Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$559M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.45 to HK$1.70 (+17.0%) since Aug 5, 2026.
A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.47). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4436 – HK$1.65 · fair‑value band HK$1.47 – HK$2.20 · the HK$1.06 price screens below the HK$1.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412) currently trades at HK$1.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.70, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Q P Group Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.1B at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue declined 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$46.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.47 (bear case) to HK$2.20 (bull case); at HK$1.06, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 60%, 1412 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$1.90) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.10). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Q P Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and trading of paper products in the People's Republic of China, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates in two segments, the Web Sales and Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Sales.
Full company description
Q P Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and trading of paper products in the People's Republic of China, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates in two segments, the Web Sales and Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Sales. The company offers OEM solutions, such as product development, material sourcing, printing, assembly, quality assurance, and logistics; board and card games, puzzles, trading cards, greeting cards, educational items, and packaging; and digitalized production for small orders. It also provides laboratory testing services, website products, design services, and cybersecurity services and solutions. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Sha Tin, Hong Kong. Q P Group Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Good Elite Holdings Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Q P Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.1B in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$59.4M in FY2025, compounding −16.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 116 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.55 | R$3.80 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.18 | €14.21 | -39% |
| Suzano S.A SUZ | $8.02 | $23.77 | +196% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 109.40 | kr 49.40 | -55% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.94 | ¥17.29 | +24% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 323.20 | kr 217.72 | -33% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$8.21 | HK$8.74 | +6% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,000 CLP | 1,253 CLP | +25% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.11 | ¥21.06 | -0% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 77.60 | kr 48.60 | -37% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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