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Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft €46.32, price €45.80, upside +1.1%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Oct 2, 2026
Bayer Aktiengesellschaft
1BAYN · MILow PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.
·Fair value €46.32 · Fairly valued (+1.1%)
!Quality 49/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −3.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.2% dividend yield · Cash covered
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €18.71 – €63.33 · fair‑value band €23.70 – €74.26 · the €45.80 price screens below the €46.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
Bayer operates as a life science company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Germany, Switzerland, North America, the United States, the Asia Pacific, China, Latin America, and Brazil. It operates through Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Health, and Crop Science segments.
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Bayer operates as a life science company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Germany, Switzerland, North America, the United States, the Asia Pacific, China, Latin America, and Brazil. It operates through Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Health, and Crop Science segments. The Pharmaceuticals segment provides prescription products primarily for cardiology and women's health care; specialty therapeutics in the areas of oncology, hematology, and ophthalmology; and diagnostic imaging equipment and contrast agents, as well as cell and gene therapy. The Consumer Health segment offers nonprescription over-the-counter medicines for self-medication and self-care; nutritional supplements; allergy, cough, and cold; dermatology; pain and cardiovascular risk prevention; and digestive health products. The Crop Science segment offers chemical and biological crop protection products, improved plant traits, seeds, digital solutions, and pest and weed management products, as well as customer services for agriculture. It also engages in the breeding, propagation, and production/processing of seeds, including seed dressing. The company distributes its products through wholesalers, pharmacies and pharmacy chains, supermarkets, online and other retailers, and hospitals, as well as directly to farmers. Bayer was founded in 1863 and is based in Leverkusen, Germany.
Stock analysis
Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN) currently trades at €45.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €46.32, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €81.69 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the €45.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €17.70, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €23.70 (bear) to €74.26 (bull), the price of €45.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Bayer Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €45.6B in FY2025 versus €44.1B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€3.6B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €51.9B · P/S ratio 1.15 · EPS (TTM) €−2.39 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin −7.9% · Return on equity −6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% · Operating margin 26.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 1%, 1BAYN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €23.70
Fair Value €46.32
Bull €74.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€27.22
€47.54
€85.18
74
Growth DCF
€29.63
€49.35
€83.09
73
EPV
€22.48
€30.31
€37.17
71
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€27.22
€47.54
€85.18
74
5Y Revenue Exit
€27.45
€52.26
€88.34
67
5Y EBITDA Exit
€45.57
€83.64
€134.07
70
10Y Revenue Exit
€25.45
€43.96
€63.88
63
10Y EBITDA Exit
€37.95
€63.36
€90.72
65
Earnings-Based
EPV
€22.48
€30.31
€37.17
71
Multiples
EV/EBIT
€55.13
€81.69
€108.25
65
EV/EBITDA
€70.84
€102.63
€134.42
67
EV/Revenue
€32.33
€56.70
€81.07
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€13.21
€17.70
€26.41
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€29.63
€49.35
€83.09
73
Rev-Margin DCF
€27.45
€53.47
€85.30
68
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
€22.48
€30.87
€40.40
69
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
49/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Profitability
16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
25
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
15.7% (2021) → 13.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.6% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)0.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.3%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Valuation of the Italy market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,157 | $749.08 | −35% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $264.74 | $168.85 | −36% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $261.59 | $259.62 | −1% |
| Roche Holding RO | CHF 375.20 | CHF 326.56 | −13% |
| Merck & Co MRK | $143.81 | $129.26 | −10% |
| Novartis AG NOVN | CHF 118.06 | CHF 121.90 | +3% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $421.51 | $463.66 | +10% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $149.05 | $198.77 | +33% |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $28.12 | $24.87 | −12% |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | $62.40 | $75.96 | +22% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €46.32 versus a price of €45.80, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1BAYN?
Our model-based fair value for Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is €46.32 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €45.80.
What is the quality score of 1BAYN?
Bayer Aktiengesellschaft has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €46.32 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €23.70, optimistic scenario €74.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bayer Aktiengesellschaft stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €46.32, about +1% upside versus a price of €45.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €23.70, optimistic scenario €74.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
Bayer Aktiengesellschaft reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €45.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Bayer Aktiengesellschaft pay a dividend?
Bayer Aktiengesellschaft currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.24% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bayer Aktiengesellschaft would have to grow free cash flow by +14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +0.8 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1BAYN use?
Our models discount Bayer Aktiengesellschaft at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bayer Aktiengesellschaft that is +14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Bayer Aktiengesellschaft grew +0.8 % a year. The price currently implies +14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (+14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.65 %: that much free cash flow Bayer Aktiengesellschaft produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bayer Aktiengesellschaft it is €46.32 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of €45.80. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bayer Aktiengesellschaft stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 1BAYN trades below its calculated fair value: price €45.80, fair value €46.32, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1BAYN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€45.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€46.32). For Bayer Aktiengesellschaft the two are €0.5200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bayer Aktiengesellschaft worth?
The market values Bayer Aktiengesellschaft at about €51.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is €45.80; our models calculate a fair value of €46.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1BAYN?
Our models span a range for Bayer Aktiengesellschaft: cautious scenario €23.70, base €46.32, optimistic €74.26 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price €45.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 1BAYN?
The PEG ratio of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is 4.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −6.9%, debt of 1.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1BAYN from its 52-week high?
Bayer Aktiengesellschaft trades at €45.80, about 14% below its 52-week high of €53.46 and 76% above the low of €26.05 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €46.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bayer Aktiengesellschaft?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bayer Aktiengesellschaft stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price €45.80, calculated fair value €46.32 (+1%), Quality Score 49/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1BAYN calculated?
We run Bayer Aktiengesellschaft through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €46.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bayer Aktiengesellschaft currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €45.80. Our model-based fair value is €46.32, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bayer Aktiengesellschaft right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€23.70 to €74.26). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft
How large is the market capitalisation of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
The market capitalisation of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is €51.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is 1.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
Earnings per share at Bayer Aktiengesellschaft are €−2.39. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
The dividend yield of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is 0.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
The net margin of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is −7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
The operating margin of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is 26.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
Revenue at Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN)?
Earnings per share at Bayer Aktiengesellschaft are growing +113% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (1BAYN) carry?
The net debt of Bayer Aktiengesellschaft is €28.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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