COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd HK$0.22, price HK$1.13, upside -80.5%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.9600 – HK$4.04 · fair‑value band HK$0.1300 – HK$0.3000 · the HK$1.13 price screens above the HK$0.2200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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COFCO Joycome Foods Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and sales of hog, and livestock slaughtering businesses in Mainland China. The company operates through Hog Production, Feed, Fresh Pork, Processed Meat Products, and Meat Import segments.
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COFCO Joycome Foods Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and sales of hog, and livestock slaughtering businesses in Mainland China. The company operates through Hog Production, Feed, Fresh Pork, Processed Meat Products, and Meat Import segments. It is also involved in the production and sale of feed; slaughtering, wholesale, and retail sale of fresh and frozen meats; manufacture, wholesale, and retail sale of processed meat products and fresh pork under the Maverick and Joycome brands; and sale of imported meat products, including pork, beef, poultry, and mutton. The company was formerly known as COFCO Meat Holdings Limited and changed its name to COFCO Joycome Foods Limited in October 2020. COFCO Joycome Foods Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610) currently trades at HK$1.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2200, 80.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$1.48 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the HK$1.13 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.2300, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1300 (bear) to HK$0.3000 (bull), the price of HK$1.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 18.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 13.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was −746M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$5.2B (≈ $660M) · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin −4.0% · Return on equity −8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% · Operating margin −5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −81%, 1610 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1300Fair Value HK$0.2200Bull HK$0.3000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0525 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.10/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
32.3% (2020) → −0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 644 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−80.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−5.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.08× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.04× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA2.9× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)44· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)29· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2200 versus a price of HK$1.13, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1610?
Our model-based fair value for COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is HK$0.2200 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.13.
What is the quality score of 1610?
COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2200 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1300, optimistic scenario HK$0.3000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2200, about −81% upside versus a price of HK$1.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1300, optimistic scenario HK$0.3000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 18.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.2200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.13. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1610 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.13, fair value HK$0.2200, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1610?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2200). For COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.9100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd at about HK$5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.13; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1610?
Our models span a range for COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1300, base HK$0.2200, optimistic HK$0.3000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
Balance-sheet figures for COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −8.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1610 from its 52-week high?
COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.13, about 37% below its 52-week high of HK$1.80 and 18% above the low of HK$0.9600 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.13, calculated fair value HK$0.2200 (−81%), Quality Score 29/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1610 calculated?
We run COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.13. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2200, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1300 to HK$0.3000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
The market capitalisation of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is HK$5.2B (≈ $660M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
The price-to-sales ratio of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
Earnings per share at COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
The dividend yield of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is 1.5% (payout 23.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
The net margin of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is −4.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
The return on equity (ROE) of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is −8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
The operating margin of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is −5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
Revenue at COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is growing +8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610)?
Earnings per share at COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd are growing +0.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610) generate?
The free cash flow of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is −1.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610) carry?
The net debt of COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd is 9.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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