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SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$162M

SG SH Group Holdings Ltd 1637 · HK
PriceHK$0.5650
Fair ValueHK$0.3200
Upside-43.4%
Quality66/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 1.5% net margin
generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Narrow moat 21/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.2800 – HK$0.3900 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +36.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 43% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.5700 HK$0.0657 Fair Value HK$0.3200 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0657 – HK$0.5700 · fair‑value band HK$0.2800 – HK$0.3900 · the HK$0.5650 price screens above the HK$0.3200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637) currently trades at HK$0.5650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3200, implying the stock looks roughly 43.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, SH Group Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$388M at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue declined 19.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$149M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2800 (bear case) to HK$0.3900 (bull case); at HK$0.5650, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 351% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -43%, 1637 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$0.3500 HK$0.3300 HK$0.2400 76
Growth DCF HK$2.07 HK$2.44 HK$2.99 72
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.1700 HK$0.2400 HK$0.3100 68
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.04 HK$2.44 HK$3.06 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.5500 HK$0.6000 HK$0.6600 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.16 HK$1.21 HK$1.28 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.20 HK$1.28 HK$1.38 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.26 HK$1.38 HK$1.53 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.56 HK$1.67 HK$1.76 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.58 HK$1.71 HK$1.82 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.62 HK$1.77 HK$1.91 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1000 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2200 54
EPV HK$0.3800 HK$0.3900 HK$0.3900 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.2400 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3900 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.1900 HK$0.2500 HK$0.3200 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.1900 HK$0.2500 HK$0.3200 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.4000 HK$0.4100 HK$0.4200 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.4800 HK$0.5100 HK$0.5500 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.3900 HK$0.4000 HK$0.4100 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.2800 HK$0.3700 HK$0.5500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.07 HK$2.44 HK$2.99 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.16 HK$1.25 HK$1.40 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.3500 HK$0.3300 HK$0.2400 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.3800 HK$0.3900 HK$0.3900 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.1700 HK$0.2400 HK$0.3100 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.38) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.1800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$388M
Revenue growth (YoY) -19.7%
Net margin 1.5%
Return on equity 2.6%
Free cash flow HK$88.5M FY2025
P/E ratio 20.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 4.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300
EPS growth (YoY) -29.9%
Net cash HK$149M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 93
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 90
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

SH Group (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, provides electrical and mechanical (E&M) engineering services for the public and private sectors in Hong Kong.

Full company description

SH Group (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, provides electrical and mechanical (E&M) engineering services for the public and private sectors in Hong Kong. The company engages in the design, supply, installation, and maintenance of mechanical ventilation and air-conditioning systems; and provides services related to low voltage electrical systems and other E&M systems, including fire services systems, and plumbing and drainage systems. SH Group (Holdings) Limited was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

SH Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$388M in FY2026 versus HK$753M in FY2022, a compound −15.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$6.0M in FY2026, compounding −15.5%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$388M
Latest YoY
−36.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−25.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−11.3%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.3%
Revenue −15.3%/yr
FY22 HK$753M
FY23 HK$954M
FY24 HK$876M
FY25 HK$608M
FY26 HK$388M
Net income −15.5%/yr
FY22 HK$11.7M
FY23 −HK$11.0M
FY24 −HK$15.2M
FY25 HK$5.4M
FY26 HK$6.0M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −10.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.3 pp

of which total revenue +8.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.6 pp

EBIT margin −24.8 pp
Tax rate +1.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +4.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1637 screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →

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SH Group Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.3200 −43%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SH Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1637

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −43% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Revenue growth -20% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.74× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.42× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 14
FUTURE 0 · sector 15
PAST 11 · sector 26
HEALTH 0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹4,020 ₹1,994 -50%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 357,500 KRW 261,411 KRW -27%
Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 113,700 KRW 61,453 KRW -46%
Samsung E&A Co 028050 49,300 KRW 43,624 KRW -12%
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL ₹230.00 ₹48.92 -79%
Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 18,400 KRW 6,507 KRW -65%
KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 99,800 KRW 19,346 KRW -81%
GS Engineering & Construction Corporation 006360 35,200 KRW 23,135 KRW -34%
DL E&C Co 375500 73,500 KRW 148,433 KRW +102%
KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering Co 051600 46,350 KRW 43,924 KRW -5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3200 versus a price of HK$0.5650, about −43% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1637?
Our model-based fair value for SH Group Holdings Ltd is HK$0.3200 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.5650.
What is the quality score of 1637?
SH Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
SH Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$388M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1637?
The net profit margin of SH Group Holdings Ltd is about 1.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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