FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$36.2B
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from HK$1.44 to HK$7.22 (+401.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 317% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$9.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (14 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range HK$27.62 – HK$49.78 · fair‑value band HK$5.41 – HK$9.02 · the HK$30.08 price screens above the HK$7.22 fair value. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
FWD Group Holdings Ltd (1828) currently trades at HK$30.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.22, implying the stock looks roughly 76.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, FWD Group Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$3.0B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue declined 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. Net debt stands at HK$1.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$5.41 (bear case) to HK$9.02 (bull case); at HK$30.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -76%, 1828 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$6.28) versus Multiples (HK$1.69). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
FWD Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance products and services. The company operates through Hong Kong & Macau, Thailand & Cambodia, Japan, Emerging Markets, and Corporate and Others segments.
Full company description
FWD Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance products and services. The company operates through Hong Kong & Macau, Thailand & Cambodia, Japan, Emerging Markets, and Corporate and Others segments. It also offers accident and health insurance, and savings plans to customers, as well as distributes related investment and other financial service products. In addition, the company underwrites general insurance, as well as provides investment related products and services. The company was formerly known as PCGI Intermediate Holdings Limited and changed its name to FWD Group Holdings Limited in August 2021. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
FWD Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$4.8B in FY2025 versus HK$88.2B in FY2021, a compound −51.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$166M in FY2025, compounding −42.9%/yr from FY2021.
1828 screens 76% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →
Peer Group
Insurance - Life · 97 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥37.03 | ¥49.98 | +35% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥52.08 | ¥84.72 | +63% |
| AIA Group 1299 | HK$73.00 | HK$33.57 | -54% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation MFC | C$61.06 | C$38.80 | -36% |
| Aflac Incorporated AFL | $120.73 | $74.34 | -38% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$91.38 | C$39.53 | -57% |
| MetLife, Inc MET | $94.34 | $68.27 | -28% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹412.15 | ₹392.93 | -5% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.20 | ¥57.51 | +90% |
| Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 | 301,000 KRW | 191,293 KRW | -36% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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