Union Medical Healthcare Ltd (2138) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$476M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.3175 to HK$0.3142 (−1.0%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +17.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3142). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3500 – HK$15.76 · fair‑value band HK$0.2305 – HK$0.3142 · the HK$0.4450 price screens above the HK$0.3142 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Union Medical Healthcare Ltd (2138) currently trades at HK$0.4450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3142, implying the stock looks roughly 29.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Union Medical Healthcare Ltd generated revenue of HK$4.0B at a net margin of -4.8%. Revenue declined 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.2%. Net debt stands at HK$491M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2305 (bear case) to HK$0.3142 (bull case); at HK$0.4450, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -29%, 2138 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$5.45) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
EC Healthcare provides medical and healthcare services in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, and Taiwan. It operates through Medical; Aesthetic Medical and Beauty and Wellness; and Veterinary and Other segments.
Full company description
EC Healthcare provides medical and healthcare services in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, and Taiwan. It operates through Medical; Aesthetic Medical and Beauty and Wellness; and Veterinary and Other segments. The company offers health checkups and screening, vaccinations, laboratory testing, imaging diagnostics, dental care, and pain management services; quasi-medical and chiropractic services; and aesthetic medical, beauty, haircare, and wellness services. It also provides general and family medicine, musculoskeletal health, eye care, fertility and women's health, men's and children's health, digestive health, chronic disease management, Chinese and sports medicine, corporate medicine and work rehabilitation, preventive screening, rehabilitation and homecare, heart and vascular health, oncology and cancer, and allergies and immunology services. In addition, the company operates veterinary hospitals and clinics that provide medical and surgical procedures, health checks, blood tests, 24-hour emergency and inpatient, computer scanning, endoscopy, and isolation wards, etc.; offers cosmetics; leases and distributes aesthetic devices; owns trademarks; and sells skincare, healthcare, and beauty products. Further, it engages in property investment; healthcare machine operation; beauty brand management and cosmetic business development; administrative, management, and marketing; electric vehicle charging infrastructure; scientific instruments; lifestyle enhancement; audio engineering and acoustic technology; intelligent transportation systems; multi-channel networking; biotechnology, life sciences, genomic data, and molecular diagnostics; and travel agency services. It offers its products and services under the PRODERMA LAB, Swissline, Suissebeaute, and re:HEALTH brands. The company was formerly known as Union Medical Healthcare Limited and changed its name to EC Healthcare in April 2021. EC Healthcare was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Union Medical Healthcare Ltd reported revenue of HK$3.8B in FY2026 versus HK$2.9B in FY2022, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$403M in FY2026.
2138 screens 29% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 266 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $414.59 | $547.67 | +32% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €46.82 | €32.15 | -31% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 235.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | -52% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.67 SGD | 1.44 SGD | -46% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $266.79 | $330.25 | +24% |
| Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 | R$33.97 | R$47.31 | +39% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,565 | ₹2,955 | -65% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.87 | ¥7.67 | -14% |
| Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH | ₹1,008 | ₹284.87 | -72% |
| Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company BDMS | 19.70 THB | 18.57 THB | -6% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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