SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of SH Group Holdings Ltd HK$0.39, price HK$0.67, upside -41.8%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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SH Group (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, provides electrical and mechanical (E&M) engineering services for the public and private sectors in Hong Kong.
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SH Group (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, provides electrical and mechanical (E&M) engineering services for the public and private sectors in Hong Kong. The company engages in the design, supply, installation, and maintenance of mechanical ventilation and air-conditioning systems; and provides services related to low voltage electrical systems and other E&M systems, including fire services systems, and plumbing and drainage systems. SH Group (Holdings) Limited was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637) currently trades at HK$0.6700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3900, 41.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$1.47 per share, and 10 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$0.6700 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1800, and 12 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
SH Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$388M in FY2026 versus HK$753M in FY2022, a compound −15.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$6.0M in FY2026, compounding −15.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$268M (≈ $34.2M) · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300 · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 277% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −42%, 1637 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.3900Fair Value HK$0.3900Bull HK$0.3900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0152 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−36.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.5% vs −6.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 798 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−41.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Return on assets0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−19.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.3× · Pricier than median
P/B1.22× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.69× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF3.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA61.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SH Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1637
Frequently asked questions
Is SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3900 versus a price of HK$0.6700, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1637?
Our model-based fair value for SH Group Holdings Ltd is HK$0.3900 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6700.
What is the quality score of 1637?
SH Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3900 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SH Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3900, about −42% upside versus a price of HK$0.6700 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
SH Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$388M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SH Group Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1637 use?
Our models discount SH Group Holdings Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SH Group Holdings Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SH Group Holdings Ltd grew -11.3 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SH Group Holdings Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.03 %: that much free cash flow SH Group Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SH Group Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.3900 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.6700. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SH Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1637 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.6700, fair value HK$0.3900, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1637?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.6700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3900). For SH Group Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.2800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SH Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values SH Group Holdings Ltd at about HK$268M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.6700; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3900 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of 1637?
SH Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.3900 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 61.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
Balance-sheet figures for SH Group Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1637 from its 52-week high?
SH Group Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.6700, about 3% below its 52-week high of HK$0.6900 and 277% above the low of HK$0.1775 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SH Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SH Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.6700, calculated fair value HK$0.3900 (−42%), Quality Score 66/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1637 calculated?
We run SH Group Holdings Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SH Group Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.6700. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3900, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SH Group Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637) come from?
Earnings per share at SH Group Holdings Ltd grew −10.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin −24.8 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SH Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
The market capitalisation of SH Group Holdings Ltd is HK$268M (≈ $34.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SH Group Holdings Ltd is 0.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
Earnings per share at SH Group Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
The net margin of SH Group Holdings Ltd is 1.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SH Group Holdings Ltd is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SH Group Holdings Ltd is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
The operating margin of SH Group Holdings Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
Revenue at SH Group Holdings Ltd is growing −19.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −25.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637)?
Earnings per share at SH Group Holdings Ltd are growing −29.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does SH Group Holdings Ltd (1637) hold?
SH Group Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$149M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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