SA is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
Revenue at Naturgy Energy Group SA is growing −6.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY)?
Earnings per share at Naturgy Energy Group SA are growing +13.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY) carry?
The net debt of Naturgy Energy Group SA is €13.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026