VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of VIVA Biotech Holdings HK$2.10, price HK$1.53, upside +37.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4150 – HK$11.12 · fair‑value band HK$1.52 – HK$2.63 · the HK$1.53 price screens below the HK$2.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Viva Biotech Holdings, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of structure-based drug discovery services to biotechnology and pharmaceutical customers worldwide.
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Viva Biotech Holdings, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of structure-based drug discovery services to biotechnology and pharmaceutical customers worldwide. The company provides discovery biology services, including protein expression, structural biology, hit discovery, bioassay, biomolecular interaction, and pharmacology and DMPK; chemistry services, such as medicinal and synthetic chemistry, purification preparation, and computer-aided drug design services, as well as offers chemical technology platforms; and antibody/biologics research and development services comprising recombinant protein expression platform, antibody discovery and affinity maturation, assay platform, antibody production and identification platform, and antigen-antibody structural resolution platform solutions. It also offers PROTAC/molecular glue services, including protein preparation and complex structure determination, ADME & PK/PD studies of PROTAC molecules, and XDC platforms, such as XDC conjugation and quality study, and XDC chemistry research and development. In addition, the company offers contract development and manufacturing services comprising integrated services for small molecule active pharmaceutical ingredients, formulation development and production services, and pharmaceutical analysis services, as well as CMC filing, global filing registration support, and other services. Further, it provides research services. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873) currently trades at HK$1.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.10, implying the stock looks roughly 27.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$3.08 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$1.53 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$1.18, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.52 (bear) to HK$2.63 (bull), the price of HK$1.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
VIVA Biotech Holdings reported revenue of 1.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 220M CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.6B (≈ $456M) · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 1.51 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500 · Net margin 12.7% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% · Operating margin 8.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 37%, 1873 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.52Fair Value HK$2.10Bull HK$2.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0375 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.9% vs 19.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 638 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside+37.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
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Is VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.10 versus a price of HK$1.53, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1873?
Our model-based fair value for VIVA Biotech Holdings is HK$2.10 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.53.
What is the quality score of 1873?
VIVA Biotech Holdings has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.10 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.52, optimistic scenario HK$2.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VIVA Biotech Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.10, about +37% upside versus a price of HK$1.53 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.52, optimistic scenario HK$2.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
VIVA Biotech Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, VIVA Biotech Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +32.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1873 use?
Our models discount VIVA Biotech Holdings at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.36, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For VIVA Biotech Holdings that is +32.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at VIVA Biotech Holdings grew +19.9 % a year. The price currently implies +32.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into VIVA Biotech Holdings (+32.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.46 %: that much free cash flow VIVA Biotech Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VIVA Biotech Holdings it is HK$2.10 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.53. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VIVA Biotech Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1873 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.53, fair value HK$2.10, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1873?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.10). For VIVA Biotech Holdings the two are HK$0.5700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VIVA Biotech Holdings worth?
The market values VIVA Biotech Holdings at about HK$3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.53; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1873?
Our models span a range for VIVA Biotech Holdings: cautious scenario HK$1.52, base HK$2.10, optimistic HK$2.63 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1873?
VIVA Biotech Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
Balance-sheet figures for VIVA Biotech Holdings (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1873 from its 52-week high?
VIVA Biotech Holdings trades at HK$1.53, about 53% below its 52-week high of HK$3.27 and 42% above the low of HK$1.08 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VIVA Biotech Holdings?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VIVA Biotech Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.53, calculated fair value HK$2.10 (+37%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1873 calculated?
We run VIVA Biotech Holdings through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. VIVA Biotech Holdings currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.53. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.10, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VIVA Biotech Holdings right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of VIVA Biotech Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
The market capitalisation of VIVA Biotech Holdings is HK$3.6B (≈ $456M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VIVA Biotech Holdings is 1.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
Earnings per share at VIVA Biotech Holdings are HK$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
The net margin of VIVA Biotech Holdings is 12.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VIVA Biotech Holdings is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VIVA Biotech Holdings is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
The operating margin of VIVA Biotech Holdings is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
Revenue at VIVA Biotech Holdings is growing −10.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873)?
Earnings per share at VIVA Biotech Holdings are growing +117% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873) carry?
The net debt of VIVA Biotech Holdings is HK$222M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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