Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Wecon Holdings Ltd HK$0.25, price HK$2.45, upside -89.8%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1151 – HK$2.60 · fair‑value band HK$0.2400 – HK$0.3100 · the HK$2.45 price screens above the HK$0.2500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Wecon Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a construction contractor in Hong Kong. It operates through Construction contracts and Repair, Maintenance, Alteration and Addition (RMAA) segments.
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Wecon Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a construction contractor in Hong Kong. It operates through Construction contracts and Repair, Maintenance, Alteration and Addition (RMAA) segments. The company provides building construction services for residential, commercial, and industrial buildings and RMAA services, such as general upkeep, maintenance, improvement, refurbishment, alteration, and addition of existing facilities and components of buildings and their surroundings. It also offers the provision of building information modelling services. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Wecon Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Triple Arch Limited.
Stock analysis
Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793) currently trades at HK$2.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2500, 89.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$1.02 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$2.45 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.1100, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2400 (bear) to HK$0.3100 (bull), the price of HK$2.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Wecon Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.1B in FY2026 versus HK$1.2B in FY2022, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$9.5M in FY2026, compounding −9.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.9B (≈ $248M) · P/E ratio 245.0 · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 1,341% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −90%, 1793 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$0.1100 to HK$1.75). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear HK$0.2400Fair Value HK$0.2500Bull HK$0.3100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −43.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.1% vs −9.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 58% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 802 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−89.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.4% · Below median
Return on assets0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)245.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.04× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.83× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF16.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2500 versus a price of HK$2.45, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1793?
Our model-based fair value for Wecon Holdings Ltd is HK$0.2500 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.45.
What is the quality score of 1793?
Wecon Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2500 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2400, optimistic scenario HK$0.3100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wecon Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2500, about −90% upside versus a price of HK$2.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2400, optimistic scenario HK$0.3100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
Wecon Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Wecon Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Wecon Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wecon Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +7.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1793 use?
Our models discount Wecon Holdings Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wecon Holdings Ltd that is +7.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wecon Holdings Ltd grew -0.7 % a year. The price currently implies +7.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wecon Holdings Ltd (+7.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.16 %: that much free cash flow Wecon Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wecon Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.2500 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.45. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Wecon Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1793 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.45, fair value HK$0.2500, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1793?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2500). For Wecon Holdings Ltd the two are HK$2.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wecon Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Wecon Holdings Ltd at about HK$1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.45; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1793?
Our models span a range for Wecon Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2400, base HK$0.2500, optimistic HK$0.3100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1793?
Wecon Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 245.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.2500 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.0, P/S 1.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wecon Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1793 from its 52-week high?
Wecon Holdings Ltd trades at HK$2.45, about 6% below its 52-week high of HK$2.60 and 1,341% above the low of HK$0.1700 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wecon Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wecon Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.45, calculated fair value HK$0.2500 (−90%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1793 calculated?
We run Wecon Holdings Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Wecon Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$2.45. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2500, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wecon Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793) come from?
Earnings per share at Wecon Holdings Ltd grew −13.2 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin −32.4 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +18.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Wecon Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
The market capitalisation of Wecon Holdings Ltd is HK$1.9B (≈ $248M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wecon Holdings Ltd is 2.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
Earnings per share at Wecon Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 245.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
The dividend yield of Wecon Holdings Ltd is 0.5% (payout 120%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
The net margin of Wecon Holdings Ltd is 0.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Wecon Holdings Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wecon Holdings Ltd is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
The operating margin of Wecon Holdings Ltd is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
Revenue at Wecon Holdings Ltd is growing −13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793)?
Earnings per share at Wecon Holdings Ltd are growing +34.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Wecon Holdings Ltd (1793) hold?
Wecon Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$236M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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