COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$4.7B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −0.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.1400 to HK$0.3900). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.9600 – HK$4.36 · fair‑value band HK$0.1400 – HK$0.3900 · the HK$1.09 price screens above the HK$0.2700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd (1610) currently trades at HK$1.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2700, implying the stock looks roughly 75.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$18.6B at a net margin of -4.0%. Revenue grew 8.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.1%. Net debt stands at HK$9.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1400 (bear case) to HK$0.3900 (bull case); at HK$1.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -75%, 1610 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$1.26) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.2300). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
COFCO Joycome Foods Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and sales of hog, and livestock slaughtering businesses in Mainland China. The company operates through Hog Production, Feed, Fresh Pork, Processed Meat Products, and Meat Import segments.
Full company description
COFCO Joycome Foods Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and sales of hog, and livestock slaughtering businesses in Mainland China. The company operates through Hog Production, Feed, Fresh Pork, Processed Meat Products, and Meat Import segments. It is also involved in the production and sale of feed; slaughtering, wholesale, and retail sale of fresh and frozen meats; manufacture, wholesale, and retail sale of processed meat products and fresh pork under the Maverick and Joycome brands; and sale of imported meat products, including pork, beef, poultry, and mutton. The company was formerly known as COFCO Meat Holdings Limited and changed its name to COFCO Joycome Foods Limited in October 2020. COFCO Joycome Foods Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
COFCO Meat Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$18.6B in FY2025 versus HK$13.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$746M in FY2025.
1610 screens 75% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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