Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Q P Group Holdings Ltd HK$1.50, price HK$1.05, upside +43.6%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4436 – HK$1.65 · fair‑value band HK$1.22 – HK$1.57 · the HK$1.05 price screens below the HK$1.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Q P Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and trading of paper products in the People's Republic of China, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates in two segments, the Web Sales and Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Sales.
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Q P Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and trading of paper products in the People's Republic of China, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates in two segments, the Web Sales and Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Sales. The company offers OEM solutions, such as product development, material sourcing, printing, assembly, quality assurance, and logistics; board and card games, puzzles, trading cards, greeting cards, educational items, and packaging; and digitalized production for small orders. It also provides laboratory testing services, website products, design services, and cybersecurity services and solutions. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Sha Tin, Hong Kong. Q P Group Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Good Elite Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412) currently trades at HK$1.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.50, implying the stock looks roughly 30.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$1.90 per share, and 11 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$1.05 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.9900, and 3 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.22 (bear) to HK$1.57 (bull), the price of HK$1.05 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Q P Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.1B in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$59.4M in FY2025, compounding −16.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$556M (≈ $70.9M) · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 44%, 1412 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.22Fair Value HK$1.50Bull HK$1.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.0% vs −4.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 6%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 118 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+43.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.5% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)6.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Q P Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1412
Frequently asked questions
Is Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.50 versus a price of HK$1.05, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1412?
Our model-based fair value for Q P Group Holdings Ltd is HK$1.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.05.
What is the quality score of 1412?
Q P Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.22, optimistic scenario HK$1.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Q P Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.50, about +44% upside versus a price of HK$1.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.22, optimistic scenario HK$1.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
Q P Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Q P Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Q P Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Q P Group Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.50 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.05. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Q P Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1412 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.05, fair value HK$1.50, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1412?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.50). For Q P Group Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.4560 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Q P Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Q P Group Holdings Ltd at about HK$556M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.05; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1412?
Our models span a range for Q P Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.22, base HK$1.50, optimistic HK$1.57 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1412?
Q P Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 3.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
Balance-sheet figures for Q P Group Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1412 from its 52-week high?
Q P Group Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.05, about 36% below its 52-week high of HK$1.65 and 6% above the low of HK$0.9890 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Q P Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Q P Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.05, calculated fair value HK$1.50 (+44%), Quality Score 52/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1412 calculated?
We run Q P Group Holdings Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Q P Group Holdings Ltd currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.05. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.50, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Q P Group Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Q P Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
The market capitalisation of Q P Group Holdings Ltd is HK$556M (≈ $70.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Q P Group Holdings Ltd is 0.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
Earnings per share at Q P Group Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
The dividend yield of Q P Group Holdings Ltd is 6.7% (payout 100%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
The net margin of Q P Group Holdings Ltd is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Q P Group Holdings Ltd is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Q P Group Holdings Ltd is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
The operating margin of Q P Group Holdings Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
Revenue at Q P Group Holdings Ltd is growing −11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412)?
Earnings per share at Q P Group Holdings Ltd are growing −72.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412) generate?
The free cash flow of Q P Group Holdings Ltd is −HK$66.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Q P Group Holdings Ltd (1412) hold?
Q P Group Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$46.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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