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Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Empresas Copec S.A. CLP 11,359, price CLP 6,550, upside +73.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · CL · ISIN CLP7847L1080

EC Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Empresas Copec S.A.

COPEC · SN

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value 11,359 CLP · Strongly undervalued (+73%)
!Quality 47/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

7,660 CLP 4,457 CLP Fair Value 11,359 CLP Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 4,457 CLP – 7,660 CLP · fair‑value band 8,398 CLP – 15,097 CLP · the 6,550 CLP price screens below the 11,359 CLP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Empresas Copec S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the natural resources and energy sectors in Chile and internationally. The company operates through Celulosa Arauco y Constitución S.A., Copec S.A., Abastible S.A., Sociedad Nacional de Oleoductos S.A., and Pesquera Iquique-Guanaye S.A. segments.

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Empresas Copec S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the natural resources and energy sectors in Chile and internationally. The company operates through Celulosa Arauco y Constitución S.A., Copec S.A., Abastible S.A., Sociedad Nacional de Oleoductos S.A., and Pesquera Iquique-Guanaye S.A. segments. It offers electric charging services, renewable energy, and energy storage and efficiency solutions; and operates service stations and convenience stores. The company also distributes liquid fuels, lubricants, liquefied gas, and natural gas; produces and sells kraft pulps, panels, and sawn timbers for the paper, construction, packaging, and furniture industries; transports gasoline, kerosene and diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas; and produces fishmeal, fish oil, and canned and frozen mussels. In addition, it engages in the forestry, fishing, and mining businesses; sale of beans, rice, chickpeas, and lentils under the San José brand; distribution of general mills' products and processed avocado pears; investment in electromobility and start-ups involving energy, mobility, convenience, and other projects; and electricity generation and distribution from renewable energies. It exports its products to Asia and America. The company was incorporated in 1934 and is based in Santiago, Chile. Empresas Copec S.A. is a subsidiary of AntarChile S.A.

Stock analysis

Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC) currently trades at 6,550 CLP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11,359 CLP, implying the stock looks roughly 42.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of 11,359 CLP per share, and 7 of the 7 models we run sit above the 6,550 CLP price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 7,092 CLP, and 0 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 8,398 CLP (bear) to 15,097 CLP (bull), the price of 6,550 CLP sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Empresas Copec S.A. reported revenue of $29.6B in FY2025 versus $24.8B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $877M in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 8.5T CLP (≈ $8.9B) · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) 613.22 CLP · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 73%, COPEC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 8,398 CLP Fair Value 11,359 CLP Bull 15,097 CLP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (450.11 CLP per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 8,341 CLP 8,668 CLP 8,764 CLP 76
Gordon GGM 4,718 CLP 8,947 CLP 14,251 CLP 66
DDM Multi-Stage 4,718 CLP 7,111 CLP 9,571 CLP 66
All 7 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 4,411 CLP 11,359 CLP 14,789 CLP 65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 4,718 CLP 8,947 CLP 14,251 CLP 66
DDM Multi-Stage 4,718 CLP 7,111 CLP 9,571 CLP 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 10,205 CLP 13,617 CLP 17,019 CLP 63
P/B Multiple 8,264 CLP 11,022 CLP 13,771 CLP 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 5,295 CLP 7,092 CLP 10,590 CLP 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 8,341 CLP 8,668 CLP 8,764 CLP 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+35.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.36% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 377 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside +73% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.65× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.62× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.29× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.22× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)30 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)28 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)68 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Empresas Copec S.A. · Fair Value
11,359 CLP +42%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Empresas Copec S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COPEC

Frequently asked questions

Is Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11,359 CLP versus a price of 6,550 CLP, about +73% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of COPEC?
Our model-based fair value for Empresas Copec S.A. is 11,359 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6,550 CLP.
What is the quality score of COPEC?
Empresas Copec S.A. has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 11,359 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8,398 CLP, optimistic scenario 15,097 CLP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Empresas Copec S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 11,359 CLP, about +73% upside versus a price of 6,550 CLP (undervalued). Cautious scenario 8,398 CLP, optimistic scenario 15,097 CLP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
Empresas Copec S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Empresas Copec S.A. pay a dividend?
Empresas Copec S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Empresas Copec S.A. it is 11,359 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 6,550 CLP. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Empresas Copec S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, COPEC trades below its calculated fair value: price 6,550 CLP, fair value 11,359 CLP, a gap of about +73% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COPEC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6,550 CLP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (11,359 CLP). For Empresas Copec S.A. the two are 4,809 CLP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Empresas Copec S.A. worth?
The market values Empresas Copec S.A. at about 8.5T CLP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 6,550 CLP; our models calculate a fair value of 11,359 CLP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COPEC?
Our models span a range for Empresas Copec S.A.: cautious scenario 8,398 CLP, base 11,359 CLP, optimistic 15,097 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 6,550 CLP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COPEC?
Empresas Copec S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 11,359 CLP is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of COPEC?
The PEG ratio of Empresas Copec S.A. is 3.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Empresas Copec S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COPEC from its 52-week high?
Empresas Copec S.A. trades at 6,550 CLP, about 14% below its 52-week high of 7,660 CLP and 14% above the low of 5,751 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 11,359 CLP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Empresas Copec S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Empresas Copec S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 6,550 CLP, calculated fair value 11,359 CLP (+73%), Quality Score 47/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COPEC calculated?
We run Empresas Copec S.A. through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 11,359 CLP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Empresas Copec S.A. currently trades 73 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 6,550 CLP. Our model-based fair value is 11,359 CLP, about +73% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Empresas Copec S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (8,398 CLP). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC) come from?
Earnings per share at Empresas Copec S.A. grew +5.5 % a year from 2011 to 2022. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin +2.3 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Empresas Copec S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
The market capitalisation of Empresas Copec S.A. is 8.5T CLP (≈ $8.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Empresas Copec S.A. is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
Earnings per share at Empresas Copec S.A. are 613.22 CLP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
The dividend yield of Empresas Copec S.A. is 0.0% (payout 0.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
The net margin of Empresas Copec S.A. is 3.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Empresas Copec S.A. is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Empresas Copec S.A. is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
The operating margin of Empresas Copec S.A. is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
Revenue at Empresas Copec S.A. is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC)?
Earnings per share at Empresas Copec S.A. are growing +30.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC) generate?
The free cash flow of Empresas Copec S.A. is −$194M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC) carry?
The net debt of Empresas Copec S.A. is $8.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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