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Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd (1556) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$372M

CK Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd 1556 · HK
PriceHK$0.2650
Fair ValueHK$0.1530
Upside-42.3%
Quality64/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 5.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
8.16% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.1152 – HK$0.1917 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.1529 to HK$0.1530 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −5.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 42% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1917). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.3719 HK$0.1031 Fair Value HK$0.1530 Mar 2018 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1031 – HK$0.3719 · fair‑value band HK$0.1152 – HK$0.1917 · the HK$0.2650 price screens above the HK$0.1530 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd (1556) currently trades at HK$0.2650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1530, implying the stock looks roughly 42.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.3B at a net margin of 5.9%. Revenue declined 22.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$722M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1152 (bear case) to HK$0.1917 (bull case); at HK$0.2650, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -42%, 1556 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.00 HK$2.63 HK$3.44 80
Residual Income HK$0.5500 HK$0.6700 HK$1.29 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.55 HK$2.07 HK$2.68 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.00 HK$2.74 HK$3.75 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.23 HK$1.60 HK$2.09 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.55 HK$2.05 HK$2.67 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.81 HK$2.54 HK$3.39 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.84 HK$2.60 HK$3.40 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.70 HK$2.18 HK$2.81 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.87 HK$2.49 HK$3.31 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.89 HK$2.53 HK$3.32 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.6000 HK$2.07 HK$2.78 54
Lynch FV HK$0.4800 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8800 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8800 46
EPV HK$1.04 HK$1.11 HK$1.17 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.3100 HK$0.5600 HK$0.7700 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3100 HK$0.5000 HK$0.6000 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.40 HK$1.86 HK$2.33 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.13 HK$1.51 HK$1.89 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.13 HK$1.51 HK$1.89 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.62 HK$2.00 HK$2.37 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.83 HK$2.27 HK$2.72 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.30 HK$1.64 HK$1.99 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.2900 HK$0.3900 HK$0.5900 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.00 HK$2.63 HK$3.44 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.55 HK$2.07 HK$2.68 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.5500 HK$0.6700 HK$1.29 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.06 HK$1.16 HK$1.26 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.20 HK$1.71 HK$2.22 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.49) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.3900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) -22.8%
Net margin 5.9%
Return on equity 15.8%
Free cash flow HK$235M FY2025
P/E ratio 2.8 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 6.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400
Dividend yield 8.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -1.2%
Net cash HK$722M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in foundation construction, and drilling and site investigation works for public and private sectors in Hong Kong. It operates in two segments, Foundation Construction and Ancillary Services; and Drilling and Site Investigation.

Full company description

Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in foundation construction, and drilling and site investigation works for public and private sectors in Hong Kong. It operates in two segments, Foundation Construction and Ancillary Services; and Drilling and Site Investigation. The company provides bored pile, percussive steel H-pile, and sheet pile; socketed H-pile, minipile, pipe pile, grout curtain, drilling and excavation, horizontal directional coring, pre-drilling and proof-drilling; rock and soil sampling, and field testing; and excavation and lateral support works, basement and substructure works, pile cap, road and drainage, building works, and slope and retaining features construction and maintenance works services. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Chinney Alliance Group Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.3B in FY2025 versus HK$2.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$133M in FY2025, compounding +18.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.3B
Latest YoY
−8.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Revenue +2.7%/yr
FY21 HK$2.0B
FY22 HK$1.8B
FY23 HK$2.1B
FY24 HK$2.5B
FY25 HK$2.3B
Net income +18.9%/yr
FY21 HK$66.7M
FY22 HK$96.0M
FY23 HK$120M
FY24 HK$127M
FY25 HK$133M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −0.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.4 pp

of which total revenue +5.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.0 pp

EBIT margin −5.8 pp
Tax rate +0.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1556 screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →

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Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.1530 −42%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1556

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −43% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth -23% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.2% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 2.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.42× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 14
FUTURE 0 · sector 15
PAST 63 · sector 26
HEALTH 100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹4,020 ₹1,994 -50%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 357,500 KRW 261,411 KRW -27%
Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 113,700 KRW 61,453 KRW -46%
Samsung E&A Co 028050 49,300 KRW 43,624 KRW -12%
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL ₹230.00 ₹48.92 -79%
Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 18,400 KRW 6,507 KRW -65%
KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 99,800 KRW 19,346 KRW -81%
GS Engineering & Construction Corporation 006360 35,200 KRW 23,135 KRW -34%
DL E&C Co 375500 73,500 KRW 148,433 KRW +102%
KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering Co 051600 46,350 KRW 43,924 KRW -5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd (1556) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1530 versus a price of HK$0.2650, about −42% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1556?
Our model-based fair value for Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd is HK$0.1530 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.2650.
What is the quality score of 1556?
Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd (1556)?
Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1556?
The net profit margin of Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd is about 5.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Chinney Kin Wing Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.16% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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