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Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Sunac China Holdings Limited HK$0.72, price HK$0.66, upside +10.3%, quality 19 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · HK · ISIN KYG8569A1067

SC Thin data Oct 1, 2026

Sunac China Holdings Limited

1918 · HK

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value HK$0.7225 · Fairly valued (+10.3%)
!Quality 19/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −27.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -29.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 5/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$26.75 HK$0.5300 Fair Value HK$0.7225 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5300 – HK$26.75 · fair‑value band HK$0.5355 – HK$1.08 · the HK$0.6550 price screens below the HK$0.7225 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

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Company profile

Sunac China Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in property development and investment business in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Property development; Cultural and Tourism City Construction and Operation; Property Management; and All other segments.

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Sunac China Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in property development and investment business in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Property development; Cultural and Tourism City Construction and Operation; Property Management; and All other segments. The company is involved in cultural tourism; provision of fitting and decoration services; film and culture investment; office building rentals; development and sales of residential and commercial properties; hotel and theme park operations; film and TV series production and distribution; film special effects services, and other business. Sunac China Holdings Limited was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918) currently trades at HK$0.6550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.7225, implying the stock looks roughly 9.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.5355 (bear) to HK$1.08 (bull), the price of HK$0.6550 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Sunac China Holdings Limited reported revenue of 45.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 198B CNY in FY2021, a compound −30.9%/yr. Reported net income was −12.3B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$13.0B (≈ $1.7B) · P/S ratio 0.31 · Net margin −27.3% · Return on equity −35.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% · Operating margin −13.0% · Revenue (TTM) 41.5B CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −18.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 10%, 1918 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.5355 Fair Value HK$0.7225 Bull HK$1.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA HK$0.2500 HK$0.7700 HK$1.29 62
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.00 HK$1.35 HK$2.01 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$0.2500 HK$0.7700 HK$1.29 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.00 HK$1.35 HK$2.01 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 19/100

Of which business quality 18 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 2
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−39.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
16.3% (2019) → −1.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +10.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 1.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −27.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 123.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −36.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.00× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.05× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.04× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 0.9× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.43× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)47 · sector 70
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)50 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 55

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$107.10 HK$155.14 +45%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$46.00 HK$71.49 +55%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.57 $1.52 −82%
DLF Limited DLF ₹683.00 ₹167.48 −75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.42 HK$22.33 +80%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,165 ₹274.14 −76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.56 ¥5.87 +6%
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.18 ¥6.04 −16%
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited 0004 HK$19.39 HK$8.31 −57%
CTP N.V CTPNV €12.90 €10.46 −19%

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Sunac China Holdings Limited · Fair Value
HK$0.7225 +9%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sunac China Holdings Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1918

Frequently asked questions

Is Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.7225 versus a price of HK$0.6550, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1918?
Our model-based fair value for Sunac China Holdings Limited is HK$0.7225 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6550.
What is the quality score of 1918?
Sunac China Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 19/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.7225 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5355, optimistic scenario HK$1.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sunac China Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.7225, about +10% upside versus a price of HK$0.6550 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5355, optimistic scenario HK$1.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
Sunac China Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 41.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sunac China Holdings Limited it is HK$0.7225 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$0.6550. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sunac China Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 1918 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.6550, fair value HK$0.7225, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1918?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.6550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.7225). For Sunac China Holdings Limited the two are HK$0.0675 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sunac China Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Sunac China Holdings Limited at about HK$13.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.6550; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.7225 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1918?
Our models span a range for Sunac China Holdings Limited: cautious scenario HK$0.5355, base HK$0.7225, optimistic HK$1.08 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$0.6550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 1918?
The PEG ratio of Sunac China Holdings Limited is 0.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sunac China Holdings Limited (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity −26.9%, debt of 1.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 19/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1918 from its 52-week high?
Sunac China Holdings Limited trades at HK$0.6550, about 61% below its 52-week high of HK$1.70 and 24% above the low of HK$0.5300 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.7225 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sunac China Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sunac China Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$0.6550, calculated fair value HK$0.7225 (+10%), Quality Score 19/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1918 calculated?
We run Sunac China Holdings Limited through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.7225, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Sunac China Holdings Limited currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.6550. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.7225, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sunac China Holdings Limited right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$0.5355 to HK$1.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Sunac China Holdings Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
The market capitalisation of Sunac China Holdings Limited is HK$13.0B (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sunac China Holdings Limited is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
The net margin of Sunac China Holdings Limited is −27.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sunac China Holdings Limited is −35.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sunac China Holdings Limited is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
The operating margin of Sunac China Holdings Limited is −13.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
Revenue at Sunac China Holdings Limited is growing −18.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918)?
Earnings per share at Sunac China Holdings Limited are growing +8.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918) generate?
The free cash flow of Sunac China Holdings Limited is −3.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918) carry?
The net debt of Sunac China Holdings Limited is 199B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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