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Union Medical Healthcare Ltd (2138) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$476M

UM Union Medical Healthcare Ltd 2138 · HK
PriceHK$0.4450
Fair ValueHK$0.3142
Upside-29.4%
Quality51/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -4.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/11)
Narrow moat 8/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.2305 – HK$0.3142 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.3175 to HK$0.3142 (−1.0%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +17.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3142). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$15.76 HK$0.3500 Fair Value HK$0.3142 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3500 – HK$15.76 · fair‑value band HK$0.2305 – HK$0.3142 · the HK$0.4450 price screens above the HK$0.3142 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Union Medical Healthcare Ltd (2138) currently trades at HK$0.4450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3142, implying the stock looks roughly 29.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Union Medical Healthcare Ltd generated revenue of HK$4.0B at a net margin of -4.8%. Revenue declined 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.2%. Net debt stands at HK$491M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2305 (bear case) to HK$0.3142 (bull case); at HK$0.4450, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -29%, 2138 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$6.67 HK$10.71 HK$16.69 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.90 HK$3.66 HK$4.68 74
ROIC Compounder HK$0.6200 HK$0.6500 HK$0.6700 72
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$6.81 HK$11.53 HK$19.04 38
Owner Earnings HK$2.00 HK$3.18 HK$5.05 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.90 HK$3.56 HK$4.24 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.72 HK$9.52 HK$14.31 41
10Y Revenue Exit HK$4.31 HK$5.45 HK$6.86 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$6.05 HK$9.51 HK$14.77 37
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$0.6200 HK$0.6500 HK$0.6700 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0800 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1900 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0800 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1500 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$0.8000 HK$0.9400 HK$1.07 53
EV/EBITDA HK$5.50 HK$7.20 HK$8.90 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.6700 HK$0.7900 HK$0.9000 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.5900 HK$0.7900 HK$1.18 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$6.67 HK$10.71 HK$16.69 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.90 HK$3.66 HK$4.68 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$0.6200 HK$0.6500 HK$0.6700 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$5.45) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$4.0B
Revenue growth (YoY) -6.4%
Net margin -4.8%
Return on equity -6.2%
Free cash flow HK$686M FY2025
Operating margin 2.1%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.1600
EPS growth (YoY) +112%
Net debt HK$491M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 30
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

EC Healthcare provides medical and healthcare services in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, and Taiwan. It operates through Medical; Aesthetic Medical and Beauty and Wellness; and Veterinary and Other segments.

Full company description

EC Healthcare provides medical and healthcare services in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, and Taiwan. It operates through Medical; Aesthetic Medical and Beauty and Wellness; and Veterinary and Other segments. The company offers health checkups and screening, vaccinations, laboratory testing, imaging diagnostics, dental care, and pain management services; quasi-medical and chiropractic services; and aesthetic medical, beauty, haircare, and wellness services. It also provides general and family medicine, musculoskeletal health, eye care, fertility and women's health, men's and children's health, digestive health, chronic disease management, Chinese and sports medicine, corporate medicine and work rehabilitation, preventive screening, rehabilitation and homecare, heart and vascular health, oncology and cancer, and allergies and immunology services. In addition, the company operates veterinary hospitals and clinics that provide medical and surgical procedures, health checks, blood tests, 24-hour emergency and inpatient, computer scanning, endoscopy, and isolation wards, etc.; offers cosmetics; leases and distributes aesthetic devices; owns trademarks; and sells skincare, healthcare, and beauty products. Further, it engages in property investment; healthcare machine operation; beauty brand management and cosmetic business development; administrative, management, and marketing; electric vehicle charging infrastructure; scientific instruments; lifestyle enhancement; audio engineering and acoustic technology; intelligent transportation systems; multi-channel networking; biotechnology, life sciences, genomic data, and molecular diagnostics; and travel agency services. It offers its products and services under the PRODERMA LAB, Swissline, Suissebeaute, and re:HEALTH brands. The company was formerly known as Union Medical Healthcare Limited and changed its name to EC Healthcare in April 2021. EC Healthcare was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Union Medical Healthcare Ltd reported revenue of HK$3.8B in FY2026 versus HK$2.9B in FY2022, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$403M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$3.8B
Latest YoY
−8.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.6%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.8%
Revenue +6.6%/yr
FY22 HK$2.9B
FY23 HK$3.9B
FY24 HK$4.2B
FY25 HK$4.1B
FY26 HK$3.8B
Net income
FY22 HK$198M
FY23 HK$69.7M
FY24 −HK$18.9M
FY25 −HK$167M
FY26 −HK$403M

2138 screens 29% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Union Medical Healthcare Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2138

Peer Group

Medical Care Facilities · 266 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −30% · Below median
Return on assets -0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.21× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 26
FUTURE 0 · sector 23
PAST 0 · sector 29
HEALTH 90 · sector 90
DIVIDEND 50 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Union Medical Healthcare Ltd (2138) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3142 versus a price of HK$0.4450, about −29% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2138?
Our model-based fair value for Union Medical Healthcare Ltd is HK$0.3142 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.4450.
What is the quality score of 2138?
Union Medical Healthcare Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Union Medical Healthcare Ltd (2138)?
Union Medical Healthcare Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2138?
The net profit margin of Union Medical Healthcare Ltd is about -4.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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