Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Postal Savings Bank of China HK$9.18, price HK$5.38, upside +70.8%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.89 – HK$5.72 · fair‑value band HK$8.44 – HK$12.01 · the HK$5.38 price screens below the HK$9.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services for retail and corporate customers in the People's Republic of China.
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Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services for retail and corporate customers in the People's Republic of China. It offers demand, time, personal call, time/demand optional, call, negotiated, foreign currency exchange deposit; passbooks and certificate of deposits; credit, mortgage, government, farmer, and merchant express loan; business easy mix, agriculture aid plus, domestic remittance and exchange, and payment and collection agency; cross-border remittance, personal exchange settlement and sale, and foreign currency exchange services; personal housing, auto, consumer, and personal education loans; and bank cards, as well as online banking services. The company also provides pledge, syndicated, land reserve, town rebuild, commercial property mortgage, real estate development, fixed asset, project, and consignment loans. In addition, it offers check, promissory notes, bank and commercial draft, remittance, consignment collection, and collection with acceptance settlement services; accounts management, payments and collection, liquidity, investment and financing, information management, fund monitoring, and bank-enterprise direct link services; draft acceptance and discounting, draft manager, and electronic commercial draft services; foreign exchange deposit, foreign exchange settlement, sale, and conversion, settlement, and trade finance; custody services; and bill rediscount, interbank financing, investment, and market trading services. It operates through directly operated outlets and agency outlets. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in Beijing, China. Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Post Group Corporation Limited.
Stock analysis
Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) currently trades at HK$5.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.18, implying the stock looks roughly 41.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$10.80 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$5.38 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$5.58, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$8.44 (bear) to HK$12.01 (bull), the price of HK$5.38 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Postal Savings Bank of China reported revenue of 346B CNY in FY2025 versus 399B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was 85.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$644B (≈ $82.0B) · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.7317 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 24.6% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 71%, 1658 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$8.44Fair Value HK$9.18Bull HK$12.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.3884 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.1% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.0% vs 3.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.75% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.8% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (15 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Postal Savings Bank of China with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1052 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+46.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.2% · Below median
Return on assets0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)27.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)35.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Postal Savings Bank of China Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1658
Frequently asked questions
Is Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.18 versus a price of HK$5.38, about +71% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1658?
Our model-based fair value for Postal Savings Bank of China is HK$9.18 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.38.
What is the quality score of 1658?
Postal Savings Bank of China has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$9.18 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$8.44, optimistic scenario HK$12.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Postal Savings Bank of China stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$9.18, about +71% upside versus a price of HK$5.38 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$8.44, optimistic scenario HK$12.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
Postal Savings Bank of China reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 323B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Postal Savings Bank of China pay a dividend?
Postal Savings Bank of China currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Postal Savings Bank of China would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1658 use?
Our models discount Postal Savings Bank of China at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Postal Savings Bank of China that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Postal Savings Bank of China grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Postal Savings Bank of China (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.03 %: that much free cash flow Postal Savings Bank of China produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Postal Savings Bank of China it is HK$9.18 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$5.38. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Postal Savings Bank of China stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1658 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$5.38, fair value HK$9.18, a gap of about +71% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1658?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$9.18). For Postal Savings Bank of China the two are HK$3.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Postal Savings Bank of China worth?
The market values Postal Savings Bank of China at about HK$644B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.38; our models calculate a fair value of HK$9.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1658?
Our models span a range for Postal Savings Bank of China: cautious scenario HK$8.44, base HK$9.18, optimistic HK$12.01 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$5.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1658?
Postal Savings Bank of China trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$9.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 0.5, P/S 1.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 1658?
The PEG ratio of Postal Savings Bank of China is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
Balance-sheet figures for Postal Savings Bank of China (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1658 from its 52-week high?
Postal Savings Bank of China trades at HK$5.38, about 4% below its 52-week high of HK$5.58 and 18% above the low of HK$4.54 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$9.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Postal Savings Bank of China?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Postal Savings Bank of China stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$5.38, calculated fair value HK$9.18 (+71%), Quality Score 45/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1658 calculated?
We run Postal Savings Bank of China through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$9.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Postal Savings Bank of China currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$5.38. Our model-based fair value is HK$9.18, about +71% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Postal Savings Bank of China right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$8.44). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) come from?
Earnings per share at Postal Savings Bank of China grew +5.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.3 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Postal Savings Bank of China
How large is the market capitalisation of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
The market capitalisation of Postal Savings Bank of China is HK$644B (≈ $82.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Postal Savings Bank of China is 1.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
Earnings per share at Postal Savings Bank of China are HK$0.7317 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
The dividend yield of Postal Savings Bank of China is 4.1% (payout 29.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
The net margin of Postal Savings Bank of China is 24.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Postal Savings Bank of China is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Postal Savings Bank of China is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
The operating margin of Postal Savings Bank of China is 35.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
Revenue at Postal Savings Bank of China is growing −0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Postal Savings Bank of China (1658)?
Earnings per share at Postal Savings Bank of China are growing −16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) hold?
Postal Savings Bank of China holds more cash than debt, 390B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026