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Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. SAR 16.05, price SAR 54.40, upside -70.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · SA · ISIN SA0007879147

SA Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Saudi Arabia Refineries Co.

2030 · SR

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value 16.05 SAR · Strongly overvalued (−71%)
!Quality 61/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 143.5% net margin (FY2025)
!negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (5/8)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

196.86 SAR 32.96 SAR Fair Value 16.05 SAR Jun 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 32.96 SAR – 196.86 SAR · fair‑value band 12.04 SAR – 20.07 SAR · the 54.40 SAR price screens above the 16.05 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Saudi Arabian Refineries Company, together with its subsidiary, engages in the extraction of crude oil in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

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Saudi Arabian Refineries Company, together with its subsidiary, engages in the extraction of crude oil in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company is involved in the construction of refineries and petrochemical plants; buying and selling of land and real estate; mining of nitrogen and potassium containing minerals; manufacture of organic chemicals, liquid, and compressed air; the production of primary gases; and management and leasing of owned or rented non-residential real estate properties, as well as dealing in securities. It also engages in investment activities. Saudi Arabian Refineries Company was incorporated in 1960 and is based in Jeddah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030) currently trades at 54.40 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.05 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 239.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: 12.04 SAR (bear) to 20.07 SAR (bull), the price of 54.40 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. reported revenue of −41.9M SAR in FY2025 versus 8.1M SAR in FY2021. Reported net income was −60.2M SAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 816M SAR (≈ $217M) · EPS (TTM) −3.77 SAR · Return on equity −17.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.2% · Operating margin 73.9% · Revenue (TTM) −39.2M SAR · Revenue growth (YoY) +40.2% · EPS growth (YoY) +175%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at −71%, 2030 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 12.04 SAR Fair Value 16.05 SAR Bull 20.07 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple 12.04 SAR 16.05 SAR 20.07 SAR 55
NCAV (Graham) 9.44 SAR 12.65 SAR 18.89 SAR 51
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple 12.04 SAR 16.05 SAR 20.07 SAR 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 9.44 SAR 12.65 SAR 18.89 SAR 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−54.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
79.3% (2018) → −40.4% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

2030 screens 239% overvalued. Compare with 3M Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/7 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 143% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 74% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 40% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.78× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 16
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €25.71 €9.10 −65%
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CK Hutchison Holdings 0001 HK$67.60 HK$135.20 +100%
SK Inc 034730 611,000 KRW 351,594 KRW −42%
Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 $57.30 $79.11 +38%
Kingboard Holdings 0148 HK$55.55 HK$85.25 +53%
SGH Limited SGH A$36.69 A$42.47 +16%

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Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. · Fair Value
16.05 SAR −239%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2030

Frequently asked questions

Is Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.05 SAR versus a price of 54.40 SAR, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2030?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. is 16.05 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 54.40 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2030?
Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.05 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.04 SAR, optimistic scenario 20.07 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.05 SAR, about −71% upside versus a price of 54.40 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.04 SAR, optimistic scenario 20.07 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. it is 16.05 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 54.40 SAR. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2030 trades above its calculated fair value: price 54.40 SAR, fair value 16.05 SAR, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2030?
No. The price is what the market pays today (54.40 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.05 SAR). For Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. the two are 38.35 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. worth?
The market values Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. at about 816M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 54.40 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 16.05 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2030?
Our models span a range for Saudi Arabia Refineries Co.: cautious scenario 12.04 SAR, base 16.05 SAR, optimistic 20.07 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 54.40 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −17.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2030 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. trades at 54.40 SAR, about 14% below its 52-week high of 63.00 SAR and 24% above the low of 44.00 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.05 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Arabia Refineries Co.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 54.40 SAR, calculated fair value 16.05 SAR (−71%), Quality Score 61/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2030 calculated?
We run Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.05 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 54.40 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 16.05 SAR, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.07 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co.

How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. is 816M SAR (≈ $217M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. are −3.77 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. is −17.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. is −5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
The operating margin of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. is 73.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030) generate?
Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. generates revenue of −39.2M SAR (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
Revenue at Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. is growing +40.2% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. are growing +175% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030) generate?
The free cash flow of Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. is −8.0M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. (2030) hold?
Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. holds more cash than debt, 24.3M SAR net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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