FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of FWD Group Holdings Ltd HK$23.66, price HK$32.34, upside -26.9%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range HK$27.62 – HK$49.78 · fair‑value band HK$21.34 – HK$23.66 · the HK$32.34 price screens above the HK$23.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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FWD Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance products and services. The company operates through Hong Kong & Macau, Thailand & Cambodia, Japan, Emerging Markets, and Corporate and Others segments.
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FWD Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance products and services. The company operates through Hong Kong & Macau, Thailand & Cambodia, Japan, Emerging Markets, and Corporate and Others segments. It also offers accident and health insurance, and savings plans to customers, as well as distributes related investment and other financial service products. In addition, the company underwrites general insurance, as well as provides investment related products and services. The company was formerly known as PCGI Intermediate Holdings Limited and changed its name to FWD Group Holdings Limited in August 2021. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) currently trades at HK$32.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$23.66, 26.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$46.19 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$32.34 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$13.23, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$21.34 (bear) to HK$23.66 (bull), the price of HK$32.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
FWD Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of $4.8B in FY2025 versus $88.2B in FY2021, a compound −51.7%/yr. Reported net income was $166M in FY2025, compounding −42.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$41.8B (≈ $5.3B) · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 0.76 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin 18.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −27%, 1828 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$21.34Fair Value HK$23.66Bull HK$23.66
Price HK$32.34 · Upside -26.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−42.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
’18
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−33.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−34.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 7%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 19.5%/yr over ~5Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 87 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−26.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)9.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)18.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.78× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.70× · Pricier than median
P/FCF33.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)29· sector 44
PAST (return on equity)17· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)22· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FWD Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1828
Frequently asked questions
Is FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$23.66 versus a price of HK$32.34, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1828?
Our model-based fair value for FWD Group Holdings Ltd is HK$23.66 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$32.34.
What is the quality score of 1828?
FWD Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$23.66 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$21.34, optimistic scenario HK$23.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FWD Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$23.66, about −27% upside versus a price of HK$32.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$21.34, optimistic scenario HK$23.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
FWD Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does FWD Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
FWD Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FWD Group Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -42.1 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1828 use?
Our models discount FWD Group Holdings Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FWD Group Holdings Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FWD Group Holdings Ltd grew -42.1 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FWD Group Holdings Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.97 %: that much free cash flow FWD Group Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FWD Group Holdings Ltd it is HK$23.66 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of HK$32.34. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FWD Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 1828 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$32.34, fair value HK$23.66, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1828?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$32.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$23.66). For FWD Group Holdings Ltd the two are HK$8.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FWD Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values FWD Group Holdings Ltd at about HK$41.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is HK$32.34; our models calculate a fair value of HK$23.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1828?
Our models span a range for FWD Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$21.34, base HK$23.66, optimistic HK$23.66 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price HK$32.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1828?
FWD Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$23.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 11.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
Balance-sheet figures for FWD Group Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1828 from its 52-week high?
FWD Group Holdings Ltd trades at HK$32.34, about 27% below its 52-week high of HK$44.16 and 17% above the low of HK$27.62 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$23.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FWD Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FWD Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price HK$32.34, calculated fair value HK$23.66 (−27%), Quality Score 41/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1828 calculated?
We run FWD Group Holdings Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$23.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. FWD Group Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was HK$32.34. Our model-based fair value is HK$23.66, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FWD Group Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$23.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (HK$21.34 to HK$23.66), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of FWD Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
The market capitalisation of FWD Group Holdings Ltd is HK$41.8B (≈ $5.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FWD Group Holdings Ltd is 0.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
The dividend yield of FWD Group Holdings Ltd is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
The net margin of FWD Group Holdings Ltd is 3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FWD Group Holdings Ltd is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FWD Group Holdings Ltd is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
The operating margin of FWD Group Holdings Ltd is 18.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
Revenue at FWD Group Holdings Ltd is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828)?
Earnings per share at FWD Group Holdings Ltd are growing +229% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) carry?
The net debt of FWD Group Holdings Ltd is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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