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Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alphabet Inc €243, price €304, upside -20.0%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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AI
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Alphabet Inc
1GOOGL · MIOvervalued / MonitorQuality growthQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value €243.04 · Overvalued (−20.0%)
✓Quality 68/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +12.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 37.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.3% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 98/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €80.47 – €346.59 · fair‑value band €133.60 – €325.64 · the €303.75 price screens above the €243.04 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments.
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Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in Google Play and YouTube; and devices, as well as the provision of YouTube consumer subscription services, such as YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, NFL Sunday Ticket, and Google One. The Google Cloud segment offers consumption-based fees and subscriptions for AI solutions, including AI infrastructure, Vertex AI platform, and Gemini enterprise. It also provides cybersecurity, and data and analytics services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Drive, and Meet; and other enterprise services. The Other Bets segment sells transportation and internet services. Alphabet Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
Stock analysis
Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL) currently trades at €303.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €243.04, 20.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €204.61 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the €303.75 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €92.77, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €133.60 (bear) to €325.64 (bull), the price of €303.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Alphabet Inc reported revenue of $403B in FY2025 versus $283B in FY2022, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was $132B in FY2025, compounding +30.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €3.7T · P/E ratio 27.3 · P/S ratio 8.94 · EPS (TTM) €11.50 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 32.8% · Return on equity 38.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −20%, 1GOOGL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €133.60
Fair Value €243.04
Bull €325.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€8.06 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€76.14
€150.22
€291.05
71
EPV
€73.75
€86.97
€98.72
70
Growth DCF
€75.15
€142.27
€267.26
70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€76.14
€150.22
€291.05
71
Owner Earnings
€64.20
€126.84
€245.91
68
5Y Revenue Exit
€65.74
€120.12
€195.53
67
5Y EBITDA Exit
€87.27
€165.97
€267.56
69
5Y P/E Exit
€127.37
€251.35
€398.55
65
10Y Revenue Exit
€66.27
€120.73
€207.81
61
10Y EBITDA Exit
€83.38
€155.74
€271.49
62
10Y P/E Exit
€110.95
€220.96
€387.28
58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€66.05
€340.75
€471.10
58
Lynch FV
€93.08
€132.97
€172.86
56
PEG = 1.0
€93.08
€132.97
€172.86
52
EPV
€73.75
€86.97
€98.72
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€7.10
€15.51
€26.09
60
DDM Multi-Stage
€7.10
€12.70
€16.16
61
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€160.26
€213.68
€267.10
61
P/S Multiple
€77.71
€103.61
€129.51
56
P/B Multiple
€80.11
€106.81
€133.51
53
EV/EBIT
€112.63
€150.56
€188.49
65
EV/EBITDA
€98.16
€131.27
€164.37
66
EV/Revenue
€61.00
€87.64
€114.29
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€15.26
€20.45
€30.52
52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€75.15
€142.27
€267.26
70
Rev-Margin DCF
€65.74
€118.37
€188.79
67
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€61.70
€92.77
€215.39
65
ROIC Compounder
€86.26
€119.80
€164.53
67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€143.23
€204.61
€265.99
63
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
68/100
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Profitability
84
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
8
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
95
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+33.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 32%
2025 sits 85% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.8% a year for the price and +14.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+21.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+19.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+17.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+15.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+12.8%
1GOOGL screens overvalued: fair value 20% below the price. Compare with Meta Platforms, Inc →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
- Google Unveils New AI Model Gemini 4 Argon, Sending Alphabet Stock Higher
- Why the Market Dipped But Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) Gained Today
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €243.04 versus a price of €303.75, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1GOOGL?
Our model-based fair value for Alphabet Inc is €243.04 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €303.75.
What is the quality score of 1GOOGL?
Alphabet Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €243.04 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €133.60, optimistic scenario €325.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alphabet Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €243.04, about −20% upside versus a price of €303.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €133.60, optimistic scenario €325.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
Alphabet Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $422B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Alphabet Inc pay a dividend?
Alphabet Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.28% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alphabet Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +35.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1GOOGL use?
Our models discount Alphabet Inc at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.24, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alphabet Inc that is +35.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Alphabet Inc grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies +35.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alphabet Inc (+35.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.77 %: that much free cash flow Alphabet Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alphabet Inc it is €243.04 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €303.75. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alphabet Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 1GOOGL trades above its calculated fair value: price €303.75, fair value €243.04, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1GOOGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€303.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€243.04). For Alphabet Inc the two are €60.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alphabet Inc worth?
The market values Alphabet Inc at about €3.7T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €303.75; our models calculate a fair value of €243.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1GOOGL?
Our models span a range for Alphabet Inc: cautious scenario €133.60, base €243.04, optimistic €325.64 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €303.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 1GOOGL from its 52-week high?
Alphabet Inc trades at €303.75, about 12% below its 52-week high of €346.59 and 49% above the low of €204.14 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €243.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alphabet Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, Baidu, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alphabet Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €303.75, calculated fair value €243.04 (−20%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1GOOGL calculated?
We run Alphabet Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €243.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alphabet Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €303.75. Our model-based fair value is €243.04, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alphabet Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€133.60 to €325.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alphabet Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
The market capitalisation of Alphabet Inc is €3.7T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Alphabet Inc is 27.3 (as of Jul 3, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alphabet Inc is 8.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
Earnings per share at Alphabet Inc are €11.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
The dividend yield of Alphabet Inc is 0.3% (payout 7.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
The net margin of Alphabet Inc is 32.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alphabet Inc is 38.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alphabet Inc is 22.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
The operating margin of Alphabet Inc is 36.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
Revenue at Alphabet Inc is growing +21.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL)?
Earnings per share at Alphabet Inc are growing +82.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alphabet Inc (1GOOGL) carry?
The net debt of Alphabet Inc is $15.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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