Saudi Arabian Refineries Company (2030) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SA · Market cap 701M SAR
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Share price −13.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (22.05 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (8.21 SAR to 22.05 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 30.07 SAR – 196.86 SAR · fair‑value band 8.21 SAR – 22.05 SAR · the 46.68 SAR price screens above the 15.42 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
Analysis
Saudi Arabian Refineries Company (2030) currently trades at 46.68 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.42 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 67.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Revenue grew 40.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -17.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 24.3M SAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 8.21 SAR (bear case) to 22.05 SAR (bull case); at 46.68 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -67%, 2030 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (16.05 SAR) versus Asset-Based (12.65 SAR). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Saudi Arabian Refineries Company, together with its subsidiary, engages in the extraction of crude oil in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Full company description
Saudi Arabian Refineries Company, together with its subsidiary, engages in the extraction of crude oil in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company is involved in the construction of refineries and petrochemical plants; buying and selling of land and real estate; mining of nitrogen and potassium containing minerals; manufacture of organic chemicals, liquid, and compressed air; the production of primary gases; and management and leasing of owned or rented non-residential real estate properties, as well as dealing in securities. It also engages in investment activities. Saudi Arabian Refineries Company was incorporated in 1960 and is based in Jeddah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Saudi Arabian Refineries Company reported revenue of −41.9M SAR in FY2025 versus 8.1M SAR in FY2021. Reported net income was −60.2M SAR in FY2025.
2030 screens 67% overvalued. Compare with CITIC Limited →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$11.28 | HK$22.56 | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 580,000 KRW | 497,919 KRW | -14% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,810 IDR | 9,620 IDR | +100% |
| The Siam Cement Public Company SCC | 254.00 THB | 199.40 THB | -21% |
| SRF Limited SRF | ₹2,875 | ₹1,053 | -63% |
| Empresas Copec S.A COPEC | 6,330 CLP | 10,879 CLP | +72% |
| Posco International Corporation 047050 | 50,900 KRW | 61,248 KRW | +20% |
| Tube Investments of India Limited TIINDIA | ₹2,940 | ₹559.30 | -81% |
| Doosan Corporation 000155 | 464,000 KRW | 75,620 KRW | -84% |
| Thermax Limited THERMAX | ₹4,809 | ₹1,087 | -77% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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